Crypto Leader - 15 minutes
K 0 contracts
1
5
Crypto Leader - 15 minutes
K 0 contracts
1
5
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 23, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is ETH at 24.5%.
Kalshi
- ETH24.5%
- BTC24%
- XRP19.5%
- HYPE16%
- SOL13.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 0 contracts
Reported volume · provider units
5
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 23, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
Oct 22 - 11:00PM EDT to 11:15PM EDT If X has the highest return out of BTC, Bitcoin, ETH, Ethereum, SOL, Solana, XRP, Ripple, and HYPE, Hyperliquid, from Oct 22 - 11:00PM EDT to 11:15PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes. The return for each cryptocurrency in the specified set is calculated independently over the given time period using the formula: Return =, Ending Price − Starting Price, / Starting Price × 100. The Starting Price and Ending Price are defined as the time-weighted average of the Spot Rate values published by CFBenchmarks during the 60-second intervals immediately preceding the start and end of the time period, respectively. Final returns are calculated on an identical basis for every cryptocurrency in the set and rounded to three decimal places, as a percentage. If two or more cryptocurrencies report an identical return, rounded to three decimal places, such that they are tied for the highest position, each tied cryptocurrency's Contract will resolve to "Yes" with a value equal to $1 divided by the number of cryptocurrencies tied for the highest position, rounded down to the nearest cent, and each remaining, non-tied, cryptocurrency's Contract will resolve to "No."
Snapshot observed 2026-10-23T00:00:06.081Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This Kalshi event asks which of nine listed cryptocurrencies will have the highest return from 8:00 PM to 8:15 PM EDT on October 22, 2026 [1]. The return for each asset is calculated as ending price minus starting price, divided by starting price, times 100. Prices are time-weighted averages of CFBenchmarks Spot Rate values in the 60 seconds before each boundary [1]. If two or more assets tie at the highest return, rounded to three decimal places, the "Yes" value is split equally among them, rounded down to the nearest cent [1].
The saved market set includes only five of the nine assets: HYPE, BTC, SOL, XRP, and ETH [1]. The listed close field is 2026-10-30T00:15:00Z, but the source excerpt says the listed end time is "not supplied" [1]. The contract window itself is the 15-minute period on October 22 (EDT), so the later date field should not be read as the measurement period.
Reading the snapshot
The market data was observed at 2026-10-23T00:00:06Z and retrieved at 2026-10-23T01:52:45Z [1]. That observation falls at the start of the measurement window, so these prices describe trading at that moment and do not show the final result. The provider status was active when retrieved [1].
The Yes prices in the saved sample are HYPE 0.565, XRP 0.115, BTC 0.13, SOL 0.12, and ETH 0.08 [1]. The HYPE price is the highest in this sample. The five Yes prices sum to 1.01, so these are quoted snapshots rather than a consistent probability set. They are not executable quotes, and the snapshot does not show trade depth. The volume field is also not supplied in the saved data, so it cannot indicate liquidity.
Because all five markets come from one provider event, the comparison is internal to that event. The price gap between contracts does not, by itself, indicate an arbitrage opportunity.
What remains uncertain
The saved sample is complete for the included markets, but the source warns that it "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. The four omitted assets are not in the data, so no inference should be drawn about their prices.
The final result, the closing time shown by the listing, and any resolution are not in the evidence. The snapshot shows no information about why prices stood where they did, and it provides no trader count or historical accuracy measure.
References
- Kalshi: Crypto Leader - 15 minutes. Provider data observed 2026-10-23T00:00:06.081Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 23, 2026 UTCOverview
Crypto Leader - 15 minutes is a Kalshi contract that asks which cryptocurrency in a fixed set has the highest percentage return over one 15-minute window. The event covers the period from 8:00 PM to 8:15 PM EDT on October 22. The set includes Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), XRP and Hyperliquid (HYPE). Cryptocurrency is a type of digital asset that uses distributed ledger, or blockchain, technology to enable a secure transaction [2]. The contract does not ask which asset is most valuable or which one is expected to rise over a longer period. It compares short-term performance within one fixed window. The contract rules define each asset's return as the ending price minus the starting price, divided by the starting price, multiplied by 100 [1]. Both prices are time-weighted averages of CFBenchmarks Spot Rate values published during the 60 seconds before the start and before the end of the window [1]. Returns are calculated on the same basis for every asset in the set and rounded to three decimal places [1]. A contract for each asset resolves to Yes if that asset has the highest return and to No otherwise [1]. If two or more assets tie for the highest return after rounding, each tied contract resolves to Yes with a value equal to $1 divided by the number of tied assets, rounded down to the nearest cent. Every other contract resolves to No [1]. A tie therefore does not produce a single winner in the usual sense, and tied Yes holders receive a fraction of the full payout. The saved market records show five contracts, one for each asset in the set, all with status active at the observation time. Each contract lists an end date of October 30, 2026 at 00:15 UTC. The rules describe the measurement window, not that end date, so the date should be read as a contract record rather than the time the outcome was determined.
Why It Matters
The contract measures relative short-term performance. Because the return is calculated for each asset over the same 15-minute window, the question is which asset moved most in percentage terms between the two price reference points [1]. A small absolute price change in a low-priced asset can produce a larger percentage return than a larger absolute change in a higher-priced asset, so the formula matters as much as the direction of the market. The use of CFBenchmarks Spot Rate averages, rather than a single trade price, is meant to reduce the effect of one moment's price on the result [1]. The observed prices at the snapshot time were Yes prices of 0.565 for HYPE, 0.13 for BTC, 0.12 for SOL, 0.115 for XRP and 0.08 for ETH [1]. These are observed prices from a saved record, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The Yes prices across the five contracts sum to slightly more than one, which is common in multi-outcome markets and does not by itself indicate a pricing error. Trading volume is not shown in the saved records and should not be read as liquidity or as a count of participants.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-23 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
How is the winner determined in this contract?
The asset with the highest return over the window is the winner. Each return is the change from a starting price to an ending price, expressed as a percentage and rounded to three decimal places [1].
What prices are used for the start and end of the window?
The starting and ending prices are time-weighted averages of CFBenchmarks Spot Rate values published during the 60-second intervals immediately before the start and end of the period [1].
What happens if two assets have the same return?
If two or more assets tie for the highest return after rounding, each tied contract resolves to Yes with a value equal to $1 divided by the number of tied assets, rounded down to the nearest cent. The remaining contracts resolve to No [1].
Which cryptocurrencies are included?
The contract covers Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP and Hyperliquid, referred to in the rules as BTC, Bitcoin, ETH, Ethereum, SOL, Solana, XRP, Ripple, HYPE and Hyperliquid [1].
Does a price shown for a contract mean the chance that the asset will win?
No. The saved prices are snapshots of market prices at the observation time and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The contract rules define how outcomes are determined, but they do not turn a price into a stated likelihood [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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