Delaware Senate Election: Turnout
PM $17.4K
1
10
Delaware Senate Election: Turnout
PM $17.4K
1
10
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is 375K-400K at 27.3%.
Polymarket
- 375K-400K27.3%
- 325K-350K18.5%
- 350K-375K17.5%
- 400K-425K13.5%
- 300K-325K9.6%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $17.4K
Reported volume · provider units
10
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Delaware. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Delaware, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-17T15:00:06.111Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This saved Polymarket event asks how many votes will be counted in the 2026 midterm Senate race in Delaware. The rules state that the market "will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Delaware" [1]. Invalidated or blank votes are excluded, and in ranked-choice or preferential systems "the first-round vote total will be used" [1]. If a reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher bracket [1]. If results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the lowest range bracket [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. This is the close time listed in the contract, not a confirmed announcement of when results will be published.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-17T15:00:06.111Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-17T16:03:30.437Z [1]. These figures are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. All ten saved brackets for this event are included, so this sample is complete for the saved event. The provider notes, however, that this does not establish that every real-world outcome is listed [1].
The highest Yes price is 0.2435 for 375,000 to 400,000 votes. The next are 0.19 for 325,000 to 350,000 and 0.185 for 350,000 to 375,000. The lowest saved Yes price is 0.007 for 275,000 to 300,000 votes. The Yes prices across all ten brackets sum to about 0.969, so they should not be read as calibrated probabilities.
Brackets are worded differently at their edges, so compare them carefully. Adjacent ranges such as "between 375,000 and 400,000" and "between 400,000 and 425,000" are separate contracts. The excerpt does not include volume data, so this snapshot says nothing about liquidity.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices are at these levels. It contains no current vote counts, turnout forecasts, or trader counts. Because the observation dates from October 17, 2026, these prices may no longer reflect the market. Other platforms may define the same election differently, so their prices should not be combined with these.
References
- Polymarket: Delaware Senate Election: Turnout. Provider data observed 2026-10-17T15:00:06.111Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 17, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
PredictPedia tracks a Polymarket event titled "Delaware Senate Election: Turnout." The event does not ask who wins the race. It asks how many votes will be counted. Its listed rules say it will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Delaware [1]. The contract uses official results. The primary resolution source is the official results of that election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying results. The rules also allow an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting to be used [1]. Votes that are certified for candidates or non-candidate options are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total is used [1]. The saved event lists ten vote-count brackets, from less than 275,000 up to 475,000 or more, with a bracket between each step [1]. Each bracket is a separate yes or no contract. The listed end time is 2026-11-04 04:59 UTC [1]. That is a date written into the contract rules, not an announced count date or confirmed result timing. The saved provider listing was observed at 2026-10-17 15:00 UTC [1]. The listing shows prices at that moment only. They should not be read as current prices or as settled probabilities.
Historical Context
The United States holds midterm elections near the midpoint of a president's four-year term, on Election Day, the first Tuesday in November. Federal offices up for election in midterms include all 435 House seats and 33 or 34 of the 100 Senate seats [2]. Delaware's previous comparable Senate contest offers a reference point for how these elections have been reported. The 2012 United States Senate election in Delaware took place on November 6, 2012, alongside the presidential election and other federal and state races. Incumbent Democrat Tom Carper won re-election to a third term in a landslide [3]. That 2012 result does not determine the 2026 vote total, which the contract will measure separately.
Why It Matters
The contract measures turnout as a count of valid votes, not a share of registered voters and not a count of traders. Its brackets divide the possible totals into ranges, so each contract covers one range [1]. Because the rules exclude invalidated and blank votes, the resolving figure may differ from the raw number of ballots cast [1]. The resolution rules also set how edge cases are handled. If a reported value falls exactly on a boundary between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher bracket. If the official results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1]. These rules matter for interpreting any listed price, because the outcome depends on the certified count and the contract's own tie and timing provisions, not on any single news report.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-17 at 15:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What total does this contract measure?
It measures the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Delaware. Invalidated or blank votes are not included, and in ranked-choice or preferential systems the first-round total is used [1].
Which source decides the result?
The primary resolution source is the official results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the election. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1].
What happens if a count falls exactly between two brackets?
The contract resolves to the higher range bracket [1].
What happens if results are not definitively known in time?
If the results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the lowest range bracket [1].
Why does the Delaware turnout event matter as a reference for past races?
The 2012 Delaware Senate election took place on November 6, 2012, and Tom Carper won re-election in a landslide [3]. That historical race does not establish the 2026 count, which the contract resolves separately under its own rules [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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