Solana Up or Down - October 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET
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Solana Up or Down - October 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the SOL/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair SOL/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single binary market from Polymarket on the Solana price over a five-minute window. The source states that the market "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"." [1] The resolution source is the SOL/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules say the market is "about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair SOL/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets." [1]
The listed end time is 2026-10-20T05:45:00.000Z, which corresponds to the 1:45AM ET close in the title [1]. That is the scheduled close, not a record of how the market resolved. The supplied evidence does not show a resolution.
Reading the snapshot
The snapshot was observed at 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z and retrieved at 2026-10-19T06:09:02.447Z [1]. It shows the market as active, with a quoted price of 0.505 for "Up" and 0.495 for "Down" [1]. These are prices from one observation, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. Because the rules compare a time-weighted average against the starting price, the two outcomes sit close to each other in this snapshot, but the evidence does not explain why the prices are where they are.
The coverage record lists one market in one event, with no partial sample flag [1]. Volume is not included in the supplied evidence, so this snapshot says nothing about liquidity or how many traders are involved.
Other Solana contracts with different time windows or different resolution sources are not part of this comparison. Their rules and close times may differ, so their prices should not be read against this one.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show the Solana price path during the window, the outcome after the listed close, or any change in the market after the 06:00 UTC observation. Readers should check the provider page for a current status before relying on any price, since this snapshot records only the moment it was observed.
References
- Polymarket: Solana Up or Down - October 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This Polymarket contract, titled "Solana Up or Down - October 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET" in the saved record, asks whether Solana's price in U.S. dollars will end a short window at or above where it started. The window runs from 1:40AM to 1:45AM ET on October 20. [1] The contract resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down." [1] The resolution source is Chainlink's SOL/USD TWAP data stream. [1] The rules say the market is about that Chainlink data stream only, not other sources or spot markets. [1] The saved record lists the market as active, with a listed end time of 05:45 UTC on October 20, 2026. [1] That end time is part of the contract rules. It is not an announced event or a sign that the market has settled, and the record does not show a resolution outcome.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a narrow question about the direction of the SOL/USD price over one five-minute window, as defined by a specific Chainlink data stream. [1] Because the rule compares a time-weighted average over the window with the price at the window's start, the result depends on the averaged price path rather than only the final value. [1] Anyone reading the contract needs to know that the named Chainlink stream, not other exchanges or spot markets, determines the outcome. [1]
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does an "Up" result mean for this contract?
An "Up" result occurs when the time-weighted average price of SOL/USD from the Chainlink stream over the window is greater than or equal to the price at the start of the window. [1]
Which price source decides the outcome?
The outcome is decided by Chainlink's SOL/USD TWAP data stream. The rules state that other sources and spot markets are not used. [1]
Does the listed end time mean the market has already settled?
No. The saved record lists an end time of 05:45 UTC on October 20, 2026 and an active status at the time it was observed. [1] The end time is a rule in the contract, and the record does not show a settled result.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.