
Liga MX Apertura Champion
PM $186.8K · K 1.52M contracts
5
83
Liga MX Apertura Champion

PM $186.8K · K 1.52M contracts
5
83
Polymarket vs Kalshi
Snapshot from
As of Nov 8, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC, Cruz Azul is priced at 24% on Polymarket and 26% on Kalshi.
| Outcome (Yes price) | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cruz AzulSame question, fine print differs | 24% | 26% | 2.0 pts |
| GuadalajaraSame question, fine print differs | 23.5% | 23.5% | 0.0 pts |
| AméricaSame question, fine print differs | 19.5% | 17.5% | 2.0 pts |
| TolucaSame question, fine print differs | 12.8% | 12.5% | 0.4 pts |
| Santos LagunaSame question, fine print differs | 7.6% | 5.5% | 2.1 pts |
| AtlasSame question, fine print differs | 4.3% | 4.5% | 0.2 pts |
| MonterreySame question, fine print differs | 2.4% | 2.5% | 0.1 pts |
| PachucaSame question, fine print differs | 1.8% | 2.5% | 0.7 pts |
Yes prices for outcomes an automated review found to ask the same question on both platforms. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $186.8K · K 1.52M contracts
Reported volume · provider units
83
Saved contracts
14
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 8, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
About This Event
2026-27 Apertura If X is the 2026-27 Liga MX Apertura champion, then the market resolves to Yes. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. This market will close and expire after a title holder is declared.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-01T09:00:05.893Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The supplied source is a Kalshi event titled "Liga MX Apertura Champion" for the 2026-27 Apertura [1]. Each team-specific market asks whether that team wins. The event excerpt states: "If X is the 2026-27 Liga MX Apertura champion, then the market resolves to Yes." It also says the market "will close and expire after a title holder is declared" [1]. Each market is a separate Yes or No contract, so a team's Yes price applies only to that team's contract.
The source lists the provider status as active but says "Listed end time: not supplied" [1]. The market records carry an end date of 2027-01-16T03:00:00.000Z. That value is a provider field in the saved data, not an announced date for the championship decision, and the evidence does not explain it further. Readers should treat the close time as unconfirmed.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-11-01T09:00:05.893Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-11-01T10:08:30.844Z [1]. These are the times of the saved record, not live prices at the moment you read this.
In this sample, the highest Yes prices are Guadalajara at 0.275, America at 0.245, Toluca at 0.14, and Cruz Azul at 0.125 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The evidence does not show why any price is where it is, and this summary does not infer a cause.
The sample is partial. The saved event has 18 markets, and 12 are included [1]. The selection rule ranks markets by Yes price, highest first, and includes up to 12 per event. Teams not included, such as Pumas UNAM or Tigres at 0.01 Yes, are not a complete ranking of the field, and their absence does not show their prices are lower than those shown. Do not compare these figures with markets from other events or other platforms, since the evidence does not support combining rankings or averaging unlike outcomes.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not include a confirmed end time, a resolution date, or any news about the season. It does not report trader counts or liquidity, so the prices cannot be read as a measure of market depth. Differences between contracts or platforms should not be treated as an arbitrage opportunity without current, executable quotes and matching contract terms, which are not supplied here.
References
- Kalshi: Liga MX Apertura Champion. Provider data observed 2026-11-01T09:00:05.893Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 1, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract is a Kalshi event titled "Liga MX Apertura Champion" covering the 2026-27 Apertura. Its rule is that if a specified team is the 2026-27 Liga MX Apertura champion, the market resolves to Yes [1]. The event is listed in the Sports category and its provider status was active at the observation time [1]. Kalshi states that it is not affiliated, associated, authorized, or endorsed by the governing league, and that trademarks belong to their respective owners [1]. The contract closes and expires after a title holder is declared, and the provider did not supply a listed end time [1]. The saved market records carry an end date of 16 January 2027 at 03:00 UTC [1]. That date is a field in the contract data. It is not an announced date for the final or for the crowning of a champion. Each market in the saved sample asks whether one specific team will win. In the observed snapshot, Guadalajara was priced at 0.275 for Yes, America at 0.245, Toluca at 0.14, and Cruz Azul at 0.125 [1]. These are provider prices at one moment. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and a higher price on one team's contract does not mean it is more likely than another's in any verified sense. The sample includes 12 of the 18 team markets in the saved event [1]. The six omitted markets are not shown, so this sample should not be read as the full field of possible champions.
Historical Context
The 2026-27 season is described as the 80th professional season of the top-flight football league in Mexico, and it is divided into two championships, the Apertura 2026 and the Clausura 2027, each in an identical format and each contested by the same 18 teams [2]. The Apertura is therefore the first of the two championships within that season. As an earlier example of the same structure, the 2019-20 season was the 73rd professional season and was divided into the Torneo Apertura and the Torneo Clausura, each contested by nineteen teams. That Apertura began on 19 July 2019 [3]. This earlier season is background only and does not describe the current 2026-27 competition.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single outcome: whether a named team wins the 2026-27 Liga MX Apertura championship [1]. Its resolution depends on a title holder being declared, which is the event the market closes on [1]. Because the Apertura is one of two championships in the 2026-27 season, a Yes result on this contract concerns only the Apertura and not the Clausura [2]. The price on each team's contract reflects the market's trading at a given time and is not a forecast with a verified accuracy record. Traders on the platform can move prices, and the saved data does not identify trader counts or the cause of any price change. Readers should treat the figures as observations of a market, not as proof of which team will win.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-01 at 12:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What event decides whether a team market resolves to Yes?
A market resolves to Yes if the named team is the 2026-27 Liga MX Apertura champion [1]. The contract closes and expires after a title holder is declared [1].
Does this contract cover the whole 2026-27 Liga MX season?
No. The 2026-27 season is divided into the Apertura 2026 and the Clausura 2027, each with the same 18 teams [2]. This contract concerns the Apertura championship [1].
Are the prices shown on the contracts the same as probabilities?
The saved prices are snapshots from a provider at one observation time and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities [1].
Why does the saved sample not include every team?
The saved event lists 18 markets, and only 12 are included in the sample under the selection rule for that event [1]. The sample does not show the full field, so the omitted markets should not be assumed to share any particular price.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

Liga MX Apertura Golden Boot
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Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.
Saved prices; check contract rules.

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Price gaps of 2 pp+
3
Same-question pairs
14
Largest saved gap: 2.1 percentage points.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
