Texas Republican Senate Runoff: Margin of Victory | PredictPedia

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

10 markets tracked

Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 0% and 5%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 0% and 5%?	Kalshi	32%
Will the margin of victory for John Cornyn in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 0% and 5%?	Kalshi	27%
Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 5% and 10%?	Kalshi	16%
Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 20% and 100%?	Kalshi	9%
Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 10% and 15%?	Kalshi	9%
Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 15% and 20%?	Kalshi	6%
Will the margin of victory for John Cornyn in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 5% and 10%?	Kalshi	3%
Will the margin of victory for John Cornyn in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 10% and 15%?	Kalshi	2%
Will the margin of victory for John Cornyn in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 20% and 100%?	Kalshi	1%
Will the margin of victory for John Cornyn in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 15% and 20%?	Kalshi	1%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, April 17, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Texas Republican Senate Runoff: Margin of Victory
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On May 26, 2026

If the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff falls between X and Y inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. - **For percentage points**: the vote percentage received by Ken Paxton minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ken Paxton if Ken Paxton wins, or

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff falls between 5% and 10%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 5% and 10%?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 26, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 20% and 100%?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 26, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 0% and 5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 26, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 31.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 15% and 20%?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 26, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.8% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 10% and 15%?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 26, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the margin of victory for John Cornyn in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 5% and 10%?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 26, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the margin of victory for John Cornyn in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 20% and 100%?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 26, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the margin of victory for John Cornyn in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 0% and 5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 26, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 27.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the margin of victory for John Cornyn in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 15% and 20%?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 26, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the margin of victory for John Cornyn in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 10% and 15%?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 26, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

10¢

Kalshi

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/8OQNGl" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Texas Republican Senate Runoff: Margin of Victory"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Kalshi

Texas Republican Senate Runoff: Margin of Victory

Texas Republican Senate Runoff: Margin of Victory

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 0% and 5%?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Texas Republican Senate Runoff: Margin of Victory

Markets (10)

Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 0% and 5%?

Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 0% and 5%?

Will the margin of victory for John Cornyn in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 0% and 5%?

Will the margin of victory for John Cornyn in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 0% and 5%?

Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 5% and 10%?

Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 5% and 10%?

Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 20% and 100%?

Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 20% and 100%?

Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 10% and 15%?

Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 10% and 15%?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Market Insights

Share

Embed Widget

Trade This Market

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 0% and 5%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Texas Republican Senate Runoff: Margin of Victory

Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 0% and 5%?

Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 0% and 5%?

Will the margin of victory for John Cornyn in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 0% and 5%?

Will the margin of victory for John Cornyn in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 0% and 5%?

Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 5% and 10%?

Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 5% and 10%?

Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 20% and 100%?

Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 20% and 100%?

Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 10% and 15%?

Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 10% and 15%?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Share

Embed Widget