Snapshot observed 2026-11-11T03:00:05.967Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

This event asks how many SpaceX launches will occur in November 2026. The rules state that the market "will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between November 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET" [1]. The named resolution source is the SpaceX launches page at spacex.com [1].

The rules also set a fallback. If that source has missing or erroneous data, the market "will remain open until December 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, to allow for updates," and if spacex.com has not updated by then, it "will resolve according to a consensus of credible reporting" [1]. The December 7 date is a rule provision, not an announced event.

The listed end time is 2026-12-01T04:59:00.000Z [1]. On the Eastern offset in effect in late November, that corresponds to 11:59 PM ET on November 30, matching the rule window. The listed time is a close time and does not, by itself, show when the outcome will be determined.

Reading the snapshot

The snapshot was observed at 2026-11-11T03:00:05.967Z and retrieved at 2026-11-11T03:52:16.792Z [1]. These are past capture times. Prices may have changed since, and this snapshot should not be read as the current state of the market.

The sample includes all five saved markets for this provider event, and the coverage record marks it as not partial [1]. The excerpt warns, however, that this does not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome [1]. All five contracts come from one provider event on one platform, so no cross-platform comparison is involved.

The Yes prices in the snapshot are: fewer than 13 launches at 0.95; exactly 13 at 0.076; exactly 14 at 0.0325; exactly 15 at 0.0365; and 16 or more at 0.0285 [1]. These are contract-level snapshots, not executable quotes. The Yes prices do not sum to 1, so they cannot be read as a normalized probability distribution. The evidence does not include volume, so it says nothing about liquidity or how many traders hold positions.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not show how many SpaceX launches have occurred in November 2026, what is scheduled, or whether any launch has been delayed. It contains no news, no explanation for the prices, and no information on trader counts. The spacex.com page named in the rules is not included in the supplied evidence, so its current content cannot be verified here. Readers should review the full rule text and the resolution source directly before drawing conclusions about the outcome.

References

1. Polymarket: How many SpaceX launches in November 2026?. Provider data observed 2026-11-11T03:00:05.967Z.