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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff

Name: Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff
End: 2026-05-26T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$82.88K

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Trade on Polymarket

Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff

Vol

$82.88K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $82.88K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $82.88K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

9 markets tracked

Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 1,200,000 and 1,500,000 voters?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 1,200,000 and 1,500,000 voters?	Poly	30%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 900,000 and 1,200,000 voters?	Poly	27%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 1,500,000 and 1,800,000 voters?	Poly	17%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 600,000 and 900,000 voters?	Poly	8%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be below 600,000 voters?	Poly	4%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 1,800,000 and 2,100,000 voters?	Poly	4%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 2,100,000 and 2,400,000 voters?	Poly	1%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 2,400,000 and 2,700,000 voters?	Poly	1%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be 2,700,000 voters or greater?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

30%

Top Probability

$82.88K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. The primary r

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, August 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 26, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.  

The primary r

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $82.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $16.1K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 5.15)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be below 600,000 voters?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 26, 2026): Vol $939
  DATA: [Yes: 3.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.2% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 600,000 and 900,000 voters?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 26, 2026): Vol $53.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 900,000 and 1,200,000 voters?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 26, 2026): Vol $939
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 1,200,000 and 1,500,000 voters?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 26, 2026): Vol $20.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 30.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.6% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 1,500,000 and 1,800,000 voters?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 26, 2026): Vol $516
  DATA: [Yes: 16.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.3% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 1,800,000 and 2,100,000 voters?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 26, 2026): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.4% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 2,100,000 and 2,400,000 voters?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 26, 2026): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.6% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 2,400,000 and 2,700,000 voters?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 26, 2026): Vol $2.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be 2,700,000 voters or greater?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 26, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics