SC-07 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $11.3K
1
9
SC-07 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $11.3K
1
9
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Republican 20-25% at 31.5%.
Polymarket
- Republican 20-25%31.5%
- Republican 10-15%27%
- Republican 15-20%22.1%
- Democrat Wins4.3%
- Republican 5-10%4.3%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $11.3K
Reported volume · provider units
9
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The 2026 SC-07 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 SC-07 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The contract defines margin of victory as "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" in the 2026 SC-07 House election [1]. Only the Democratic and Republican nominees count as options for those parties. Independent candidates do not represent either party [1]. A reported value that falls exactly between two brackets resolves to the higher bracket [1].
The rules say the election is "currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1]. This is contract wording, not confirmation of the event date. The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. Resolution depends on the official count, and a recount keeps the market open until it is completed and the vote is made official [1]. If results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1].
Ties follow separate rules. A tie between two listed candidates resolves to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first alphabetically [1].
Reading the snapshot
The market data was observed at 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z and retrieved at 2026-10-15T23:33:41.976Z [1]. These times describe this snapshot only, not live conditions.
The saved sample includes nine of nine markets, and the record marks it as not partial [1]. The source also warns that this does not establish that every possible real-world outcome is listed [1]. Brackets absent from the sample should not be assumed to be priced lower.
The Yes prices for Republican margin brackets are 0.335 for 20%-25%, 0.27 for 10%-15%, 0.2655 for 15%-20%, 0.0435 for 0%-5%, 0.041 for 5%-10%, 0.035 for 25%-30%, 0.0355 for 30%-35%, and 0.0405 for 35% or more [1]. Separately, the Democratic win contract shows a Yes price of 0.0475 [1]. That is a different question with different wording, so it should not be combined with the margin brackets. These prices are snapshot values, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
What remains uncertain
The supplied evidence contains no election results. It also does not explain why prices are where they are, and it provides no trader counts or liquidity measures. The only source is a single provider record, so the wording of other platforms' contracts is not covered. Ties, recounts, a possible replacement nominee (which would update the contract name), and the resolution fallback could all affect how a contract settles [1].
References
- Polymarket: SC-07 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract belongs to a Polymarket event on the margin of victory in the 2026 SC-07 House election. Its listed rules say the election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026 [1]. The market is built around the gap between the two leading candidates rather than simply who wins. Under the rules, the margin is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is calculated by dividing a candidate's valid votes by the total of all valid votes cast in the election [1]. The contract groups outcomes into brackets, such as a Republican win by 10% to 15% or a Democratic win. For the purposes of the market, candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican Parties represent the "Democrat" and "Republican" options, and independent candidates do not count as either option [1]. Candidate names may appear in the contract for convenience. If a named candidate is replaced as a party's nominee before election day, the contract name will be updated and the market will resolve on the replacement nominee [1]. The event page's snapshot shows nine saved markets, all of which are included in the sample. The listed prices for the Republican margin brackets range from about 0.04 to 0.34 for Yes shares, and the Democratic-win contract is priced at 0.0475 for Yes [1]. These are snapshots taken at the observation time, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Why It Matters
The contract measures how decisive the 2026 SC-07 House race will be, not only which party wins it. Because the margin is calculated from shares of valid votes, the brackets divide the possible outcomes into ranges of percentage points between the top two candidates [1]. A trader's position therefore depends on the size of the result as well as its direction. The contract also sets the rules that decide which bracket applies in edge cases. If a reported margin falls exactly on a boundary between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. Ties are handled by a separate rule that uses ballot-listed last names in alphabetical order, with special treatment when unlisted candidates are involved [1]. Resolution depends on the official count. The market resolves on the official vote count once it has been certified, and the primary source is the official SC-07 results published by the state electoral authority that certifies the election. Credible reporting with an overwhelming consensus may also be used [1]. If a recount starts before the total is official, the market stays open until the recount is complete and the vote is made official [1]. The listed end time for the market is 2026-11-04T04:59:00Z [1]. That is a listed closing time, not a confirmed date on which results will be known or the contract will settle.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
How is the margin of victory calculated?
The margin is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage equals that candidate's valid votes divided by the total valid votes cast in the election [1].
Do independent candidates count as Democrat or Republican outcomes?
No. Under the contract, independent candidates do not represent either party option. The Democrat and Republican options are based on candidates nominated by those parties [1].
What happens if a candidate is replaced before election day?
If a named candidate is replaced as a party's nominee before election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee [1].
What happens if a margin falls exactly between two brackets?
The market resolves to the higher margin bracket in that case [1].
What happens if the result is not known by the deadline?
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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