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This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be
Prediction markets currently assign a 78% probability that US GDP growth in 2026 will exceed 2.5%. This price, trading on Polymarket, indicates the consensus views sustained, above-trend growth as the most likely scenario. A 78% chance suggests the market sees this outcome as probable, but still accounts for a significant 22% chance of growth falling at or below 2.5%. The market has thin liquidity, with only $4,000 in volume spread across related contracts, meaning current prices may be more sensitive to individual trades and less established as a firm consensus.
The optimistic pricing is primarily driven by the market's long-term view of economic resilience. Current expectations likely incorporate the belief that the Federal Reserve will have successfully navigated a soft landing, with inflation controlled and interest rates normalized by 2026, providing a stable backdrop for growth. Furthermore, ongoing structural investments in areas like semiconductors, clean energy, and infrastructure, legislated in recent years, are expected to have fully matured by 2026, providing a tangible boost to productivity and economic capacity. The baseline assumption is that the US economy avoids a major recession in the interim period.
The primary risk to the current bullish odds is the potential for an economic downturn before 2026, which would lower the starting base and momentum for that year's growth figure. Key upcoming data on inflation, employment, and consumer spending through 2024 and 2025 will be critical indicators. A resurgence of inflation forcing prolonged restrictive monetary policy is a major downside catalyst. Conversely, odds for >2.5% growth could strengthen further if productivity data surprises to the upside, suggesting the recent investment wave is yielding stronger-than-expected returns. The market will closely monitor the BEA's advance estimate for Q4 2025 GDP, released in January 2026, as a crucial leading signal for the full 2026 trajectory.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on the United States real GDP growth rate for 2026, specifically the seasonally adjusted annual rate as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Advance Estimate for the fourth quarter of 2026. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of a nation's economic activity, representing the total monetary value of all finished goods and services produced within a country's borders in a specific time period. The real GDP growth rate adjusts for inflation, providing a clearer picture of actual economic expansion. The BEA's Advance Estimate, typically released in late January 2027 for Q4 2026, serves as the official resolution source, with the market using specific brackets to determine outcomes. Interest in this metric stems from its role as a primary indicator of economic health, influencing monetary policy, investment decisions, and political narratives. Analysts, investors, and policymakers closely track GDP projections to gauge the economy's trajectory following the post-pandemic recovery period and amidst evolving factors like technological adoption, demographic shifts, and global trade dynamics. The 2026 forecast sits at the intersection of current policy impacts and long-term structural trends, making it a focal point for economic debate.
U.S. GDP growth has exhibited significant volatility over recent decades, providing critical context for 2026 projections. Following the 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis, the economy experienced a prolonged but modest recovery, with annual real GDP growth averaging just 2.3% from 2010 through 2019. This period was marked by debates about 'secular stagnation' and a lower potential growth rate due to demographic aging and sluggish productivity. The COVID-19 pandemic then triggered an unprecedented contraction of 3.4% in 2020, followed by a robust rebound of 5.9% in 2021 as fiscal stimulus surged and economies reopened. Growth moderated to 1.9% in 2022 and 2.5% in 2023 as the Federal Reserve aggressively raised interest rates to combat high inflation. Historically, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has estimated the economy's long-term potential growth rate, a benchmark for sustainable expansion without inflationary pressure, at around 1.8% as of its 2024 projections. This historical arc from crisis to recovery to policy normalization sets the stage for evaluating whether 2026 will represent a return to this pre-pandemic trend, a sustained period of above-trend growth, or a slowdown. Past cycles show that growth outcomes are heavily influenced by the lagged effects of monetary policy, which typically take 12-18 months to fully impact the economy, meaning decisions made in 2024 and 2025 will be key determinants of 2026 performance.
The GDP growth rate for 2026 matters because it serves as a report card on the nation's economic health and policy effectiveness, with wide-ranging consequences. For households, stronger growth typically correlates with faster job creation, rising wages, and improved financial security, while weaker growth can signal hiring freezes or layoffs. For businesses, the growth rate influences capital investment plans, hiring decisions, and profit forecasts, shaping the overall business climate. Politically, the state of the economy in 2026 will heavily influence the national mood and policy debates leading into the 2028 presidential election cycle, with incumbents often judged on economic performance. Furthermore, the growth rate directly impacts the federal budget, as higher growth boosts tax revenues and can ease pressures related to the national debt, which exceeded $34 trillion in early 2024. Sustained growth is also essential for maintaining U.S. global economic influence and competitiveness, particularly in strategic sectors like technology and advanced manufacturing.
As of mid-2024, the U.S. economy has demonstrated unexpected resilience, with first-quarter 2024 GDP growth reported at a 1.6% annual rate, though slower than the strong quarters of 2023. The Federal Reserve has maintained its benchmark interest rate at a 23-year high to continue its battle against inflation, which has proven more persistent than anticipated. The central bank's latest Summary of Economic Projections from March 2024 indicated policymakers' median expectation for 2026 GDP growth is 1.8%, aligning with their view of long-run potential. However, forward-looking indicators are mixed. Consumer spending remains solid, supported by a strong labor market, but business investment sentiment is being weighed down by uncertainty over the future path of interest rates and geopolitical tensions. The Congressional Budget Office's February 2024 baseline projection forecast real GDP growth of 2.0% for 2026.
Nominal GDP growth measures the increase in the dollar value of economic output without adjusting for inflation. Real GDP growth adjusts nominal growth for changes in the price level (inflation), using a price index, to reflect the actual increase in the quantity of goods and services produced. For assessing economic health, real GDP growth is the standard metric because it isolates changes in actual production.
The commonly reported quarterly GDP growth rate is a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). It shows what the growth rate would be if the pace of change from that single quarter were sustained for a full year. It is calculated by compounding the quarter-over-quarter percentage change. For example, if output grows 0.5% from Q3 to Q4, the SAAR would be approximately 2.0%.
GDP is calculated as the sum of four major components: Personal Consumption Expenditures (consumer spending), Gross Private Domestic Investment (business investment and housing), Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment (government spending), and Net Exports of Goods and Services (exports minus imports). Consumer spending typically accounts for about two-thirds of total U.S. GDP.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 77% |
| Poly | 12% |
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| Poly | 6% |
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