PPOLYMARKET

FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

Yes3%+0.4%

Vol$579.67K

Outcomes2

3%

TradeTrade on Polymarket

MarketPOLYMARKETactive

FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

MarketPOLYMARKETactiveOther

FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

NoNo Price

97¢

|

VolTotal Volume

$579.67K

|

Outcomes

2

Ends

Dec 31, 2026

in 4 months

Trade on Polymarket

FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

No

97¢

|

Vol

$579.67K

|

Outcomes

2

Yes2.8¢

No97.2¢

Price History

FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Resolution Info

Market Stats

Resolution Countdown

122 Days Left

December 31, 2026 • 12:00 AM

Last Updated

less than a minute ago

Resolution Information

Status

Active

Expected Resolution

December 31, 2026

12:00 AM GMT+0

UMA Protocol

Markets are resolved using the UMA optimistic oracle system with community verification.

Accuracy

99.7%

Resolved

15,420

Avg Time

< 2 hours

Disputes

0.3%

Resolution Criteria

Retatrutide is a triple agonist hormone/peptide drug developed by Eli Lilly and currently in trial to treat obesity, fatty liver disease, type-2 diabetes, knee osteoarthritis, and more. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants a full or conditional approval for Eli Lilly’s for a drug product whose active ingredient is Eli Lilly’s retatrutide (including any brand name or identifier such as LY3437943) for any use between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." An approval is defined as: For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA) For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application The following constitute qualifying approvals: Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit), Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints), Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs The following do not constitute qualifying approvals: Approvable letters that require additional actions before approval Tentative approvals pending patent or exclusivity expiration FDA requests for additional information or studies Extension of Prescription Drug User Fee Amendments dates Approval for compassionate use or expanded access programs only Approval only for export or for use outside the United States Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) without full approval Complete Response Letters (CRLs) indicating the application cannot be approved in its current form If the listed drug is approved within this market’s timeframe, the market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of potential Advisory Committee votes against approval or later withdrawal of approval. Conditional approvals may include post-marketing requirements or commitments and still qualify. The primary resolution source will be official information from the FDA; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Market Still Active

This market has not yet resolved. Resolution will occur after the specified end date based on the criteria above.