Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 12:27 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech

Best AI model on October 26?

Name: Best AI model on October 26?
End: 2026-10-27T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$1.93K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Best AI model on October 26?

Vol

$1.93K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $1.93K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Price gaps

of 0 cross-platform

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.93K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

4 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?	Poly	48%
Will any other model be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?	Poly	31%
Will claude-opus-5.5-high be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?	Poly	21%
Will claude-fable-5.1-max be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?	Poly	14%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

48%

Top Probability

$1.93K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Best AI model on October 26?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 27, 2026 (14 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.

Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at htt"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $1.1K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.71)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 27, 2026): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 48.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will claude-opus-5.5-high be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 27, 2026): Vol $21
  DATA: [Yes: 21.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will claude-fable-5.1-max be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 27, 2026): Vol $171
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will any other model be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 27, 2026): Vol $21
  DATA: [Yes: 31.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETTech