Men's College Basketball Tournament: Top 4 Seeds
K 80.62 contracts
1
111
Men's College Basketball Tournament: Top 4 Seeds
K 80.62 contracts
1
111
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 80.62 contracts
Reported volume · provider units
111
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
About This Event
Top 4 Seeds (2027) If X men's college basketball team is selected as a top 4 seed in the 2027 Division I Men's College Basketball Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes. For the purposes of this market, a top 4 seed is considered any team that is selected as a #1, #2, #3, or #4 seed in the 2027 Division I Men's College Basketball Tournament. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the NCAA. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This saved analysis is awaiting a background update. Its prices and claims may be outdated; compare them with the dated market data above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The supplied Kalshi event asks whether a team will be selected as a top four seed in the 2027 Division I Men's College Basketball Tournament. The rules state: "If X men's college basketball team is selected as a top 4 seed in the 2027 Division I Men's College Basketball Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes." A top four seed is defined as "any team that is selected as a #1, #2, #3, or #4 seed in the 2027 Division I Men's College Basketball Tournament" [1]. Each team has its own Yes or No contract, so a price on one team reflects only that team's question. The rules also say the market "will close and expire early if the event occurs" [1].
Reading the snapshot
The market data was observed at 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z and retrieved at 2026-10-15T22:44:32.048Z [1]. These are the times of the saved snapshot. They do not show current prices, and the figures below should not be read as today's live levels.
In this sample, Yes prices range from 0.48 for Gonzaga to 0.87 for Florida [1]. Duke is at 0.865 and Illinois at 0.77 [1]. Each price is a snapshot, not an executable quote or a verified probability. The differences between teams compare separate contracts on the same event, but they do not show that one team is more likely than another in any verified sense.
The sample is partial. The coverage record shows 12 included markets out of 111 for this provider event [1]. The selection rule orders markets by Yes price, so the included set is not the full field. The evidence does not give prices for the other 99 markets, so no conclusion about their prices should be drawn.
The listed close time needs care. The market records show an end date of 2027-05-02T14:00:00.000Z [1]. The event excerpt, however, says the listed end time is "not supplied" [1]. That date is a contract field, not an announced selection date, and early closure is possible if the event occurs.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why any price changed or what drives the current levels. It contains no trader counts, volume figures, news, or historical accuracy data. Prices from different contracts or platforms should not be averaged or treated as an arbitrage signal without matching wording and close times.
References
- Kalshi: Men's College Basketball Tournament: Top 4 Seeds. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Kalshi event titled "Men's College Basketball Tournament: Top 4 Seeds." The event is about the 2027 Division I Men's College Basketball Tournament. Its contract rules say that if a men's college basketball team is selected as a top 4 seed in that tournament, the market resolves to Yes [1]. The rules define a top 4 seed as any team selected as a #1, #2, #3, or #4 seed [1]. The rules also state that the market will close and expire early if the event occurs [1]. The event is organized as a set of single-team markets. Each market asks whether one named team will be selected as a top 4 seed, and each has a Yes outcome and a No outcome. The teams in the saved sample include Florida, Duke, Illinois, UConn, Texas, Houston, Arizona, Louisville, Michigan St., Marquette, Arkansas, and Gonzaga. The included markets were chosen by a ranking rule based on Yes price, so this list reflects that selection method rather than a full or random set of teams. Each market shows a Yes price and a No price at the time of the snapshot. These prices are snapshots, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. A market's volume does not indicate its liquidity or how many traders took part. The provider event listing does not supply an end time [1]. The individual market records carry a May 2, 2027 date, but that is a contract field and not an announced date for when seeds will be selected or when the event will occur.
Historical Context
The market refers to the 2027 tournament, but the supplied background covers the 2025–26 season. The 2026 Ivy League Men's Basketball Tournament was held March 14–15, 2026, at Newman Arena on the campus of Cornell University, and Penn won the event and the league's automatic bid to the 2026 NCAA Tournament [2]. The 2026 NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament involved 68 teams in a single-elimination format and concluded with the championship game on April 6, 2026, at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Michigan won that title, its first national championship since 1989 [3]. These are past events and do not describe the 2027 bracket or seeding.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether a specific men's college basketball team will be selected as a #1, #2, #3, or #4 seed in the 2027 Division I Men's College Basketball Tournament [1]. A Yes outcome requires that selection, and the rules define the top 4 seed category by seed line [1]. Because each team has its own market, the event allows comparison of how the market prices different programs for the same question. The supplied background shows how the NCAA tournament has previously been structured and how conference tournaments can supply automatic bids [2][3], but it does not establish how the 2027 seeds will be determined.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What must happen for a market to resolve to Yes?
The market resolves to Yes if the named men's college basketball team is selected as a top 4 seed in the 2027 Division I Men's College Basketball Tournament [1]. The rules define a top 4 seed as a team selected as a #1, #2, #3, or #4 seed [1].
Does a market for a team mean that team's seed is already known?
No. The supplied event rules describe the conditions for resolution in the 2027 tournament, and the listing does not supply an end time [1]. The supplied background does not give a seed-selection date for 2027.
Will the market close early?
The rules state that the market will close and expire early if the event occurs [1].
Is this market connected to the NCAA?
According to the event rules, Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the NCAA [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
0
No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
