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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETEconomy

GDP growth in 2026

Name: GDP growth in 2026
End: 2027-01-29T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$27.49K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

GDP growth in 2026

Vol

$27.49K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $27.49K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $27.49K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will US GDP growth in 2026 be greater than 2.5%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will US GDP growth in 2026 be greater than 2.5%?	Poly	43%
Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?	Poly	17%
Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?	Poly	14%
Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 0.5% and 1.0%?	Poly	12%
Will US GDP growth in 2026 be less than 0.5%?	Poly	10%
Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?	Poly	7%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

43%

Top Probability

$27.49K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, July 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** GDP growth in 2026
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 29, 2027 (197 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: The relevant data will be

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.

If the reported value falls exactly between two"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $27.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $4.4K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 6.30)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will US GDP growth in 2026 be less than 0.5%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 29, 2027): Vol $3.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 0.5% and 1.0%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 29, 2027): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.3% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 29, 2027): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 29, 2027): Vol $15.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 29, 2027): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 17.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will US GDP growth in 2026 be greater than 2.5%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 29, 2027): Vol $4.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 43.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETEconomy