Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIScience and Technology

Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030?

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Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030?

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33 markets tracked

Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (OpenAI)

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Single-Platform Markets(33)

Market	Platform	Price
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (OpenAI)	Kalshi	86%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Google)	Kalshi	78%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Meta)	Kalshi	62%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Xiaomi)	Kalshi	61%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Baidu)	Kalshi	61%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Tencent)	Kalshi	55%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Z AI)	Kalshi	45%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Moonshot)	Kalshi	45%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (MiniMax)	Kalshi	45%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (DeepSeek)	Kalshi	45%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (xAI)	Kalshi	41%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Alibaba)	Kalshi	31%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (ByteDance)	Kalshi	26%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Microsoft)	Kalshi	16%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Amazon)	Kalshi	16%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Huawei)	Kalshi	11%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Mistral)	Kalshi	9%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Upstage)	Kalshi	6%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Thinking Machines)	Kalshi	6%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (StepFun)	Kalshi	6%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Safe Superintelligence)	Kalshi	6%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Reflection AI)	Kalshi	6%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Prime Intellect)	Kalshi	6%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (NVIDIA)	Kalshi	6%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (LongCat)	Kalshi	6%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (LG AI Research)	Kalshi	6%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Inception)	Kalshi	6%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (InclusionAI)	Kalshi	6%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Institute of Foundation Models)	Kalshi	6%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Essential AI)	Kalshi	6%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Cohere)	Kalshi	6%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (China Mobile)	Kalshi	6%
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Arcee AI)	Kalshi	6%

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About This Event

Before Jan 1, 2030 If X has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Leading at any point after listing and before the deadline counts; multiple companies can resolve Yes. Artificial Analysis is used first, then Epoch AI and LiveBench under the fallback and tiebreaking rules. Preliminary or provisional scores do not count. This market will close and expire early if the organization has the highest-ranked AI model during the specifi

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030?
**Category:** Science and Technology | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Jan 1, 2030

If X has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Leading at any point after listing and before the deadline counts; multiple companies can resolve Yes. Artificial Analysis is used first, then Epoch AI and LiveBench under the fallback and tiebreaking rules. Preliminary or provisional scores do not count. This market will close and expire early if the organization has the highest-ranked AI model during the specifi

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Z AI has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Leading at any point after listing and before the deadline counts; multiple companies can resolve Yes. Artificial Analysis is used first, then Epoch AI and LiveBench "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Z AI)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $5
  DATA: [Yes: 45.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Xiaomi)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 60.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 39.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (xAI)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 40.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Upstage)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Thinking Machines)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Tencent)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 55.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 44.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (StepFun)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Safe Superintelligence)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Reflection AI)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Prime Intellect)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (OpenAI)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 85.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 14.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (NVIDIA)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Mistral)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Microsoft)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Moonshot)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 45.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (MiniMax)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 45.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.5% (0.0%)]

### 17. Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Meta)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 61.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 38.5% (0.0%)]

### 18. Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (LongCat)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 19. Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (LG AI Research)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 20. Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Inception)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 21. Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (InclusionAI)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 22. Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Institute of Foundation Models)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 23. Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Huawei)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 24. Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Google)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 78.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 21.5% (0.0%)]

### 25. Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Essential AI)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 26. Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (DeepSeek)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 45.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.5% (0.0%)]

### 27. Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Cohere)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 28. Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (China Mobile)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 29. Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (ByteDance)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 25.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.5% (0.0%)]

### 30. Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Baidu)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 60.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 39.5% (0.0%)]

### 31. Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Arcee AI)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 32. Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Amazon)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 33. Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Alibaba)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 30.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIScience and Technology

Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030?

Volume$5.00

Markets33

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KALSHI

Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (OpenAI)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 85.5¢No 14.5¢

KALSHITech

Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (OpenAI)

If OpenAI has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Leading at any point after listing and before the deadline counts; multiple companies can resolve Yes. Artificial Analysis is used first, then Epoch AI and LiveBenc

KALSHI

Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Google)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 78.5¢No 21.5¢

KALSHITech

Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Google)

If Google has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Leading at any point after listing and before the deadline counts; multiple companies can resolve Yes. Artificial Analysis is used first, then Epoch AI and LiveBenc

KALSHI

Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Meta)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 61.5¢No 38.5¢

KALSHITech

Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Meta)

If Meta has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Leading at any point after listing and before the deadline counts; multiple companies can resolve Yes. Artificial Analysis is used first, then Epoch AI and LiveBench

KALSHI

Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Xiaomi)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 60.5¢No 39.5¢

KALSHITech

Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Xiaomi)

If Xiaomi has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Leading at any point after listing and before the deadline counts; multiple companies can resolve Yes. Artificial Analysis is used first, then Epoch AI and LiveBenc

KALSHI

Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Baidu)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 60.5¢No 39.5¢

KALSHITech

Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Baidu)

If Baidu has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Leading at any point after listing and before the deadline counts; multiple companies can resolve Yes. Artificial Analysis is used first, then Epoch AI and LiveBench

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Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030?

Markets (33)

Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (OpenAI)

Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (OpenAI)

Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Google)

Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Google)

Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Meta)

Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Meta)

Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Xiaomi)

Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Xiaomi)

Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Baidu)

Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Baidu)

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Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (OpenAI)

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Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030?

Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (OpenAI)

Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (OpenAI)

Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Google)

Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Google)

Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Meta)

Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Meta)

Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Xiaomi)

Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Xiaomi)

Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? (Baidu)

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