SC-02 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $24.2K
1
8
SC-02 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $24.2K
1
8
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Republican 5-10% at 26.6%.
Polymarket
- Republican 5-10%26.6%
- Republican 15-20%15.4%
- Republican 0-5%13.5%
- Republican 10-15%5.5%
- Republican 20-25%5.1%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $24.2K
Reported volume · provider units
8
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The 2026 SC-02 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 SC-02 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-18T03:00:06.384Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This event asks about the margin of victory in the 2026 SC-02 House election. The rules define the margin as "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. Candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican Parties represent the "Democrat" and "Republican" options, and independent candidates do not count for either party [1].
The contracts use percentage brackets. If a reported value falls exactly on a boundary, the market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. Ties follow separate rules that can send a tie to the lowest bracket for a particular candidate or to "Other" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z, but the rules state that the market resolves on the official certified count, and that a pending recount keeps it open [1]. The rules also say the election "is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026," and that results not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET resolve to "Other" [1]. These are contract terms, not announced event dates.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-18T03:00:06.384Z, and the system retrieved them at 2026-10-18T03:24:54.463Z [1]. They describe that moment only and are not live quotes. The saved sample includes all eight markets for this event, so the coverage is complete for the saved provider event [1]. The system's warning still applies: this does not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome [1].
The highest snapshot Yes price is for the Republican 10% to 15% bracket at 0.3775, followed by the Republican 5% to 10% bracket at 0.273 [1]. The lowest is the Democratic 5% or more bracket at 0.013 [1]. The eight Yes prices sum to about 1.10, so they should not be read as a probability distribution that adds to one. Volume is not included in this interpretation, and the snapshot does not show why any price is where it is.
What remains uncertain
Several limits apply. These are one-time snapshots, not executable prices, and they do not show available size. The eight contracts cover one event only, so they should not be combined with markets from other platforms or events, where wording, tie rules, or close times may differ. Differences in price between contracts with different wording do not by themselves indicate an opportunity.
The evidence does not show the election result, current polling, or any development after the observation time. Whether the Republican or Democratic candidate wins, and by what margin, remains unresolved in this record [1].
References
- Polymarket: SC-02 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-18T03:00:06.384Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 18, 2026 UTCOverview
The SC-02 House Election Margin of Victory contract concerns the 2026 House election in the SC-02 district. The provider describes the election as currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026 [1]. The contract does not ask who wins. It asks by how many percentage points the winner leads, measured against the second-place candidate. Under the contract rules, the margin is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is calculated by dividing a candidate's valid votes by the total valid votes cast in the election [1]. Only the top two candidates matter for the calculation. Candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican Parties represent the "Democrat" and "Republican" options. Independent candidates do not represent either option [1]. Candidate names in the contract are included for convenience. If a named candidate is replaced as a party's nominee before election day, the contract name is updated and the market resolves based on the replacement nominee [1]. The contract is organized into margin brackets. Under the rules, if the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. The event includes separate contracts for Republican and Democratic margins across several bracket ranges, including a Republican bracket for a margin of 25 percent or more and a Democratic bracket for a margin of 5 percent or more [1]. The primary resolution source is the official result of the election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying results. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. If a recount begins before the total is official, the market stays open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified [1]. The rules also state that if results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. That date is a fallback deadline in the rules, not an announced date for results. The provider's listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1], which is a listing time and not a statement about when results will be reported.
Why It Matters
The contract measures how competitive the SC-02 House race turns out to be, expressed as the gap between the top two vote shares rather than the identity of the winner [1]. Because the brackets are defined by that gap, the rules about valid votes, party nominees, tie handling, boundary values, and the certification source determine exactly how a result maps to a bracket [1]. Traders reading prices should therefore look at the bracket wording and the resolution rules together, since two contracts with similar names can differ in which party is named and where the boundaries fall [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-18 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the contract actually measure?
It measures the absolute difference between the valid-vote percentages of the first-place and second-place candidates in the SC-02 House election [1]. It does not measure turnout or the winner's total vote count.
How are independent candidates treated?
Independent candidates do not count as either the Democrat or Republican option [1]. The Democrat and Republican options refer only to candidates nominated by those parties.
What happens if a named candidate is replaced before election day?
The name in the contract is updated, and the market resolves based on the party's replacement nominee [1].
What happens if the margin falls exactly on a bracket boundary?
The market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1].
How is a tie resolved?
If the tie is between two listed candidates, the market resolves to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, it resolves to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, it resolves to "Other" [1].
What source determines the result?
The primary source is the official result published by the state electoral authority that certifies the election. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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