Oscar Winner: Best Picture
PM $1.13M · K 12.09M contracts
13
233
Oscar Winner: Best Picture
PM $1.13M · K 12.09M contracts
13
233
Polymarket vs Kalshi
Snapshot from
As of Nov 11, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC, The Odyssey is priced at 57% on Polymarket and 56.5% on Kalshi.
| Outcome (Yes price) | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| The OdysseySame question, fine print differs | 57% | 56.5% | 0.5 pts |
| You Can See EverythingSame question, fine print differs | 17.2% | 16.5% | 0.7 pts |
| Dune: Part ThreeSame question, fine print differs | 8.5% | 9.5% | 1.0 pts |
| DiggerSame question, fine print differs | 3% | 0.5% | 2.5 pts |
| Wild Horse NineSame question, fine print differs | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.2 pts |
| ArtificialSame question, fine print differs | 0.4% | 1.5% | 1.0 pts |
| The Social ReckoningSame question, fine print differs | <0.1% | 0.5% | 0.5 pts |
| Disclosure DaySame question, fine print differs | <0.1% | 0.5% | 0.5 pts |
Yes prices for outcomes an automated review found to ask the same question on both platforms. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $1.13M · K 12.09M contracts
Reported volume · provider units
233
Saved contracts
18
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 11, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
In 2027 If X has won Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. The 99th Academy Awards are expected to be held in March 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-11T00:00:06.245Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
Each contract asks whether a named film will win Best Picture at a specified awards ceremony. On Kalshi, the event "Oscar Winner: Best Picture" resolves to Yes if the named film has won Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards [1]. The excerpt says the ceremony is expected to be held in March 2027, which is a provider description rather than a confirmed date [1]. Polymarket runs a separate event, "Oscars 2027: Best Picture Winner," with per-film contracts that refer to the same 99th Academy Awards [3]. Nomination contracts ask a different question, whether a film will be nominated, not whether it will win [2].
Reading the snapshot
The Kalshi market data was observed at 2026-11-11 00:00:06 UTC and retrieved at 00:52:49 UTC [1]. Treat these prices as a record of that moment only.
Kalshi lists The Odyssey at Yes 0.565 and No 0.435 [1]. Polymarket's winner event lists The Odyssey at Yes 0.58 and No 0.42 [3]. These come from two different platforms, so they are shown separately and not averaged. A difference between them does not by itself indicate an opportunity to trade, and these figures are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
The sample is partial. Kalshi's event has 41 markets, and 6 are included; Polymarket's winner event has 27, and 6 are included [1][3]. Included markets were selected by highest Yes price, so the omitted contracts should not be read as lower-priced. Within the sample, Kalshi lists Dune: Part Three at Yes 0.075 and Polymarket lists it at Yes 0.07 [1][3].
Listed close times also differ. The Kalshi Best Picture winner markets show an end date of 2027-12-31 at 15:00 UTC [1]. The Polymarket winner markets show dates in March and July 2027 [3]. A listed end date is not a resolution. The outcome depends on the contract rules and the ceremony itself.
What remains uncertain
The snapshot does not explain why prices sit where they do. The evidence does not include trading volume or the number of traders, so it cannot show how liquid these markets are. Both excerpts are truncated, so the full contract rules are not available here. The evidence contains no ceremony results and no recent news, and prices may have changed after the snapshot was taken.
References
- Kalshi: Oscar Winner: Best Picture. Provider data observed 2026-11-11T00:00:06.245Z.
- Polymarket: Oscars 2027: Best Picture Nominations . Provider data observed 2026-11-11T00:00:06.245Z.
- Polymarket: Oscars 2027: Best Picture Winner. Provider data observed 2026-11-11T00:00:06.245Z.
- Kalshi: Critics Choice Awards: Best Picture. Provider data observed 2026-11-11T00:00:06.245Z.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-11T00:00:06.245Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Kalshi Oscar contract resolves to Yes if the named film wins Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards. The source says those awards "are expected to be held in March 2027" [1]. The Polymarket winner event covers the same award year [3]. Polymarket's separate nominations event asks a different question, so a nomination contract and a winner contract do not measure the same outcome [2].
The Critics Choice contract uses a different award and a different timing statement. Its excerpt says the 32nd Critics Choice Awards "are expected to be held on January 03, 2027" [4]. The listed close time for the sampled Kalshi Critics Choice markets is 2028-01-04T15:00:00.000Z. That metadata does not match the expected date in the excerpt, so the full rules should be checked before treating either date as the event date.
