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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech

How many Tesla deliveries in Q2 2026?

Name: How many Tesla deliveries in Q2 2026?
End: 2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$37.70K

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How many Tesla deliveries in Q2 2026?

Vol

$37.70K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $37.70K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $37.70K

100%

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

9 markets tracked

Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026	Poly	26%
Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026	Poly	21%
Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q2 2026	Poly	17%
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026	Poly	16%
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026	Poly	16%
Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q2 2026	Poly	4%
Will Tesla deliver between 325000 and 350000 vehicles in Q2 2026	Poly	2%
Will Tesla deliver between 300000 and 325000 vehicles in Q2 2026	Poly	1%
Will Tesla deliver less than 300000 vehicles in Q2 2026	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

26%

Top Probability

$37.70K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many Tesla deliveries in Q2 2026?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 30, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026.

If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026.

If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market wi"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $37.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $3.2K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 11.84)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Tesla deliver less than 300000 vehicles in Q2 2026
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $4.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Tesla deliver between 300000 and 325000 vehicles in Q2 2026
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $2.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Tesla deliver between 325000 and 350000 vehicles in Q2 2026
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $2.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q2 2026
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $7.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.4% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $3.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $7.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 21.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q2 2026
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $3.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $2.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 25.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.2% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $2.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 15.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.3% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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