Which Players Will Leave Their Team in 2026?
PM $4.9K
1
20
Which Players Will Leave Their Team in 2026?
PM $4.9K
1
20
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 22, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Sato at 93%.
Polymarket
- Sato93%
- kiNgg73.5%
- something70.5%
- Demon167%
- Jawgemo66.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $4.9K
Reported volume · provider units
20
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 22, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player departs the listed team's active roster on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". For the purpose of this market, the listed player is considered to have "left" if they are officially removed from the listed team's active roster — including a transfer to another team, release, benching to inactive/reserve, loan to another team, retirement, or any other departure from the active lineup — as reflected on the team's Liquipedia page (https://liquipedia.net/valorant). The player being a stand-in for another team while still rostered does not by itself count. The change must occur on or before the deadline and be reflected in the resolution source. Once the departure appears in the resolution source, it must remain in effect for at least 48 continuous hours to be valid. This 48-hour period may finish after the deadline, so long as the departure itself occurred on or before the deadline. If the change is reverted before 48 hours have elapsed, it will not count toward resolution. A name change or alias referring to the same player on the same team does not count as leaving. Temporary absence for a single match (with the player remaining on the roster) does not count. If the listed team disbands, or the listed player and the team part ways because the roster is dissolved, this will count as the player leaving and resolve "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be Liquipedia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The event asks which players will leave their team in 2026. Under the listed rules, a market resolves "Yes" if the named player departs the listed team's active roster on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and "No" otherwise [1]. The rules count a range of departures, including a transfer, release, benching to inactive or reserve, loan, or retirement, as reflected on the team's Liquipedia page [1]. A stand-in role while still rostered does not count, and a single-match absence does not count [1].
The wording is not identical across all markets. Most contracts name a specific player and team, but one asks whether "something" will leave Paper Rex [1]. That contract is a different question from the named-player contracts, so its price should not be compared directly with them. The rules also require a departure to remain in effect for at least 48 continuous hours to be valid, and that period may finish after the deadline [1].
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-16T03:00:06Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-16T05:52:04Z [1]. These are snapshot values, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and they may have changed since retrieval.
The sample is partial. The event has 20 markets, and 12 are included, ordered by Yes price from highest to lowest [1]. The omitted eight are not known to be lower-priced, so the sample should not be treated as the full field. Among the included contracts, the highest Yes price is for "Will valyn leave G2 in 2026?" at 0.8945, and the lowest is for "Will trent leave G2 in 2026?" at 0.2575 [1]. Skuba's contract at NRG is priced at 0.51 Yes and 0.49 No, close to an even split in this snapshot [1].
Each contract's Yes and No prices sum to one within that contract. Different players' prices should not be averaged or combined into a single estimate, and a price gap between contracts does not by itself indicate an opportunity. The provided evidence does not explain why any price is where it is, and it does not show how many traders hold each position. Volume is not evidence of liquidity.
What remains uncertain
The listed end time is 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z, which corresponds to the 11:59 PM ET deadline on December 31, 2026 [1]. The evidence does not show whether any departure has occurred, and it does not establish how resolution will be applied to a specific case. The primary resolution source is Liquipedia, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. The evidence contains no news coverage of these players or teams.
References
- Polymarket: Which Players Will Leave Their Team in 2026?. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 16, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia topic covers a Polymarket event titled "Which Players Will Leave Their Team in 2026?" in the Sports category. The event is built around a single question: will a listed player leave their current team's active roster on or before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET? The contract rules state that the market resolves Yes if that happens and No otherwise [1]. The listed end time for the event is January 1, 2027 at 04:59 UTC, which matches that ET deadline [1]. The rules define leaving broadly. A player counts as having left if they are officially removed from the listed team's active roster. That includes a transfer to another team, a release, a move to inactive or reserve status, a loan to another team, retirement, or any other departure from the active lineup, as reflected on the team's Liquipedia page [1]. If a team disbands, or the player and team part ways because the roster is dissolved, that also counts as leaving and resolves Yes [1]. Several situations do not count. A player serving as a stand-in for another team while still rostered does not count by itself. A name change or alias referring to the same player on the same team does not count. A temporary absence for a single match, with the player remaining on the roster, does not count [1]. The change must happen on or before the deadline and must be reflected in the resolution source. Once a departure appears there, it must remain in effect for at least 48 continuous hours to be valid. That 48-hour window may end after the deadline, as long as the departure itself occurred by the deadline. If the change is reverted before 48 hours pass, it does not count [1]. The primary resolution source is Liquipedia. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. The market sample shown in this article is a partial sample. It includes 12 of the 20 markets saved for this provider event, ordered by Yes price from highest to lowest, then by volume [1]. The omitted markets are not shown here, so this sample should not be read as the full field of players in the event, and the ordering reflects only the included markets. The prices are snapshots from the provider and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether a specific player is removed from a team's active roster before the end of 2026. Because the rules count transfers, releases, benchings to inactive or reserve status, loans, retirements, and team dissolutions, the question is broader than a formal transfer announcement [1]. The resolution depends on the team's Liquipedia page as the primary source, with credible reporting as a secondary basis [1]. Each market in the event is a separate question about one player, so the Yes and No prices in one market do not describe the others.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-16 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Does a single-match absence count as leaving a team?
No. A temporary absence for a single match does not count if the player remains on the roster [1].
Does a stand-in appearance for another team count?
Not by itself. The player being a stand-in for another team while still rostered does not count as leaving [1].
What happens if a departure is reversed quickly?
The departure must remain in effect for at least 48 continuous hours to be valid. If the change is reverted before 48 hours have elapsed, it will not count toward resolution [1].
What is the deadline for a departure to count?
A departure must occur on or before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The 48-hour validity period may end after that deadline as long as the departure itself happened by then [1].
What sources are used to resolve the market?
Liquipedia is the primary resolution source. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1].
Does a name change count as leaving?
No. A name change or alias referring to the same player on the same team does not count as leaving [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
