GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Guerrero Governor Election Winner

Name: Guerrero Governor Election Winner
End: 2027-06-06T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$36.36K

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Markets

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Guerrero Governor Election Winner

Vol

$36.36K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $36.36K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $36.36K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

28 markets tracked

Will Esthela Damián Peralta win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(28)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Esthela Damián Peralta win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?	Poly	67%
Will Beatriz Mojica Morga win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?	Poly	28%
Will Mario Moreno Arcos win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?	Poly	2%
Will Marcial Rodríguez Saldaña win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?	Poly	1%
Will Manuel Añorve Baños win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?	Poly	1%
Will Erika Lorena Lührs win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?	Poly	1%
Will Pablo Amílcar Sandoval Ballesteros win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?	Poly	1%
Will Gabriela Bernal Reséndiz win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?	Poly	1%
Will Karen Castrejón Trujillo win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?	Poly	1%
Will Julián López Galeana win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?	Poly	1%
Will Yesenia Galarza Castro win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?	Poly	0%
Will Félix Salgado Macedonio win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?	Poly	0%
Will Rogelio Ortega Martínez win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?	Poly	0%
Will Alberto López Rosas win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?	Poly	0%
Will Iván Hernández Díaz win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?	Poly	0%
Will Javier Saldaña Almazán win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?	Poly	0%
Will Zeferino Gómez Valdovinos win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?	Poly	0%
Will Guadalupe Eguiluz win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?	Poly	0%
Will Gustavo Alarcón Herrera win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?	Poly	0%
Will Eloy Salmerón Díaz win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?	Poly	0%
Will Héctor Astudillo Flores win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?	Poly	0%
Will Evodio Velázquez Aguirre win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?	Poly	0%
Will Alejandro Bravo Abarca win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?	Poly	0%
Will Carlos Reyes Torres win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?	Poly	0%
Will Abelina López Rodríguez win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?	Poly	0%
Will Rubén Cayetano García win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?	Poly	0%
Will Genaro Vázquez Flores win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?	Poly	0%
Will Norma Otilia Hernández Martínez win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

67%

Top Probability

$36.36K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Guerrero on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Guerrero gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambig

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Guerrero Governor Election Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 6, 2027 (275 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Guerrero on June 6, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Guerrero gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambig

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Guerrero on June 6, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Guerrero gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.

If the results are not known definitively by De"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $36.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $443.5K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.08)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Beatriz Mojica Morga win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $12.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 27.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.2% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Esthela Damián Peralta win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $8.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 66.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 33.3% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Abelina López Rodríguez win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $366
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Félix Salgado Macedonio win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $493
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Pablo Amílcar Sandoval Ballesteros win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $4.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Rogelio Ortega Martínez win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $499
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Alberto López Rosas win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $497
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Iván Hernández Díaz win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $479
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Marcial Rodríguez Saldaña win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $450
  DATA: [Yes: 1.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Rubén Cayetano García win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $354
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Javier Saldaña Almazán win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $468
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Genaro Vázquez Flores win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $405
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Zeferino Gómez Valdovinos win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $476
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Norma Otilia Hernández Martínez win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $352
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Guadalupe Eguiluz win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $461
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Karen Castrejón Trujillo win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $490
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Manuel Añorve Baños win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $555
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.2% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Alejandro Bravo Abarca win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $460
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Gustavo Alarcón Herrera win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $489
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will Eloy Salmerón Díaz win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $511
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Yesenia Galarza Castro win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $418
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will Gabriela Bernal Reséndiz win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $455
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will Mario Moreno Arcos win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $539
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 24. Will Héctor Astudillo Flores win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $472
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 25. Will Julián López Galeana win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $499
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 26. Will Erika Lorena Lührs win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $438
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.2% (0.0%)]

### 27. Will Evodio Velázquez Aguirre win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $483
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 28. Will Carlos Reyes Torres win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $450
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics