Who will receive the second mandate to form Israel's next government?
PM $32.8K
1
21
Who will receive the second mandate to form Israel's next government?
PM $32.8K
1
21
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Benjamin Netanyahu at 45%.
Polymarket
- Benjamin Netanyahu45%
- No second mandate45%
- Avigdor Lieberman1.1%
- Naftali Bennett0.3%
- Yair Golan0.1%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $32.8K
Reported volume · provider units
21
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
Legislative elections were held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the second individual who is officially tasked by the President of Israel with forming a government following the 2026 parliamentary election. Extensions of the first individual's mandate will not count as a second mandate. If the first individual is tasked with forming a government again, including via a petition of 61 members of the Knesset, this will not count; only a mandate given to a different individual will count as the second mandate. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally tasked with forming a government by the President of Israel. Recommendations made to the President by parties or members of the Knesset, and the President's consultations, will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no second individual is tasked with forming a government by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No second mandate”. If the Knesset is dissolved or new elections are called before a second individual is tasked with forming a government, this market will resolve to “No second mandate”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-11T09:00:06.029Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This event is a set of Polymarket binary contracts tied to one question: who will receive the second mandate to form Israel's next government after the 2026 parliamentary election [1]. Under the stated rules, the market resolves to the second individual formally tasked with forming a government by the President of Israel. Extensions of the first individual's mandate do not count, and recommendations by parties or Knesset members do not count [1]. If no second individual is tasked by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "No second mandate" [1]. The same outcome applies if the Knesset is dissolved or new elections are called before a second individual is tasked [1].
The saved event lists an end time of 2028-01-01T04:59:00.000Z [1]. The individual market records show an endDate of 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z [1]. These two timestamps do not match, so readers should check the contract wording and the provider's listed close time before relying on either date. The December 31, 2027 deadline is a rule, not an announced event.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-11-11T09:00:06.029Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-11-11T11:20:07.196Z [1]. These are observation-time snapshots, not live or executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities.
The sample is partial. The saved event contains 21 markets, and 12 are included [1]. Included markets were chosen by Yes price, then volume, so the omitted nine cannot be assessed from this record. Each market is a separate contract, so the rankings should not be combined across contracts or with other platforms.
Among the included contracts, the "No second mandate" market shows Yes at 0.48 and No at 0.52 [1]. The Netanyahu contract shows Yes at 0.44 and No at 0.56 [1]. The Lieberman contract shows Yes at 0.0105 [1]. Bennett shows Yes at 0.002, Golan at 0.0015, and several others at 0.0005 [1]. These are the quoted snapshot values only. They do not show why prices are where they are, and they do not measure trading activity.
Each Yes and No pair within a binary contract is a separate price line. Differences between contracts reflect different questions, not an arbitrage opportunity.
What remains uncertain
The record does not show current prices, trading volume, liquidity, or the number of participants. It also does not show what has happened since the observation time, and it does not establish any future date beyond the stated rules. Because the provider's end-time fields differ, the close timing should be confirmed directly. Readers should treat these figures as a dated snapshot of quoted prices for the saved contracts only.
References
- Polymarket: Who will receive the second mandate to form Israel's next government?. Provider data observed 2026-11-11T09:00:06.029Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 11, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract asks who will be the second individual formally tasked by the President of Israel with forming a government after the 2026 parliamentary election. The contract is tied to the legislative election held on October 27, 2026, which was held to elect the 120 members of the 26th Knesset and determine the governing coalition that succeeds the 37th government led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu [3]. The contract's rules define a specific event. A first individual may be tasked with forming a government, and if that effort does not produce a government, the President may task a second individual. The contract resolves to that second individual only when that person is formally tasked. The rules draw several distinctions. Extensions of the first individual's mandate do not count as a second mandate. If the first individual is tasked again, including through a petition of 61 members of the Knesset, that also does not count. Only a mandate given to a different individual counts. Recommendations made to the President by parties or members of the Knesset, and the President's consultations, do not count toward resolution [1]. The primary resolution source is official information from the Government of Israel, although a consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. The contract also includes a deadline. If no second individual is tasked by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "No second mandate" [1]. A dissolution of the Knesset or the calling of new elections before a second individual is tasked also results in "No second mandate" [1]. The listed end time in the provider data is 2028-01-01T04:59:00.000Z [1]. That is a provider timestamp and a contract closing marker, not an announced date for any government event.
Historical Context
Israel held legislative elections on 27 October 2026 to elect the 120 members of the 26th Knesset [3]. The election was described as determining the governing coalition that succeeds the 37th government, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu [3]. A Wikipedia page for the thirty-eighth government describes it as the next cabinet of Israel following the 2026 election [2]. The supplied sources do not establish whether any mandate has been issued, so the contract should be read as a question about a future formal tasking rather than a report of one that has occurred.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a specific constitutional step in forming an Israeli government: the formal tasking of a second individual by the President after a first individual's effort. Its rules are narrow. Party recommendations, consultations, extensions of the first mandate, and re-tasking of the same person do not qualify [1]. Because of this, the contract's outcome depends on a formal presidential act rather than on public reporting of negotiations alone. The contract's wording gives the Government of Israel's official information priority, with credible reporting allowed as a secondary basis [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-11 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Does extending the first individual's mandate count as a second mandate?
No. The contract states that extensions of the first individual's mandate will not count as a second mandate [1].
Would a petition of 61 Knesset members that re-tasks the first individual count?
No. The rules say that if the first individual is tasked again, including via a petition of 61 members of the Knesset, this will not count [1].
Do party recommendations or presidential consultations count?
No. Recommendations to the President by parties or members of the Knesset, and the President's consultations, do not count toward resolution [1].
What happens if no second individual is tasked by the deadline?
The market resolves to "No second mandate" if no second individual is tasked with forming a government by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET [1].
What happens if the Knesset is dissolved or new elections are called first?
The market resolves to "No second mandate" if the Knesset is dissolved or new elections are called before a second individual is tasked with forming a government [1].
What sources determine resolution?
The primary resolution source is official information from the Government of Israel. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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