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GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIScience and Technology

AI capability growth before July?

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AI capability growth before July?

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

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max 0.0%

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8 markets tracked

Will any AI model have a score of at least 1525 before Jul 1, 2026

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Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will any AI model have a score of at least 1525 before Jul 1, 2026	Kalshi	29%
Will any AI model have a score of at least 1550 before Jul 1, 2026	Kalshi	15%
Will any AI model have a score of at least 1575 before Jul 1, 2026	Kalshi	8%
Will any AI model have a score of at least 1600 before Jul 1, 2026	Kalshi	7%
Will any AI model have a score of at least 1625 before Jul 1, 2026	Kalshi	5%
Will any AI model have a score of at least 1700 before Jul 1, 2026	Kalshi	3%
Will any AI model have a score of at least 1650 before Jul 1, 2026	Kalshi	3%
Will any AI model have a score of at least 1675 before Jul 1, 2026	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

29%

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$0.00

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About This Event

Before July 2026 If an AI model has a score of at least X before Jul 1, 2026 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close and expire the following 10:00 AM ET. If this event occurs, the market will close and expire the following 10:00 AM ET.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** AI capability growth before July?
**Category:** Science and Technology | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before July 2026

If an AI model has a score of at least X before Jul 1, 2026 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close and expire the following 10:00 AM ET. If this event occurs, the market will close and expire the following 10:00 AM ET.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If an AI model has a score of at least 1700 before Jul 1, 2026 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close and expire the following 10:00 AM ET."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will any AI model have a score of at least 1700 before Jul 1, 2026
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will any AI model have a score of at least 1675 before Jul 1, 2026
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will any AI model have a score of at least 1650 before Jul 1, 2026
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will any AI model have a score of at least 1625 before Jul 1, 2026
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will any AI model have a score of at least 1600 before Jul 1, 2026
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will any AI model have a score of at least 1575 before Jul 1, 2026
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will any AI model have a score of at least 1550 before Jul 1, 2026
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will any AI model have a score of at least 1525 before Jul 1, 2026
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 29.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIScience and Technology

AI capability growth before July?

Volume$0.00

Markets8

8 of 8

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KALSHI

Will any AI model have a score of at least 1525 before Jul 1, 2026

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 29.0¢No 71.0¢

KALSHISports

Will any AI model have a score of at least 1525 before Jul 1, 2026

If an AI model has a score of at least 1525 before Jul 1, 2026 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close and expire the following 10:00 AM ET.

KALSHI

Will any AI model have a score of at least 1550 before Jul 1, 2026

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 14.5¢No 85.5¢

KALSHISports

Will any AI model have a score of at least 1550 before Jul 1, 2026

If an AI model has a score of at least 1550 before Jul 1, 2026 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close and expire the following 10:00 AM ET.

KALSHI

Will any AI model have a score of at least 1575 before Jul 1, 2026

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 7.5¢No 92.5¢

KALSHISports

Will any AI model have a score of at least 1575 before Jul 1, 2026

If an AI model has a score of at least 1575 before Jul 1, 2026 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close and expire the following 10:00 AM ET.

KALSHI

Will any AI model have a score of at least 1600 before Jul 1, 2026

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 6.5¢No 93.5¢

KALSHISports

Will any AI model have a score of at least 1600 before Jul 1, 2026

If an AI model has a score of at least 1600 before Jul 1, 2026 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close and expire the following 10:00 AM ET.

KALSHI

Will any AI model have a score of at least 1625 before Jul 1, 2026

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 5.0¢No 95.0¢

KALSHISports

Will any AI model have a score of at least 1625 before Jul 1, 2026

If an AI model has a score of at least 1625 before Jul 1, 2026 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close and expire the following 10:00 AM ET.

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Will any AI model have a score of at least 1525 before Jul 1, 2026

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Educational Context

Events (1)

AI capability growth before July?

Markets (8)

Will any AI model have a score of at least 1525 before Jul 1, 2026

Will any AI model have a score of at least 1525 before Jul 1, 2026

Will any AI model have a score of at least 1550 before Jul 1, 2026

Will any AI model have a score of at least 1550 before Jul 1, 2026

Will any AI model have a score of at least 1575 before Jul 1, 2026

Will any AI model have a score of at least 1575 before Jul 1, 2026

Will any AI model have a score of at least 1600 before Jul 1, 2026

Will any AI model have a score of at least 1600 before Jul 1, 2026

Will any AI model have a score of at least 1625 before Jul 1, 2026

Will any AI model have a score of at least 1625 before Jul 1, 2026

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will any AI model have a score of at least 1525 before Jul 1, 2026

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

AI capability growth before July?

Will any AI model have a score of at least 1525 before Jul 1, 2026

Will any AI model have a score of at least 1525 before Jul 1, 2026

Will any AI model have a score of at least 1550 before Jul 1, 2026

Will any AI model have a score of at least 1550 before Jul 1, 2026

Will any AI model have a score of at least 1575 before Jul 1, 2026

Will any AI model have a score of at least 1575 before Jul 1, 2026

Will any AI model have a score of at least 1600 before Jul 1, 2026

Will any AI model have a score of at least 1600 before Jul 1, 2026

Will any AI model have a score of at least 1625 before Jul 1, 2026

Will any AI model have a score of at least 1625 before Jul 1, 2026

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