Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Iowa ethanol production in 2026

Total Volume

$52.05K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Iowa ethanol production in 2026

Vol

$52.05K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $52.05K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $52.05K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

8 markets tracked

Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.3 billion gallons?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.3 billion gallons?	Kalshi	96%
Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.4 billion gallons?	Kalshi	96%
Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.5 billion gallons?	Kalshi	82%
Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.6 billion gallons?	Kalshi	43%
Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.7 billion gallons?	Kalshi	25%
Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.8 billion gallons?	Kalshi	13%
Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.9 billion gallons?	Kalshi	6%
Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 5.0 billion gallons?	Kalshi	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

96%

Top Probability

$52.05K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

2026 If IRFA reports that Iowa ethanol production for calendar year 2026 is above X billion gallons, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association’s reported Iowa ethanol production for calendar year 2026, measured in gallons. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Iowa ethanol production in 2026
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 2026

If IRFA reports that Iowa ethanol production for calendar year 2026 is above X billion gallons, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association’s reported Iowa ethanol production for calendar year 2026, measured in gallons. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If IRFA reports that Iowa ethanol production for calendar year 2026 is above 

5.0 billion gallons, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association’s reported Iowa ethanol production for calendar year 2026, measured in gallons. Early close con"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $52.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 5.0 billion gallons?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 7, 2027): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.9 billion gallons?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 7, 2027): Vol $8.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.3 billion gallons?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 7, 2027): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 95.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.4 billion gallons?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 7, 2027): Vol $19.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 95.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.8 billion gallons?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 7, 2027): Vol $10.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.7 billion gallons?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 7, 2027): Vol $2.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.6 billion gallons?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 7, 2027): Vol $4.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 43.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.5 billion gallons?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 7, 2027): Vol $4.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 81.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 18.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Iowa ethanol production in 2026

Volume$52.05K

Markets8

8 of 8

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KALSHI

Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.3 billion gallons?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 95.5¢No 4.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.3 billion gallons?

If IRFA reports that Iowa ethanol production for calendar year 2026 is above 4.3 billion gallons, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association’s reported Iowa ethanol production for calendar year 2026, measured in gallons. Early close con

KALSHI

Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.4 billion gallons?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 95.5¢No 4.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.4 billion gallons?

If IRFA reports that Iowa ethanol production for calendar year 2026 is above 4.4 billion gallons, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association’s reported Iowa ethanol production for calendar year 2026, measured in gallons. Early close con

KALSHI

Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.5 billion gallons?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 81.5¢No 18.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.5 billion gallons?

If IRFA reports that Iowa ethanol production for calendar year 2026 is above 4.5 billion gallons, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association’s reported Iowa ethanol production for calendar year 2026, measured in gallons. Early close con

KALSHI

Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.6 billion gallons?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 43.0¢No 57.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.6 billion gallons?

If IRFA reports that Iowa ethanol production for calendar year 2026 is above 4.6 billion gallons, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association’s reported Iowa ethanol production for calendar year 2026, measured in gallons. Early close con

KALSHI

Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.7 billion gallons?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 24.5¢No 75.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.7 billion gallons?

If IRFA reports that Iowa ethanol production for calendar year 2026 is above 4.7 billion gallons, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association’s reported Iowa ethanol production for calendar year 2026, measured in gallons. Early close con

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Iowa ethanol production in 2026

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Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.3 billion gallons?

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Iowa ethanol production in 2026

Markets (8)

Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.3 billion gallons?

Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.3 billion gallons?

Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.4 billion gallons?

Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.4 billion gallons?

Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.5 billion gallons?

Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.5 billion gallons?

Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.6 billion gallons?

Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.6 billion gallons?

Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.7 billion gallons?

Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.7 billion gallons?

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Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.3 billion gallons?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Iowa ethanol production in 2026

Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.3 billion gallons?

Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.3 billion gallons?

Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.4 billion gallons?

Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.4 billion gallons?

Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.5 billion gallons?

Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.5 billion gallons?

Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.6 billion gallons?

Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.6 billion gallons?

Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.7 billion gallons?

Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.7 billion gallons?

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