GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?

Name: How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
End: 2027-01-10T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$82.14K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?

Vol

$82.14K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $82.14K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $82.14K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

8 markets tracked

Will 1250 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will 1250 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?	Poly	89%
Will 1200 to 1249 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?	Poly	6%
Will 1150 to 1199 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?	Poly	4%
Will 1100 to 1149 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?	Poly	3%
Will fewer than 950 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?	Poly	1%
Will 1050 to 1099 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?	Poly	1%
Will 950 to 999 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?	Poly	0%
Will 1000 to 1049 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

89%

Top Probability

$82.14K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series). Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count. As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here:

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 10, 2027 (127 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).

Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.

As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).

"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $82.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $14.6K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 5.62)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will fewer than 950 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 10, 2027): Vol $23.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will 950 to 999 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 10, 2027): Vol $3.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will 1000 to 1049 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 10, 2027): Vol $3.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will 1050 to 1099 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 10, 2027): Vol $9.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will 1100 to 1149 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 10, 2027): Vol $3.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.1% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will 1150 to 1199 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 10, 2027): Vol $4.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.6% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will 1200 to 1249 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 10, 2027): Vol $15.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will 1250 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 10, 2027): Vol $18.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 89.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 11.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETClimate