Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Next French presidential election: 2nd place (1st round)

Total Volume

$756.00

Events

Markets

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Next French presidential election: 2nd place (1st round)

Vol

$756.00

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $756.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $756.00

100%

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

14 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(14)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?	Kalshi	37%
Will Édouard Philippe finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?	Kalshi	32%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?	Kalshi	7%
Will Marine Le Pen finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?	Kalshi	5%
Will Gabriel Attal finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?	Kalshi	5%
Will Jordan Bardella finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?	Kalshi	4%
Will François Hollande finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?	Kalshi	4%
Will Bruno Retailleau finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?	Kalshi	4%
Will Marine Tondelier finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?	Kalshi	3%
Will Xavier Bertrand finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?	Kalshi	2%
Will François Ruffin finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?	Kalshi	2%
Will Éric Zemmour finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?	Kalshi	2%
Will Dominique de Villepin finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?	Kalshi	2%
Will David Lisnard finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

37%

Top Probability

$756.00

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

On Apr 18, 2027 If X finishes in 2nd place in the first round of the next French presidential election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: For plurality voting: rank is based on the number of votes each candidate receives in the first round, as proclaimed by the Constitutional Council, whether or not a second round is held and regardless of who advances to or wins it. In case of exact ties, markets resolve

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Next French presidential election: 2nd place (1st round)
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Apr 18, 2027

If X finishes in 2nd place in the first round of the next French presidential election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: For plurality voting: rank is based on the number of votes each candidate receives in the first round, as proclaimed by the Constitutional Council, whether or not a second round is held and regardless of who advances to or wins it. In case of exact ties, markets resolve 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Xavier Bertrand finishes in 2nd place in the first round of the next French presidential election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Ranking is determined by the specified counting method:
For plurality voting: rank is based on the number of vote"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $756
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Xavier Bertrand finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 18, 2028): Vol $54
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Raphaël Glucksmann finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 18, 2028): Vol $54
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Marine Tondelier finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 18, 2028): Vol $54
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Marine Le Pen finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 18, 2028): Vol $54
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 18, 2028): Vol $54
  DATA: [Yes: 36.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Jordan Bardella finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 18, 2028): Vol $54
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Gabriel Attal finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 18, 2028): Vol $54
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will François Ruffin finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 18, 2028): Vol $54
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will François Hollande finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 18, 2028): Vol $54
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Éric Zemmour finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 18, 2028): Vol $54
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Édouard Philippe finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 18, 2028): Vol $54
  DATA: [Yes: 32.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Dominique de Villepin finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 18, 2028): Vol $54
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will David Lisnard finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 18, 2028): Vol $54
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Bruno Retailleau finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 18, 2028): Vol $54
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Next French presidential election: 2nd place (1st round)

Volume$756.00

Markets14

14 of 14

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KALSHI

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 36.5¢No 63.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?

If Jean-Luc Mélenchon finishes in 2nd place in the first round of the next French presidential election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: For plurality voting: rank is based on the number of v

KALSHI

Will Édouard Philippe finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 32.0¢No 68.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Édouard Philippe finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?

If Édouard Philippe finishes in 2nd place in the first round of the next French presidential election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: For plurality voting: rank is based on the number of vot

KALSHI

Will Raphaël Glucksmann finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 7.0¢No 93.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Raphaël Glucksmann finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?

If Raphaël Glucksmann finishes in 2nd place in the first round of the next French presidential election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: For plurality voting: rank is based on the number of v

KALSHI

Will Marine Le Pen finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 5.0¢No 95.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Marine Le Pen finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?

If Marine Le Pen finishes in 2nd place in the first round of the next French presidential election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: For plurality voting: rank is based on the number of votes

KALSHI

Will Gabriel Attal finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Gabriel Attal finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?

If Gabriel Attal finishes in 2nd place in the first round of the next French presidential election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: For plurality voting: rank is based on the number of votes

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8¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/7QIxLE" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Next French presidential election: 2nd place (1st round)"></iframe>

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Next French presidential election: 2nd place (1st round)

Next French presidential election: 2nd place (1st round)

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Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Next French presidential election: 2nd place (1st round)

Markets (14)

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?

Will Édouard Philippe finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?

Will Édouard Philippe finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?

Will Raphaël Glucksmann finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?

Will Raphaël Glucksmann finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?

Will Marine Le Pen finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?

Will Marine Le Pen finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?

Will Gabriel Attal finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?

Will Gabriel Attal finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?

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Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Next French presidential election: 2nd place (1st round)

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?

Will Édouard Philippe finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?

Will Édouard Philippe finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?

Will Raphaël Glucksmann finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?

Will Raphaël Glucksmann finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?

Will Marine Le Pen finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?

Will Marine Le Pen finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?

Will Gabriel Attal finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?

Will Gabriel Attal finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election?

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