Name: Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff
End: 2026-05-26T00:00:00.000Z

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Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff | PredictPedia

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Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 600,000 and 900,000 voters?

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Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 600,000 and 900,000 voters?	Poly	28%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 1,200,000 and 1,500,000 voters?	Poly	28%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 900,000 and 1,200,000 voters?	Poly	24%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 1,800,000 and 2,100,000 voters?	Poly	14%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 2,100,000 and 2,400,000 voters?	Poly	14%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 1,500,000 and 1,800,000 voters?	Poly	12%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 2,400,000 and 2,700,000 voters?	Poly	12%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be 2,700,000 voters or greater?	Poly	8%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be below 600,000 voters?	Poly	8%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, March 29, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 26, 2026 (58 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.  

The primary r

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $3.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $14.1K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.26)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be below 600,000 voters?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 600,000 and 900,000 voters?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 28.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 900,000 and 1,200,000 voters?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 23.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 1,200,000 and 1,500,000 voters?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 26, 2026): Vol $3.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 28.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 1,500,000 and 1,800,000 voters?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 1,800,000 and 2,100,000 voters?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 2,100,000 and 2,400,000 voters?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 2,400,000 and 2,700,000 voters?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.2% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be 2,700,000 voters or greater?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.8% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

57d 11h remaining

May 26, 2026 12:00 AM

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16¢

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Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 600,000 and 900,000 voters?

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Events (1)

Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff

Markets (9)

Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 600,000 and 900,000 voters?

Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 600,000 and 900,000 voters?

Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 1,200,000 and 1,500,000 voters?

Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 1,200,000 and 1,500,000 voters?

Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 900,000 and 1,200,000 voters?

Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 900,000 and 1,200,000 voters?

Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 1,800,000 and 2,100,000 voters?

Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 1,800,000 and 2,100,000 voters?

Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 2,100,000 and 2,400,000 voters?

Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 2,100,000 and 2,400,000 voters?

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Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 600,000 and 900,000 voters?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff

Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 600,000 and 900,000 voters?

Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 600,000 and 900,000 voters?

Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 1,200,000 and 1,500,000 voters?

Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 1,200,000 and 1,500,000 voters?

Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 900,000 and 1,200,000 voters?

Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 900,000 and 1,200,000 voters?

Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 1,800,000 and 2,100,000 voters?

Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 1,800,000 and 2,100,000 voters?

Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 2,100,000 and 2,400,000 voters?

Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 2,100,000 and 2,400,000 voters?

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