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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETScience

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Name: Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$2.72M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Vol

$2.72M

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $2.72M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.72M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record?	Poly	56%
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Poly	34%
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?	Poly	6%
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower?	Poly	4%
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?	Poly	3%
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

56%

Top Probability

$2.72M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whethe

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, July 14, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
**Category:** Science | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (170 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.

Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.

If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.

This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whethe

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.

Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.

If 202"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.72M
* **Total Liquidity:** $81.8K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 33.25)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $437.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 34.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $400.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.4% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $714.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $306.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 56.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 43.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $403.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.3% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $456.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.4% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETScience