Market snapshot: Oct 15, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsElections

Kentucky governor winner? (2027)

Name: Kentucky governor winner? (2027)
End: 2027-11-03T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$39.91K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

Kentucky governor winner? (2027)

Vol

$39.91K

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $2.32K

Kalshi

markets · $37.59K

Price Spread

3.0%avg

max 4.0%

Price gaps

of 2 cross-platform

Calculate

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Volume DistributionTotal: $39.91K

94%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Related contracts

The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the Republican party win the governorship in Kentucky"; listed deadline 2028-11-01T14:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will the Republicans win the Kentucky governor race in 2027?"; listed deadline 2027-11-03T03:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

Reviewed: Tue, 13 Oct 2026 15:19:55 GMT

Review notes

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 2 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Kentucky governor winner? (2027)". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2028-11-01T14:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Kentucky Governor Election Winner (2027)". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-11-03T03:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

Will the Republicans win the Kentucky governor race in 2027?

No data available

Cross-Platform Comparison(2)

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff
Will the Republicans win the Kentucky governor race in 2027? Related contracts	82%	80%	2%
Will the Democrats win the Kentucky governor race in 2027?DIFF Related contracts	17%	21%	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

82%

Top Probability

$39.91K

Volume

Markets

1.0%

Price Gap

About This Event

In 2027 If a representative X party is inaugurated as the governor of Kentucky pursuant to the 2027 election, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close early following the first person to be sworn in as governor pursuant to the 2027 gubernatorial election. This market will close early following the first person to be sworn in as governor pursuant to the 2027 gubernatorial election.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, October 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Kentucky governor winner? (2027)
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2027

If a representative X party is inaugurated as the governor of Kentucky pursuant to the 2027 election, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close early following the first person to be sworn in as governor pursuant to the 2027 gubernatorial election. This market will close early following the first person to be sworn in as governor pursuant to the 2027 gubernatorial election.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of Kentucky pursuant to the 2027 election, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close early following the first person to be sworn in as governor pursuant to the 2027 gubernatorial election"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $39.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $33.8K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.18)
* **Platform Split:** Polymarket (2 mkts) vs Kalshi (2 mkts)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Kentucky
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2028): Vol $11.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $147
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 4.0% spread between platforms.

### 2. Will the Republican party win the governorship in Kentucky
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2028): Vol $26.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 79.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 20.5% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 81.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 18.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 2.0% spread between platforms.

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Rules & Resolution

Differs

Saved matching review

Related contracts: 2 pairs

A saved event match does not establish identical settlement. Pair reviews appear with each price comparison.

Review notes

Saved notes may describe earlier contract terms. Use the pair status above and current provider rules.

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

KALSHIElections

Kentucky governor winner? (2027)

Volume$37.59K

Markets2

POLYMARKETPolitics

Kentucky Governor Election Winner (2027)

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2027 Kentucky gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with th

Volume$2.32K

Markets2

2 of 2

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Related contracts

Reviewed: Tue, 13 Oct 2026 15:19:55 GMT

Review notes

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will the Republican party win the governorship in Kentucky

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average80.5%

Polymarket+2.0 pp

81.5%

Kalshi

79.5%

Difference:2.0 pp

Polymarket higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 81.5¢No 18.5¢

KKalshi

Yes 79.5¢No 20.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Republican party win the governorship in Kentucky

If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as the governor of Kentucky pursuant to the 2027 election, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close early following the first person to be sworn in as governor pursuant to the 2027 gubernatorial election

Will the Republicans win the Kentucky governor race in 2027?

Price difference: 4.0 percentage points

Related contracts

The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Kentucky"; listed deadline 2028-11-01T14:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will the Democrats win the Kentucky governor race in 2027?"; listed deadline 2027-11-03T03:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

Reviewed: Tue, 13 Oct 2026 15:19:55 GMT

Review notes

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Kentucky

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average18.5%

Polymarket

16.5%

Kalshi+4.0 pp

20.5%

Difference:4.0 pp price difference

Kalshi higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 16.5¢No 83.5¢

KKalshi

Yes 20.5¢No 79.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Kentucky

If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of Kentucky pursuant to the 2027 election, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close early following the first person to be sworn in as governor pursuant to the 2027 gubernatorial election

Will the Democrats win the Kentucky governor race in 2027?

No related news found

Discussion

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Next Market Deadline

Calculating time remaining…

Nov 03, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

Saved price pairs

Largest saved gap: 4.0 percentage points.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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Kentucky governor winner? (2027)