GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Next government of the United Kingdom?

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Next government of the United Kingdom?

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

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0.0%avg

max 0.0%

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19 markets tracked

Will Labour majority form the next government in the United Kingdom?

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Single-Platform Markets(19)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Labour majority form the next government in the United Kingdom?	Kalshi	14%
Will Reform UK minority + Conservative support form the next government in the United Kingdom?	Kalshi	10%
Will Reform UK majority form the next government in the United Kingdom?	Kalshi	9%
Will Reform UK minority form the next government in the United Kingdom?	Kalshi	9%
Will Labour, Liberal Democrat, and Green coalition form the next government in the United Kingdom?	Kalshi	6%
Will Labour minority + Liberal Democrat support form the next government in the United Kingdom?	Kalshi	6%
Will Labour and Liberal Democrat coalition form the next government in the United Kingdom?	Kalshi	6%
Will Labour minority + LD/Green/SNP/Plaid support form the next government in the United Kingdom?	Kalshi	5%
Will Labour minority + SNP support form the next government in the United Kingdom?	Kalshi	5%
Will Reform UK and Conservative coalition form the next government in the United Kingdom?	Kalshi	5%
Will Labour minority + Green support form the next government in the United Kingdom?	Kalshi	5%
Will Labour minority form the next government in the United Kingdom?	Kalshi	5%
Will Conservative majority form the next government in the United Kingdom?	Kalshi	5%
Will Conservative minority + Reform UK support form the next government in the United Kingdom?	Kalshi	4%
Will Conservative minority form the next government in the United Kingdom?	Kalshi	4%
Will Reform UK minority + DUP support form the next government in the United Kingdom?	Kalshi	3%
Will Reform UK, Conservative, and DUP coalition form the next government in the United Kingdom?	Kalshi	3%
Will Conservative minority + DUP support form the next government in the United Kingdom?	Kalshi	3%
Will Conservative and Liberal Democrat coalition form the next government in the United Kingdom?	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

14%

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$0.00

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About This Event

Before Jan 1, 2030 If X not holding a majority of seats in the House of Commons and with no other party in a confidence and supply arrangement with the ruling government exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. X party is considered part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position in the new government. This evaluation occurs at the first offic

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Next government of the United Kingdom?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Jan 1, 2030

If X not holding a majority of seats in the House of Commons and with no other party in a confidence and supply arrangement with the ruling government exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. X party is considered part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position in the new government. This evaluation occurs at the first offic

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Reform UK, with Reform UK not holding a majority of seats in the House of Commons and with no other party in a confidence and supply arrangement with the ruling government exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Reform UK minority form the next government in the United Kingdom?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Reform UK majority form the next government in the United Kingdom?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Reform UK minority + DUP support form the next government in the United Kingdom?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Reform UK, Conservative, and DUP coalition form the next government in the United Kingdom?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Reform UK and Conservative coalition form the next government in the United Kingdom?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Reform UK minority + Conservative support form the next government in the United Kingdom?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Labour minority + LD/Green/SNP/Plaid support form the next government in the United Kingdom?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.6% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Labour and Liberal Democrat coalition form the next government in the United Kingdom?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.3% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Labour minority + Liberal Democrat support form the next government in the United Kingdom?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Labour, Liberal Democrat, and Green coalition form the next government in the United Kingdom?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.8% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Labour minority + SNP support form the next government in the United Kingdom?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.8% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Labour minority + Green support form the next government in the United Kingdom?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.2% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Labour minority form the next government in the United Kingdom?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Labour majority form the next government in the United Kingdom?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Conservative minority + Reform UK support form the next government in the United Kingdom?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.6% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Conservative and Liberal Democrat coalition form the next government in the United Kingdom?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Conservative minority + DUP support form the next government in the United Kingdom?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Conservative minority form the next government in the United Kingdom?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.8% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Conservative majority form the next government in the United Kingdom?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Next government of the United Kingdom?

Volume$0.00

Markets19

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KALSHI

Will Labour majority form the next government in the United Kingdom?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 14.5¢No 85.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will Labour majority form the next government in the United Kingdom?

If the Labour Party, with the Labour Party holding a majority of seats in the House of Commons exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A party is considered part of government if one or more of

KALSHI

Will Reform UK minority + Conservative support form the next government in the United Kingdom?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 9.5¢No 90.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will Reform UK minority + Conservative support form the next government in the United Kingdom?

If Reform UK with the support of the Conservative Party exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A party is considered part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one

KALSHI

Will Reform UK majority form the next government in the United Kingdom?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 9.0¢No 91.0¢

KALSHIWorld

Will Reform UK majority form the next government in the United Kingdom?

If Reform UK, with Reform UK holding a majority of seats in the House of Commons exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A party is considered part of government if one or more of its represent

KALSHI

Will Reform UK minority form the next government in the United Kingdom?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 8.5¢No 91.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will Reform UK minority form the next government in the United Kingdom?

If Reform UK, with Reform UK not holding a majority of seats in the House of Commons and with no other party in a confidence and supply arrangement with the ruling government exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to

KALSHI

Will Labour, Liberal Democrat, and Green coalition form the next government in the United Kingdom?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 6.3¢No 93.8¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Labour, Liberal Democrat, and Green coalition form the next government in the United Kingdom?

If the Labour Party, the Liberal Democrats, and the Green Party exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A party is considered part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at le

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/Qx2Blq" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Next government of the United Kingdom?"></iframe>

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Will Labour majority form the next government in the United Kingdom?

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About This Event

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Events (1)

Next government of the United Kingdom?

Markets (19)

Will Labour majority form the next government in the United Kingdom?

Will Labour majority form the next government in the United Kingdom?

Will Reform UK minority + Conservative support form the next government in the United Kingdom?

Will Reform UK minority + Conservative support form the next government in the United Kingdom?

Will Reform UK majority form the next government in the United Kingdom?

Will Reform UK majority form the next government in the United Kingdom?

Will Reform UK minority form the next government in the United Kingdom?

Will Reform UK minority form the next government in the United Kingdom?

Will Labour, Liberal Democrat, and Green coalition form the next government in the United Kingdom?

Will Labour, Liberal Democrat, and Green coalition form the next government in the United Kingdom?

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Will Labour majority form the next government in the United Kingdom?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Next government of the United Kingdom?

Will Labour majority form the next government in the United Kingdom?

Will Labour majority form the next government in the United Kingdom?

Will Reform UK minority + Conservative support form the next government in the United Kingdom?

Will Reform UK minority + Conservative support form the next government in the United Kingdom?

Will Reform UK majority form the next government in the United Kingdom?

Will Reform UK majority form the next government in the United Kingdom?

Will Reform UK minority form the next government in the United Kingdom?

Will Reform UK minority form the next government in the United Kingdom?

Will Labour, Liberal Democrat, and Green coalition form the next government in the United Kingdom?

Will Labour, Liberal Democrat, and Green coalition form the next government in the United Kingdom?

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