Reading the snapshot
The data was observed at 2026-11-11T00:00:06Z and retrieved later the same UTC day [1][2]. These are quoted prices from one saved snapshot. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
For The Odyssey, the sampled Kalshi Oscar winner contract shows a Yes price of 0.565, with a listed close of 2027-12-31T15:00:00.000Z [1]. The sampled Polymarket winner contract shows 0.58, with a listed close of 2027-07-01T03:59:00.000Z [3]. These are different contracts on different platforms with different wording and close times. The 0.015 difference should not be treated as an arbitrage signal or averaged into a single figure.
Within the sampled Kalshi Oscar event, The Odyssey has the highest included Yes price at 0.565. The next included films are You Can See Everything at 0.165 and The Black Ball at 0.145 [1]. Those lower figures describe only the included markets. Because 35 of 41 Kalshi markets were omitted, no omitted film should be assumed to have a lower price.
What remains uncertain
The sample is partial throughout. Kalshi's Oscar winner event includes 6 of 41 markets, and Polymarket's winner event includes 6 of 27 [1][3]. Rankings should not be combined across events or providers. The supplied evidence includes no trading volume, liquidity, or trader counts, so the prices cannot be read as market depth or as agreement among participants. The excerpts are also truncated, and the evidence does not explain why prices are where they are.
References
- Kalshi: Oscar Winner: Best Picture. Provider data observed 2026-11-11T00:00:06.245Z.
- Polymarket: Oscars 2027: Best Picture Nominations . Provider data observed 2026-11-11T00:00:06.245Z.
- Polymarket: Oscars 2027: Best Picture Winner. Provider data observed 2026-11-11T00:00:06.245Z.
- Kalshi: Critics Choice Awards: Best Picture. Provider data observed 2026-11-11T00:00:06.245Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 11, 2026 UTCOverview
PredictPedia tracks prediction-market contracts tied to the Academy Awards. The Academy Award for Best Picture is one of the Academy Awards presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS), and it has been awarded since the awards debuted on May 16, 1929 [5]. The award goes to the producers of the film rather than to an individual director or actor [5]. The Best Picture contracts in this set concern the 99th Academy Awards. A Kalshi contract titled "Oscar Winner: Best Picture" states that if a film has won Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, the market resolves to Yes [1]. The same source says the 99th Academy Awards are expected to be held in March 2027, and that the market and its products have not been endorsed by the Academy [1]. The word "expected" matters here: the excerpt describes an anticipated date, not a confirmed ceremony date announced in the source. Polymarket runs related events on the same ceremony. One covers nominations for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards [2], and another covers the winner in that category [3]. Both describe the ceremony as the 99th Academy Awards in 2027 [2][3]. Contract close times differ across the individual markets, so a contract's end date should be read as the time it stops trading or closes under its own rules, not as the date the ceremony takes place or the date a result is official. A price on these contracts is a snapshot of market pricing at one moment. It is not an executable quote, and it is not a verified probability that a film will win or be nominated.
Historical Context
The Best Picture award has been presented by AMPAS since its debut on May 16, 1929 [5]. The supplied background does not include further history of the award, so this article does not add details about past winners or ceremony formats.
Why It Matters
These contracts measure whether a specific film is recognized in a specific Academy Awards category. The Kalshi Best Picture winner contract resolves Yes if the named film wins Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards [1]. Because the award goes to a film's producers [5], the contract's resolution language focuses on the film being named the winner rather than on any individual person. Nomination contracts, such as those on Polymarket, ask a related but separate question about whether a film is nominated for Best Picture [2]. A film can be nominated without winning, so the two types of contract should not be treated as the same bet.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-11 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi and Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Who receives the Best Picture award?
The Academy Award for Best Picture goes to the producers of the film [5].
What does a Best Picture winner contract resolve on?
The Kalshi contract resolves to Yes if the named film has won Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards [1].
When is the 99th Academy Awards ceremony?
The Kalshi contract says the 99th Academy Awards are expected to be held in March 2027 [1]. That is described as an expectation in the source, not a confirmed date.
Does a contract price show the chance a film will win?
No. A price is a snapshot from a moment in time and is not an executable quote or a verified probability [1][2][3]. Because the sources are contract listings, they do not establish how likely any outcome is.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
1
Same-question pairs
18
Largest saved gap: 2.5 percentage points.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
