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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Next First Minister of Wales?

Name: Next First Minister of Wales?
End: 2026-05-07T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$2.62K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Next First Minister of Wales?

Vol

$2.62K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $2.62K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.62K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will Rhun ap Iorwerth be the next First Minister of Wales following the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Rhun ap Iorwerth be the next First Minister of Wales following the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections?	Poly	91%
Will Darren Millar be the next First Minister of Wales following the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections?	Poly	29%
Will Eluned Morgan be the next First Minister of Wales following the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections?	Poly	19%
Will Jane Dodds be the next First Minister of Wales following the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections?	Poly	19%
Will Anthony Slaughter be the next First Minister of Wales following the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections?	Poly	5%
Will Dan Thomas be the next First Minister of Wales following the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections?	Poly	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

91%

Top Probability

$2.62K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Wales following the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such First Minister is appointed by Mar

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Next First Minister of Wales?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 7, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026.

This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Wales following the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such First Minister is appointed by Mar

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026.

This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Wales following the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Mi"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $12.6K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.21)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Darren Millar be the next First Minister of Wales following the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 7, 2026): Vol $212
  DATA: [Yes: 28.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.2% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Jane Dodds be the next First Minister of Wales following the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 7, 2026): Vol $176
  DATA: [Yes: 18.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.2% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Dan Thomas be the next First Minister of Wales following the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 7, 2026): Vol $391
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Eluned Morgan be the next First Minister of Wales following the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 7, 2026): Vol $228
  DATA: [Yes: 19.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.7% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Rhun ap Iorwerth be the next First Minister of Wales following the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 7, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 91.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 9.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Anthony Slaughter be the next First Minister of Wales following the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 7, 2026): Vol $318
  DATA: [Yes: 4.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.1% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics