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Event GroupPOLYMARKETSports

UFC Fight Night: Vince Morales vs. Colby Thicknesse (Bantamweight, Prelims)

Name: UFC Fight Night: Vince Morales vs. Colby Thicknesse (Bantamweight, Prelims)
End: 2026-05-03T03:59:59.999Z

Total Volume

$96.43K

Events

Markets

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UFC Fight Night: Vince Morales vs. Colby Thicknesse (Bantamweight, Prelims)

Vol

$96.43K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $96.43K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $96.43K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

9 markets tracked

Over/Under 0.5 Rounds

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Over/Under 0.5 Rounds	Poly	81%
Over/Under 1.5 Rounds	Poly	74%
Over/Under 2.5 Rounds	Poly	72%
Fight to Go the Distance?	Poly	69%
UFC Fight Night: Vince Morales vs. Colby Thicknesse (Bantamweight, Prelims)	Poly	45%
Will the fight be won by submission?	Poly	27%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?	Poly	20%
Will Vince Morales win by KO or TKO?	Poly	10%
Will Colby Thicknesse win by KO or TKO?	Poly	9%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

81%

Top Probability

$96.43K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Vince Morales" if Vince Morales is officially declared the winner of the fight against Colby Thicknesse at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026. It will resolve to "Colby Thicknesse" if Colby Thicknesse is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 16, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this mark

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** UFC Fight Night: Vince Morales vs. Colby Thicknesse (Bantamweight, Prelims)
**Category:** Sports | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 3, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Vince Morales" if Vince Morales is officially declared the winner of the fight against Colby Thicknesse at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026.

It will resolve to "Colby Thicknesse" if Colby Thicknesse is officially declared the winner.

If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 16, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this mark

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Vince Morales and Colby Thicknesse at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026, ends by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

If the fight e"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $96.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $72.0K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.34)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 20.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Vince Morales win by KO or TKO?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $2
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Colby Thicknesse win by KO or TKO?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $3
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the fight be won by submission?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 27.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Over/Under 0.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Over: 81.0% (0.0%)] | [Under: 19.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Over/Under 1.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Over: 74.0% (0.0%)] | [Under: 26.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Over/Under 2.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Over: 71.5% (0.0%)] | [Under: 28.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. UFC Fight Night: Vince Morales vs. Colby Thicknesse (Bantamweight, Prelims)
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $96.4K
  DATA: [Vince Morales: 44.5% (0.0%)] | [Colby Thicknesse: 55.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Fight to Go the Distance?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $12
  DATA: [Yes: 68.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 31.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETSports

UFC Fight Night: Vince Morales vs. Colby Thicknesse (Bantamweight, Prelims)

Volume$96.43K

Markets9

9 of 9

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POLYMARKET

Fight to Go the Distance?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 68.5¢No 31.5¢

POLYMARKETSports

Fight to Go the Distance?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Vince Morales and Colby Thicknesse at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026, goes the full scheduled number of rounds and the result is determined by the judges' scorecards. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

POLYMARKET

Will the fight be won by submission?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 27.0¢No 73.0¢

POLYMARKETSports

Will the fight be won by submission?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Vince Morales and Colby Thicknesse at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise

POLYMARKET

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 20.0¢No 80.0¢

POLYMARKETSports

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Vince Morales and Colby Thicknesse at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026, ends by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight e

POLYMARKET

Will Vince Morales win by KO or TKO?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 10.0¢No 90.0¢

POLYMARKETSports

Will Vince Morales win by KO or TKO?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vince Morales defeats Colby Thicknesse at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by

POLYMARKET

Will Colby Thicknesse win by KO or TKO?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 8.5¢No 91.5¢

POLYMARKETSports

Will Colby Thicknesse win by KO or TKO?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Colby Thicknesse defeats Vince Morales at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by

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Average Yes Price

45¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/BucVpZ" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="UFC Fight Night: Vince Morales vs. Colby Thicknesse (Bantamweight, Prelims)"></iframe>

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UFC Fight Night: Vince Morales vs. Colby Thicknesse (Bantamweight, Prelims)

UFC Fight Night: Vince Morales vs. Colby Thicknesse (Bantamweight, Prelims)

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

UFC Fight Night: Vince Morales vs. Colby Thicknesse (Bantamweight, Prelims)

Markets (9)

Fight to Go the Distance?

Fight to Go the Distance?

Will the fight be won by submission?

Will the fight be won by submission?

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

Will Vince Morales win by KO or TKO?

Will Vince Morales win by KO or TKO?

Will Colby Thicknesse win by KO or TKO?

Will Colby Thicknesse win by KO or TKO?

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Over/Under 0.5 Rounds

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

UFC Fight Night: Vince Morales vs. Colby Thicknesse (Bantamweight, Prelims)

Fight to Go the Distance?

Fight to Go the Distance?

Will the fight be won by submission?

Will the fight be won by submission?

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

Will Vince Morales win by KO or TKO?

Will Vince Morales win by KO or TKO?

Will Colby Thicknesse win by KO or TKO?

Will Colby Thicknesse win by KO or TKO?

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