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GroupPOLYMARKET

Which companies added to S&P 500 in Q4 2026?

Which companies added to S&P 500 in Q4 2026?
Vol

PM $14.6K

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Events

1

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Markets

12

Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Oct 29, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Okta (OKTA) at 51%.

Polymarket

  1. Okta (OKTA)51%
  2. Cheniere Energy (LNG)42.5%
  3. Credo Technology (CRDO)24%
  4. Astera Labs (ALAB)18%
  5. Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)15%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $14.6K

Reported volume · provider units

12

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 29, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC

About This Event

The S&P 500 undergoes quarterly reconstitution on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. The next rebalance is currently scheduled for December 18, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that the listed company will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the listed ticker must match the announced ticker added to the index. An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date. The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

KalshiFinancials
Companies removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4?

Companies removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4?

K 5.1K contracts
Will DICK'S Sporting Goods be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?Yes 83%
Will The Carlyle Group be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?Yes 83%
Will Deckers Outdoor be removed from the MSCI USA Index in Q4 2026?Yes 82.5%
+9 moreNext deadline Jan 7, 2027 UTC
KalshiTech
Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026?

Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026?

K 10.5K contracts
Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026? (Anthropic)Yes 90%
Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026? (OpenAI)Yes 83.5%
Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026? (Xiaomi)Yes 57.5%
+15 moreNext deadline Jan 31, 2027 UTC
PolymarketTech
How many Tesla deliveries in Q4 2026?

How many Tesla deliveries in Q4 2026?

PM $8.6K
Will Tesla deliver between 475000 and 500000 vehicles in Q4 2026Yes 24%
Will Tesla deliver between 500000 and 525000 vehicles in Q4 2026Yes 20%
Will Tesla deliver between 525000 and 550000 vehicles in Q4 2026Yes 17.8%
+6 moreNext deadline Mar 1, 2027 UTC
KalshiTech
Tesla energy deployment in Q4

Tesla energy deployment in Q4

K 6.1K contracts
Will Tesla report Above 8 GWh energy storage deployments (GWh) in Q4 2026?Yes 96%
Will Tesla report Above 10 GWh energy storage deployments (GWh) in Q4 2026?Yes 89.5%
Will Tesla report Above 12 GWh energy storage deployments (GWh) in Q4 2026?Yes 86.5%
+6 moreNext deadline May 2, 2027 UTC
PolymarketKalshiTech
Which companies will be added to the Pentagon’s Chinese military companies list?

Which companies will be added to the Pentagon’s Chinese military companies list?

PM $177.8K · K 2.2K contracts

Will DeepSeek be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

Kalshi: Will the United States Department of Defense announce the inclusion of DeepSeek as an expressly named entity on the unclassified §1260H list of Chinese military companies before Jul 1, 2027?

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 25.5%Rules differK Yes 28.5%

Will Moonshot AI be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

Kalshi: Will the United States Department of Defense announce the inclusion of Moonshot AI as an expressly named entity on the unclassified §1260H list of Chinese military companies before Jul 1, 2027?

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 16.5%Rules differK Yes 23%

Will Xiaomi be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

Kalshi: Will the United States Department of Defense announce the inclusion of Xiaomi as an expressly named entity on the unclassified §1260H list of Chinese military companies before Jul 1, 2027?

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 18.5%Rules differK Yes 18%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

4 saved comparisonsNext deadline Jul 1, 2027 UTC
KalshiTech
Shanghai Container Freight Index at end of 2026

Shanghai Container Freight Index at end of 2026

K 17.9K contracts
Will Shanghai Containerized Freight Index composite index for the final publication designated for calendar year 2026 be between 3,500 and 3,999.99?Yes 23.5%
Will Shanghai Containerized Freight Index composite index for the final publication designated for calendar year 2026 be between 4,000 and 4,499.99?Yes 19.5%
Will Shanghai Containerized Freight Index composite index for the final publication designated for calendar year 2026 be between 3,000 and 3,499.99?Yes 18.5%
+6 moreNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

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Same-question pairs

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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

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