$1.55M
1
6
$1.55M
1
6
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whethe
Prediction markets currently give about a 42% chance that 2026 will be the second-hottest year ever recorded. This is essentially a coin flip. The market sees it as slightly more likely than not that 2026 will fall just outside the top spot, but the odds are very close. A significant amount of money, over $1.5 million, has been wagered on where 2026 will rank, showing strong public interest in forecasting our climate future.
Two main factors are shaping these nearly even odds. First, the long-term trend is unmistakable. The last ten years have been the ten hottest on record. The baseline temperature for the planet is rising steadily due to greenhouse gas emissions, making any new year likely to be very hot. Second, 2023 and 2024 shattered temperature records. The extreme heat of these back-to-back years was partly driven by a strong El Niño climate pattern, which temporarily boosts global temperatures. The big question is how much the planet will cool after El Niño fades. Traders are betting that even with some cooling, the underlying warming trend is strong enough to keep 2026 near the very top of the list.
The main event to watch is the transition from the current El Niño to its opposite phase, La Niña. Forecasts from agencies like the NOAA suggest this shift could happen by mid-to-late 2024. La Niña typically has a cooling effect on global average temperatures. How quickly and strongly this develops will be a major signal for the climate trajectory into 2026. Beyond that, monthly temperature updates from NASA and NOAA throughout 2025 will help show if the planet is stabilizing at a new, higher plateau of heat or if post-El Niño cooling is more pronounced.
Prediction markets have a mixed but interesting record on climate questions. They often effectively aggregate scientific forecasts with public sentiment. For near-term climate records, they tend to be directionally accurate, correctly identifying the strong upward trend. However, their precision can be limited. A specific annual rank can be swayed by hard-to-predict short-term climate patterns, like the exact timing of a volcanic eruption that could cool the planet. The market's current coin-flip odds honestly reflect this core uncertainty: we know the trend is hot, but pinpointing the exact rank years in advance is difficult.
Prediction markets on Polymarket currently assign a 42% probability that 2026 will be the second-hottest year on record. This price indicates the market views a second-place finish as the single most likely outcome, but still sees it as less probable than all other outcomes combined. The market for 2026 being the hottest year trades at 32%, while the odds for a third-place or lower rank are 26%. With $1.5 million in total volume, this is a highly liquid climate prediction, reflecting significant trader engagement. The consensus suggests 2026 will almost certainly be a top-tier hot year, with traders narrowly favoring it to fall just short of the record.
Two primary dynamics shape these probabilities. First, the established trend of anthropogenic warming provides a strong baseline. The last ten years constitute the ten hottest years on record, with 2023 and 2024 setting successive new annual records. This makes any upcoming year, especially one preceding an El Niño peak, a candidate for extreme heat. Second, the developing El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle is critical. Current forecasts from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center suggest the recent strong El Niño, a major driver of record 2023-2024 heat, will transition to neutral conditions by mid-2024, potentially followed by La Niña. If this pattern holds, 2026 would likely be influenced by neutral or La Niña conditions, which have a moderating effect on global temperatures relative to El Niño years. This explains why the market prices a second-place finish (42%) above a first-place finish (32%).
The trajectory of ENSO is the largest variable. If El Niño redevelops more quickly or strongly than models project, the odds for 2026 being the hottest year would increase substantially. Conversely, a strong, prolonged La Niña would shift probability toward lower ranks. Other climate forcers, like a major volcanic eruption that injects sun-blocking aerosols into the stratosphere, could abruptly cool the planet and upend predictions, though such events are unpredictable. Monthly temperature data throughout 2025 and 2026 will act as leading indicators. If 2025 sets another record, it would signal that the underlying warming trend is overpowering cyclical ENSO effects, likely boosting 2026's odds for the top spot as well. The market will react sharply to official ENSO forecasts from agencies like NOAA and the UK Met Office.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on where 2026 will rank among the hottest years ever recorded. The resolution is based on NASA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index (GLOTI), a standard dataset for tracking Earth's average surface temperature. Years are ranked from hottest (1) to coolest, with ties resolved according to the rank of the tied year. The market will settle as soon as the final 2026 temperature data is published, typically in January 2027. The question is significant because it tests the trajectory of global warming against scientific projections and climate models. Interest stems from whether the current acceleration in warming, driven by greenhouse gas emissions and natural climate patterns like El Niño, will continue or if other factors might temporarily moderate temperatures. The ranking provides a concrete, data-driven measure of climate change's pace, cutting through political rhetoric and abstract forecasts. Scientists, policymakers, and financial analysts monitor these annual rankings to assess the effectiveness of climate policies, model accuracy, and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events linked to higher global temperatures. The outcome for 2026 will be compared to predictions from major agencies like NASA, NOAA, and the UK Met Office, which typically issue annual temperature forecasts in late December or early January.
