$1.02M
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6
$1.02M
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6
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whethe
Prediction markets currently assign a 53% probability that 2026 will rank as the fourth-hottest year on record. This slim majority indicates the market views a fourth-place finish as the most likely single outcome, but sees it as only marginally more probable than not. The remaining liquidity is distributed across other rank outcomes, with significant attention on ranks three and five, reflecting high uncertainty. The substantial $1 million in trading volume across these related markets demonstrates strong interest and provides confidence in the current price as a meaningful consensus.
The pricing is primarily anchored by the established trend of anthropogenic climate change and the current phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. The record-shattering global temperatures of 2023 and 2024, driven by a strong El Niño, have set a new baseline. The market is pricing in the high likelihood that the current El Niño will have transitioned to a neutral or La Niña phase by 2026, which typically has a moderating effect on global average temperatures compared to El Niño peaks. However, the underlying long-term warming trend from greenhouse gas emissions makes a fall completely out of the top five hottest years extremely unlikely, compressing the probable outcomes into ranks 3, 4, or 5.
Secondly, market analysis incorporates a "lag effect." The immense heat content currently stored in the world's oceans due to recent records will continue to influence the climate system for years. This oceanic inertia provides a floor for how cool 2026 could potentially be, making a drastic drop in the rankings improbable even if a strong La Niña develops.
The primary near-term catalyst is the evolution of the ENSO forecast through 2025. If forecasts shift toward a persistent or returning El Niño in 2026, probabilities would swiftly move toward higher ranks (1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest). Conversely, a forecast for a very strong La Niña could shift odds toward rank 5 or lower.
Unpredictable climate anomalies, such as a major volcanic eruption injecting significant sunlight-reflecting aerosols into the stratosphere, could abruptly cool global temperatures and drastically alter the odds. The timing of such an event before or during 2026 would be critical. Market sensitivity to monthly temperature anomalies and official forecasts from agencies like NOAA and the Met Office will increase as the resolution date approaches in late 2026.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on where 2026 will rank among the hottest years ever recorded, based on the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index. The index provides a consistent, long-term dataset of global surface temperature anomalies relative to a baseline period, typically 1951-1980. The ranking will be determined by comparing 2026's annual average temperature anomaly against all other years in the historical record, which extends back to 1880. A rank of 1 would indicate 2026 is the single hottest year on record, while a lower rank places it among cooler years, though still potentially within the top tier given recent warming trends. The resolution depends on the final, quality-controlled data release from NASA GISS, which usually occurs in mid-January of the following year. The market's outcome serves as a direct measure of both the current trajectory of global warming and the efficacy of existing climate policies. Interest in this specific annual temperature ranking stems from its role as a clear, quantifiable benchmark for climate change. It cuts through complex climate models and provides a simple, annual report card on the state of the planet's climate system. Recent years have consistently set new records, with every year since 2014 ranking among the ten warmest on record, making the question of whether 2026 will continue this streak or potentially break the all-time record a focal point for scientists, policymakers, and the public. The result has implications for international climate negotiations, national policy debates, and public perception of the urgency of the climate crisis.
The systematic, instrument-based record of global average temperatures begins in 1880, with earlier estimates relying on proxy data like ice cores and tree rings. For much of the 20th century, year-to-year temperature variability was influenced by natural cycles like El Niño and volcanic eruptions, with no clear long-term trend until the latter decades. A significant shift began in the 1980s, as the signal of human-induced global warming emerged from the background noise. The year 1998, fueled by a powerful El Niño, stood as the hottest year on record for over a decade, becoming a common reference point in climate debates. This changed decisively in the 2010s. The year 2014 broke the 1998 record, and that record was subsequently broken in 2015, 2016, 2019, 2020, and 2023. The period from 2014 to 2023 now constitutes the ten warmest years in the 144-year record. The year 2016 remains the current record-holder, with a global temperature anomaly of approximately 1.02 degrees Celsius above the 1951-1980 baseline, boosted by a very strong El Niño event. This historical context shows that 2026 is not competing against a static background but entering a climate system where the baseline itself is rapidly shifting upward due to continued greenhouse gas emissions. The question is whether 2026 will be another data point in this steep, upward trend, potentially surpassing 2016, or if natural variability will temporarily place it slightly lower in the ranking.
The ranking of 2026 is far more than a scientific curiosity, it is a vital indicator with profound real-world consequences. A record-breaking year or one that solidifies the ongoing streak of extreme heat directly impacts policy. It provides undeniable evidence to support more aggressive emissions reduction targets under international agreements like the Paris Accord and can influence national legislation on energy, transportation, and industry. For vulnerable nations, especially small island states and coastal communities, each record year brings the tangible threats of sea-level rise, more intense storms, and coral reef bleaching closer to a crisis point. Economically, extreme heat years correlate with billions of dollars in damages from wildfires, droughts, floods, and reduced agricultural yields. The insurance and reinsurance industries closely monitor these trends to model risk and set premiums. For the public, a new temperature record or confirmation of a relentless warming trend can shift perception, increasing pressure on governments and corporations to act. Conversely, a year that ranks slightly lower, perhaps due to a La Niña cooling phase, could be misinterpreted as evidence that warming has paused, potentially slowing political momentum. The ranking is a single, powerful data point that encapsulates the accelerating challenge of climate change.
As of late 2024, the scientific community is closely monitoring the development of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions in the Pacific Ocean, which will be a primary determinant of 2026's temperature. A strong El Niño event, which transfers heat from the ocean to the atmosphere, typically boosts global average temperatures and increases the likelihood of record-breaking heat. The transition out of the 2023-2024 El Niño into potential La Niña conditions in 2025 adds complexity to forecasting 2026. Preliminary climate model projections for 2026 are not yet finalized, but the underlying trend from greenhouse gases suggests it will almost certainly be another year ranking within the top 10, if not the top 5. Key factors to watch include monthly temperature anomalies throughout 2025 and early 2026, Arctic sea ice extent, and global greenhouse gas emission trends.
It is a meticulously curated dataset that estimates the change in global surface air temperature relative to a baseline period (1951-1980). It combines land surface air temperatures from meteorological stations with sea surface temperatures from ships and buoys, applying corrections for factors like urban heat island effects to create a consistent record back to 1880.
Different agencies use slightly different baseline periods, methods for interpolating data-sparse regions (like the Arctic), and techniques for processing ocean temperature data. These methodological differences lead to minor variations in the exact annual anomaly, but the long-term warming trend and the ranking of exceptionally hot years are in unanimous agreement across all major datasets.
No. Climate change is defined by long-term trends over decades, not single years. A year ranking 2nd instead of 1st does not negate the warming trend, just as a record-hot year alone does not prove it. The trend is evidenced by the consistent upward movement of the temperature record, with each recent decade being warmer than the last.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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| Market | Platform | Price |
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| Poly | 53% |
| Poly | 25% |
| Poly | 12% |
| Poly | 6% |
| Poly | 3% |
| Poly | 3% |
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