How many launches will SpaceX have in November?
K 104.5K contracts
1
11
How many launches will SpaceX have in November?
K 104.5K contracts
1
11
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 11, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Above 6 at 97.5%.
Kalshi
- Above 697.5%
- Above 782.5%
- Above 846.5%
- Above 97.5%
- Above 102.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 104.5K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
11
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 11, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
In Nov 2026 If SpaceX has more than X launches in Nov 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-10T06:00:06.086Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This event asks how many SpaceX launches will occur in November 2026. The source states that "If SpaceX has more than X launches in Nov 2026, then the market resolves to Yes" [1]. Each listed market uses a different threshold, from "Above 6" to "Above 16," so each one is a separate yes or no question about the same monthly count. The provider lists the event as active [1].
The contract rules give a close time of 2026-12-07T15:00:00.000Z for every market in the sample [1]. The source excerpt also says the event's listed end time was "not supplied" [1]. Read the close time as the market field for each contract, not as a confirmed resolution date or an outcome. No resolution is recorded in the supplied evidence.
Reading the snapshot
The provider data was observed at 2026-11-10T06:00:06Z and retrieved at 2026-11-10T08:37:48Z [1]. These are the times for this snapshot only. The prices below describe that observation and should not be treated as live quotes.
The Yes prices fall steadily as the threshold rises. "Above 6" is quoted at 0.965 Yes, "Above 7" at 0.865, and "Above 8" at 0.545. Above 9 is quoted at 0.11, Above 10 at 0.025, and Above 11 at 0.015 [1]. Prices from Above 12 through Above 16 are between 0.005 and 0.01 [1]. Each Yes price has a matching No price, so each row is a quoted pair [1].
These are quoted prices from one platform in one snapshot. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. Volume and the number of traders are not in the evidence, so the prices do not show how much liquidity sits behind them or how many participants agree.
What remains uncertain
The sample includes all 11 saved markets for this event, and the coverage record marks it as not partial [1]. This covers the saved provider event only. The source notes that the sample "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Because only one platform is included, no cross-platform comparison is possible. Differences between contracts on different platforms would need their own rule and timing review before any comparison.
The supplied evidence does not explain why any price is where it is, and it contains no news about SpaceX launch schedules. The sample alone cannot tell a reader what the actual November count will be.
References
- Kalshi: How many launches will SpaceX have in November?. Provider data observed 2026-11-10T06:00:06.086Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 10, 2026 UTCOverview
The contract asks how many launches SpaceX will conduct in November 2026. Under the contract rules, the market resolves to Yes if SpaceX has more than a stated number of launches in that month [1]. The Kalshi event was retrieved with an active status, and the retrieved record does not supply a listed end time [1]. The saved event contains a set of separate threshold markets. Each one asks whether the November 2026 launch count exceeds a specific number, with thresholds in the saved set running from above 6 to above 16 [1]. Each threshold is its own contract with its own Yes and No outcomes, so the markets should be read individually rather than as a single forecast of one number. The saved event includes 11 markets, and all of them are included in the saved sample. That sample covers the saved event, not every count that could occur in the real world. The saved market records show a listed closing date of December 7, 2026 at 15:00 UTC [1]. This is a field in the contract data. It is not an announced event date, and it does not by itself describe when or how a result will be determined. Prices in the saved snapshot are observations from a past moment. They are not current quotes, executable prices, or verified probabilities.
Historical Context
The launch-count contract concerns SpaceX Starship, which the Wikipedia entry describes as a spacecraft and second stage under development by SpaceX [2]. The entry describes the vehicle as stacked atop its booster, Super Heavy, and designed to transport passengers and cargo to destinations including Earth orbit, the Moon, and Mars [2]. It also describes the vehicle as designed to be reusable [2]. SpaceX Starbase is described as the main testing and production location for Starship launch vehicles, and as the company's headquarters [3]. The entry says the site is located in Starbase, Texas, and has been under near-continuous development since the late 2010s [3]. These descriptions are background from encyclopedia entries. They do not establish the vehicle's status or launch schedule for any month.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a count of SpaceX launches in November 2026 against a threshold chosen for each market [1]. Because each market uses a different number, the set of markets describes how the count compares with several levels rather than predicting a single value. The Starship background explains why the company's launch activity is a subject of interest, since the vehicle is described as a reusable spacecraft intended for a range of missions [2][3]. The background does not confirm how many launches have occurred or will occur in November 2026.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-11 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the contract actually measure?
It measures whether SpaceX has more than a given number of launches in November 2026. If the count exceeds that number, the market resolves to Yes [1].
Does a price show the chance that the outcome will happen?
Not on its own. The saved prices are snapshots from a past observation time. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, so they should not be read as a confirmed chance of any outcome.
Does the listed closing date mean the launch count is final on that date?
No. The saved market data lists a closing date of December 7, 2026 at 15:00 UTC [1]. That is a contract field, not an announced event date, and the retrieved record does not establish when or how the result will be determined.
Why are there many markets for the same event?
The saved event includes separate markets with different thresholds, such as above 6 and above 10 [1]. Each market asks its own yes or no question, so they are not alternatives to choose between.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
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