This prediction market topic concerns the probability of a Category 4 hurricane making landfall in the conterminous United States before the end of 2026. A Category 4 hurricane is defined by the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale as having maximum sustained winds between 130 and 156 mph, capable of causing catastrophic damage. Landfall is the specific meteorological event when the storm's center crosses a coastline. The market resolves based on official reports from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), a division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This topic sits at the intersection of climatology, meteorology, and risk assessment, attracting interest from insurers, emergency managers, climate scientists, and the general public concerned with coastal resilience. Recent active Atlantic hurricane seasons and evolving climate patterns, including elevated sea surface temperatures, have heightened focus on the frequency and intensity of major landfalling hurricanes. The question is not merely academic, it has direct implications for multi-billion dollar industries and public safety planning across vulnerable regions from Texas to Maine.

Historical Context

The historical record of Category 4 U.S. landfalls provides crucial context for assessing future probability. Since 1851, approximately 35 hurricanes of Category 4 or 5 strength have made landfall in the U.S. Notable Category 4 landfalls include the 1900 Galveston Hurricane, the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane in the Florida Keys, Hurricane Hugo in South Carolina (1989), Hurricane Harvey in Texas (2017), Hurricane Ian in Florida (2022), and Hurricane Ida in Louisiana (2021). The frequency of these intense landfalls appears to have increased in recent decades, a subject of ongoing scientific research. The period from 2017 to 2022 was particularly active, with four Category 4 or 5 landfalls (Harvey, Michael, Ida, Ian). Prior to that, the U.S. experienced an unprecedented 12-year major hurricane landfall drought from 2006 (Wilma) to 2017 (Harvey), demonstrating the high interannual variability inherent in hurricane climatology. This historical volatility makes long-term prediction challenging but underscores the persistent threat to coastlines.

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