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Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary margin of victory?

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Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary margin of victory?

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Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 0% and 3%?

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Single-Platform Markets(12)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 0% and 3%?	Kalshi	14%
Will the margin of victory for David Crowley in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 0% and 3%?	Kalshi	14%
Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 6% and 9%?	Kalshi	13%
Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 3% and 6%?	Kalshi	12%
Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be at least 15%?	Kalshi	11%
Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 12% and 15%?	Kalshi	11%
Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 9% and 12%?	Kalshi	11%
Will the margin of victory for David Crowley in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 6% and 9%?	Kalshi	6%
Will the margin of victory for David Crowley in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 3% and 6%?	Kalshi	6%
Will the margin of victory for David Crowley in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 9% and 12%?	Kalshi	4%
Will the margin of victory for David Crowley in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be at least 15%?	Kalshi	3%
Will the margin of victory for David Crowley in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 12% and 15%?	Kalshi	3%

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About This Event

On Aug 11, 2026 If the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary falls within X to Y inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the vote share received by Francesca Hong minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Francesca Hong if Francesca Hong wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Francesca Hong loses. If Francesca Hong wi

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, July 21, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary margin of victory?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Aug 11, 2026

If the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary falls within X to Y inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the vote share received by Francesca Hong minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Francesca Hong if Francesca Hong wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Francesca Hong loses. If Francesca Hong wi

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary falls within 6% to 9%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by Francesca Hon"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 6% and 9%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 11, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be at least 15%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 11, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 3% and 6%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 11, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 12% and 15%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 11, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 9% and 12%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 11, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 0% and 3%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 11, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the margin of victory for David Crowley in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 6% and 9%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 11, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the margin of victory for David Crowley in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be at least 15%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 11, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the margin of victory for David Crowley in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 3% and 6%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 11, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the margin of victory for David Crowley in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 12% and 15%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 11, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the margin of victory for David Crowley in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 9% and 12%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 11, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the margin of victory for David Crowley in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 0% and 3%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 11, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary margin of victory?

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KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 0% and 3%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 13.5¢No 86.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 0% and 3%?

If the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary falls within 0% to 3%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by Francesca Hon

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for David Crowley in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 0% and 3%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 13.5¢No 86.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for David Crowley in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 0% and 3%?

If the margin of victory for David Crowley in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary falls within 0% to 3%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by David Crowley

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 6% and 9%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 12.5¢No 87.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 6% and 9%?

If the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary falls within 6% to 9%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by Francesca Hon

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 3% and 6%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 11.5¢No 88.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 3% and 6%?

If the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary falls within 3% to 6%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by Francesca Hon

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be at least 15%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 10.5¢No 89.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be at least 15%?

If the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary falls within 15% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by Francesca

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Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 0% and 3%?

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Events (1)

Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary margin of victory?

Markets (12)

Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 0% and 3%?

Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 0% and 3%?

Will the margin of victory for David Crowley in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 0% and 3%?

Will the margin of victory for David Crowley in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 0% and 3%?

Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 6% and 9%?

Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 6% and 9%?

Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 3% and 6%?

Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 3% and 6%?

Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be at least 15%?

Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be at least 15%?

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Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 0% and 3%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary margin of victory?

Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 0% and 3%?

Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 0% and 3%?

Will the margin of victory for David Crowley in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 0% and 3%?

Will the margin of victory for David Crowley in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 0% and 3%?

Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 6% and 9%?

Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 6% and 9%?

Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 3% and 6%?

Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 3% and 6%?

Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be at least 15%?

Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be at least 15%?

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