FDA approves Retatrutide this year? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETScience

FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

Name: FDA approves Retatrutide this year?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$424.75

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $424.75

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $424.75

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
FDA approves Retatrutide this year?	Poly	16%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

16%

Top Probability

$424.75

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Retatrutide is a triple agonist hormone/peptide drug developed by Eli Lilly and currently in trial to treat obesity, fatty liver disease, type-2 diabetes, knee osteoarthritis, and more. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants a full or conditional approval for Eli Lilly’s for a drug product whose active ingredient is Eli Lilly’s retatrutide (including any brand name or identifier such as LY3437943) for any use between market creation and December

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** FDA approves Retatrutide this year?
**Category:** Science | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (349 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** Retatrutide is a triple agonist hormone/peptide drug developed by Eli Lilly and currently in trial to treat obesity, fatty liver disease, type-2 diabetes, knee osteoarthritis, and more.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants a full or conditional approval for Eli Lilly’s for a drug product whose active ingredient is Eli Lilly’s retatrutide (including any brand name or identifier such as LY3437943) for any use between market creation and December 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Retatrutide is a triple agonist hormone/peptide drug developed by Eli Lilly and currently in trial to treat obesity, fatty liver disease, type-2 diabetes, knee osteoarthritis, and more.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants a full or conditional app"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $425
* **Total Liquidity:** $1.5K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.28)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. FDA approves Retatrutide this year?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $425
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Next Market Closes

348d 9h remaining

Dec 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

16¢

Polymarket

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/AqCqjb" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="FDA approves Retatrutide this year?"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Polymarket

FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)