FDA approves Retatrutide this year? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETScience

FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

Name: FDA approves Retatrutide this year?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$556.60K

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Markets

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FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

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Polymarket

markets · $556.60K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $556.60K

100%

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1 market tracked

FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
FDA approves Retatrutide this year?	Poly	30%

AI Analysis

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30%

Top Probability

$556.60K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

Retatrutide is a triple agonist hormone/peptide drug developed by Eli Lilly and currently in trial to treat obesity, fatty liver disease, type-2 diabetes, knee osteoarthritis, and more. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants a full or conditional approval for Eli Lilly’s for a drug product whose active ingredient is Eli Lilly’s retatrutide (including any brand name or identifier such as LY3437943) for any use between market creation and December

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, April 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** FDA approves Retatrutide this year?
**Category:** Science | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (259 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** Retatrutide is a triple agonist hormone/peptide drug developed by Eli Lilly and currently in trial to treat obesity, fatty liver disease, type-2 diabetes, knee osteoarthritis, and more.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants a full or conditional approval for Eli Lilly’s for a drug product whose active ingredient is Eli Lilly’s retatrutide (including any brand name or identifier such as LY3437943) for any use between market creation and December 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Retatrutide is a triple agonist hormone/peptide drug developed by Eli Lilly and currently in trial to treat obesity, fatty liver disease, type-2 diabetes, knee osteoarthritis, and more.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants a full or conditional app"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $556.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $6.1K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 91.94)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. FDA approves Retatrutide this year?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $556.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 30.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

258d 5h remaining

Dec 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

30¢

Polymarket

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FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

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FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Events (1)