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Lowest temperature in San Francisco on October 21?

Lowest temperature in San Francisco on October 21?
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Events

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Markets

11

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

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Reported volume · provider units

11

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0

Reviewed equivalent pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC

About This Event

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketClimate
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on October 20?

Lowest temperature in San Francisco on October 20?

PM $60
Will the lowest temperature in San Francisco be 62°F or higher on October 20?Yes 49%
Will the lowest temperature in San Francisco be between 48-49°F on October 20?Yes 34%
Will the lowest temperature in San Francisco be between 50-51°F on October 20?Yes 34%
+8 moreNext deadline Oct 20, 2026 UTC
PolymarketClimate
Highest temperature in San Francisco on October 21?

Highest temperature in San Francisco on October 21?

PM $0
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on October 21?Yes 26.5%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on October 21?Yes 23%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 74°F or higher on October 21?Yes 22.5%
+8 moreNext deadline Oct 21, 2026 UTC
PolymarketClimate
Lowest temperature in Guangzhou on October 21?

Lowest temperature in Guangzhou on October 21?

PM $460.3
Will the lowest temperature in Guangzhou be 25°C on October 21?Yes 41.5%
Will the lowest temperature in Guangzhou be 18°C or below on October 21?Yes 37%
Will the lowest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C or higher on October 21?Yes 35%
+8 moreNext deadline Oct 21, 2026 UTC
PolymarketClimate
Lowest temperature in Taipei on October 21?

Lowest temperature in Taipei on October 21?

PM $370.61
Will the lowest temperature in Taipei be 19°C or below on October 21?Yes 40.5%
Will the lowest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on October 21?Yes 35%
Will the lowest temperature in Taipei be 21°C on October 21?Yes 34.5%
+8 moreNext deadline Oct 21, 2026 UTC
PolymarketClimate
Lowest temperature in Chongqing on October 21?

Lowest temperature in Chongqing on October 21?

PM $360
Will the lowest temperature in Chongqing be 13°C or below on October 21?Yes 40%
Will the lowest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on October 21?Yes 37.5%
Will the lowest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on October 21?Yes 34%
+8 moreNext deadline Oct 21, 2026 UTC
PolymarketClimate
Lowest temperature in Lucknow on October 21?

Lowest temperature in Lucknow on October 21?

PM $349.99
Will the lowest temperature in Lucknow be 24°C or higher on October 21?Yes 45%
Will the lowest temperature in Lucknow be 19°C on October 21?Yes 35%
Will the lowest temperature in Lucknow be 18°C on October 21?Yes 34%
+8 moreNext deadline Oct 21, 2026 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

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Reviewed equivalent pairs

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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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