SC-04 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $15.9K
1
8
SC-04 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $15.9K
1
8
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Republican 15-20% at 30.5%.
Polymarket
- Republican 15-20%30.5%
- Republican 10-15%29.5%
- Republican 20-25%14.5%
- Republican 5-10%9.3%
- Republican 25-30%6.2%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $15.9K
Reported volume · provider units
8
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The 2026 SC-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 SC-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The source defines the market's measure as the margin of victory: "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. The market resolves on the official count once it is certified, not on a projected or preliminary result [1]. Contracts are written by bracket, so a Republican margin contract is a different question from a contract on whether the Democratic candidate wins.
Wording differs in ways that matter. Some contracts ask whether the Republican candidate wins by a range, such as 15 to 20 percent, while another asks only whether the Democratic candidate wins. The source states that "If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket" [1]. Independent candidates "will not represent options for either party" [1], and a nominee replaced before election day is handled by name update rather than a new contract [1].
The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. The source also says the election is "currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1]. If results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. That fallback date is a rule, not a forecast of when results will be known.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z, and this review retrieved them later that day [1]. They describe the saved snapshot only. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities.
Eight markets from this one event are included, and the saved coverage reports no partial sample [1]. Within this set, the Republican bracket "Yes" prices run from 0.0485 for 0 to 5 percent to 0.305 for 15 to 20 percent, with the 30 percent or more contract at 0.064 [1]. The Democratic win contract shows 0.0615 for "Yes" [1]. The "Yes" prices across these eight contracts sum to about 1.09, which is not what a set of exclusive outcomes would sum to if the prices were probabilities. Readers should treat each price as a separate snapshot value.
Do not compare these prices with prices from other platforms. Those contracts may use different wording, brackets, tiebreak rules, or close times. Volume, which the source does not report here, would not measure liquidity or the number of traders anyway.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why any price is at its level, and it does not show current conditions after the snapshot. It does not show how many traders hold each position or whether prices could be traded at these levels. The sample description states that these are the saved markets for this event and "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Readers should check the full contract text and the final certified count before relying on any outcome.
References
- Polymarket: SC-04 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 16, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia entry covers a prediction market on the margin of victory in the 2026 South Carolina 4th congressional district House election. The source describes the 2026 SC-04 House election as currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026 [1]. The contract does not ask who wins. It resolves according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates, which the source defines as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates [1]. Each candidate's percentage is calculated by dividing that candidate's valid votes by the total valid votes cast in the election [1]. The contract treats party nominees in a specific way. Candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican Parties represent the "Democrat" and "Republican" options, and independent candidates do not represent either option [1]. Candidate names may appear in the contract for convenience. If a named candidate is replaced as a party's nominee before election day, the contract name is updated and the market resolves based on the replacement nominee [1]. Several rules govern edge cases. If the reported margin falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, the tiebreak rules depend on whether the tied candidates are listed or unlisted, and the ballot-listed last name is used to order listed candidates [1]. If two or more unlisted candidates tie, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. The source also states that the market resolves on the official vote count once it is made official, and that if a recount begins before the total is official, the market stays open until the recount is complete [1]. The primary resolution source is the official results of the election as published by the state electoral authority that certifies results, although an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00Z [1]. The market sample in this entry includes eight bracket contracts from the same provider event: several Republican margin brackets, a Republican 30 percent or more bracket, and a Democratic win contract [1]. The sample includes all saved markets for this event. Prices are observed snapshots that are not executable quotes, and the presence of these brackets does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the gap between the vote shares of the top two candidates in a specific House race, not simply the winner. Because the margin is a percentage-point difference, a contract on a bracket such as 5 to 10 percent depends on the official vote shares reported after certification [1]. The contract's design also means that a replacement nominee, an independent candidate, a tie, or a delayed count can each affect how the market is settled [1]. Traders reading the bracket prices should note that they are a snapshot from the provider observation time, not a current price, and that they do not show trading depth or the number of participants.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-16 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the contract count as the margin of victory?
The margin is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates, with each percentage based on the total valid votes cast in the election [1].
Do independent candidates count as Democrat or Republican options?
No. The source states that independent candidates will not represent options for either party, and that the Democrat and Republican options refer to the candidates nominated by those parties [1].
What happens if the margin falls exactly on a bracket boundary?
The market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1].
What happens if the election results are not known by the deadline?
The source states that if the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1].
What happens if a recount is requested?
If a recount is initiated before the vote total is official, the market remains open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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