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GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Bluest state to elect a Republican senator in 2026?

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$173.22K

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Bluest state to elect a Republican senator in 2026?

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$173.22K

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20 markets tracked

Will Maine be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

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Single-Platform Markets(20)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Maine be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?	Kalshi	38%
Will Florida be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?	Kalshi	30%
Will Ohio be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?	Kalshi	8%
Will Michigan be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?	Kalshi	8%
Will Minnesota be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?	Kalshi	3%
Will New Hampshire be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Alaska be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Virginia be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Texas be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Rhode Island be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Oregon be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?	Kalshi	1%
Will New Mexico be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?	Kalshi	1%
Will New Jersey be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?	Kalshi	1%
Will North Carolina be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Massachusetts be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Illinois be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Iowa be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Georgia be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Delaware be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Colorado be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

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38%

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$173.22K

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About This Event

Before Jan 3, 2027 If X is the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes. X state's 2024 margin is Kamala Harris's share of that state's certified 2024 presidential vote minus Donald Trump's share, per the Federal Election Commission's official 2024 presidential general election results. The margin is negative where Trump won. X state qualifies only if the certifi

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Bluest state to elect a Republican senator in 2026?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Jan 3, 2027

If X is the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes. X state's 2024 margin is Kamala Harris's share of that state's certified 2024 presidential vote minus Donald Trump's share, per the Federal Election Commission's official 2024 presidential general election results. The margin is negative where Trump won. X state qualifies only if the certifi

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Virginia is the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A state's 2024 margin is Kamala Harris's share of that state's certified 2024 presidenti"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $173.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Virginia be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $11.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Texas be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $11.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Rhode Island be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $6.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Oregon be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $11.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Ohio be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will New Mexico be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $12.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will New Jersey be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $11.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will New Hampshire be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $413
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will North Carolina be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $6.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Minnesota be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Michigan be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Maine be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 37.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Massachusetts be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $11.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Illinois be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $11.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Iowa be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $4.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Georgia be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $9.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Florida be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $9.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 30.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Delaware be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $16.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Colorado be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $18.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will Alaska be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $14.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Bluest state to elect a Republican senator in 2026?

Volume$173.22K

Markets20

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KALSHI

Will Maine be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 37.5¢No 62.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Maine be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

If Maine is the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A state's 2024 margin is Kamala Harris's share of that state's certified 2024 presidential

KALSHI

Will Florida be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 30.0¢No 70.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Florida be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

If Florida is the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A state's 2024 margin is Kamala Harris's share of that state's certified 2024 presidentia

KALSHI

Will Ohio be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 8.0¢No 92.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Ohio be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

If Ohio is the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A state's 2024 margin is Kamala Harris's share of that state's certified 2024 presidential v

KALSHI

Will Michigan be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 7.5¢No 92.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Michigan be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

If Michigan is the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A state's 2024 margin is Kamala Harris's share of that state's certified 2024 presidenti

KALSHI

Will Minnesota be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 2.5¢No 97.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Minnesota be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

If Minnesota is the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A state's 2024 margin is Kamala Harris's share of that state's certified 2024 president

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/rwLJoM" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Bluest state to elect a Republican senator in 2026?"></iframe>

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Bluest state to elect a Republican senator in 2026?

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Will Maine be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

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Events (1)

Bluest state to elect a Republican senator in 2026?

Markets (20)

Will Maine be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

Will Maine be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

Will Florida be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

Will Florida be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

Will Ohio be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

Will Ohio be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

Will Michigan be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

Will Michigan be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

Will Minnesota be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

Will Minnesota be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

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Will Maine be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Bluest state to elect a Republican senator in 2026?

Will Maine be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

Will Maine be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

Will Florida be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

Will Florida be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

Will Ohio be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

Will Ohio be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

Will Michigan be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

Will Michigan be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

Will Minnesota be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

Will Minnesota be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

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