Systematic global temperature records began in the late 19th century, with NASA's modern GLOTI dataset extending back to 1880. For decades, the hottest year on record was 1998, a powerful El Niño year. This record stood until 2005, then was successively broken by 2010, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2019, 2020, and 2023. The period from 2014 to 2023 now constitutes the ten hottest years ever measured, demonstrating a clear, sustained upward trend. The previous record, set in 2016 during a strong El Niño, was surpassed in 2020 despite neutral Pacific conditions, and then shattered again in 2023, which was approximately 1.2°C above pre-industrial levels. This historical context shows that while natural variability like El Niño can boost a single year's ranking, the underlying trend from human-caused greenhouse gas emissions is pushing the baseline temperature higher. Each new record year typically exceeds the previous one by only a few hundredths of a degree, but the consistent string of records is unprecedented in the instrumental era.
The ranking of 2026 is a direct indicator of the pace of climate change. A top-three finish would signal that the accelerated warming observed since 2023 is persisting, increasing pressure on governments to implement more aggressive emissions reductions under international agreements like the Paris Accord. Economically, hotter years correlate with more frequent and severe droughts, heatwaves, and storms, which disrupt agriculture, increase energy demand for cooling, and cause billions in infrastructure damage and insurance losses. For industries from farming to reinsurance, the probability of another record-hot year directly influences risk models and commodity prices. Socially, populations in vulnerable regions face greater health risks from extreme heat and food insecurity. The outcome also tests the predictive skill of major climate models. If 2026 ranks lower than expected, it might prompt re-evaluation of short-term climate sensitivity or the influence of natural aerosols. Conversely, another record would strengthen scientific consensus on warming trends and likely influence public opinion and climate litigation.
As of late 2024, 2024 is on track to be the hottest or second-hottest year on record, continuing the streak of extreme warmth. The transition from the 2023-2024 El Niño to La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean is underway. Historical patterns suggest the year following an El Niño peak (like 2024) can be very warm, but the second year after (2025) might see some moderation. However, the strong underlying warming trend means even a La Niña year can be among the warmest on record, as seen in 2022. Preliminary climate model runs and statistical forecasts for 2025 and 2026 will begin to be published by scientific agencies in late 2024 and throughout 2025. These forecasts will incorporate the expected state of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and other climate drivers.
The market resolves using NASA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index (GLOTI). This dataset combines surface air temperature measurements from land stations with sea surface temperature data from ships and buoys, creating a consistent global average from 1880 to the present.
The difference between record years is often very small, typically a few hundredths of a degree Celsius. For example, 2023 broke the 2016 record by about 0.15°C, which is considered a large margin in climate science. The exact value for 2026 will be compared to the final 2025 value.
Not always, but it increases the probability. El Niño events transfer heat from the ocean to the atmosphere, raising global surface temperatures. The record-hot years 2016 and 2023 occurred during strong El Niños. However, the background warming from greenhouse gases is now so strong that even neutral or La Niña years can be near-record warm.
NASA GISS typically releases its final, calibrated global temperature analysis for a given year in mid-January of the following year. Therefore, the final data for 2026 should be published around January 15-20, 2027, at which point this market will resolve.
Yes. A large volcanic eruption in the tropics that injects significant sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere could create a temporary global cooling effect for 1-3 years by reflecting sunlight. The 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo lowered global temperatures by about 0.5°C for two years. Such an event in 2025 or 2026 would make a top ranking less likely.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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| Market | Platform | Price |
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| Poly | 42% |
| Poly | 31% |
| Poly | 12% |
| Poly | 11% |
| Poly | 3% |
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