This prediction market addresses whether the United States will forcibly remove Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, from power by March 31, 2026. The market resolves to 'Yes' if Khamenei is detained, captured, surrenders, or is otherwise prevented from fulfilling his duties as Supreme Leader as a direct result of U.S. action. This scenario represents an extreme escalation in the long-standing adversarial relationship between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran. The topic sits at the intersection of U.S. foreign policy, regime change doctrine, and the stability of Iran's theocratic system. People are interested in this market because it quantifies the perceived probability of a direct, kinetic confrontation between the two nations, an event that would have profound geopolitical consequences. The market's timeframe extends through early 2026, covering a period that includes the potential transition to a new U.S. administration following the 2024 presidential election, adding another layer of political uncertainty. Recent years have seen heightened tensions, including the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA nuclear deal in 2018, the assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani by the U.S. in 2020, and ongoing Iranian proxy attacks on U.S. forces in the region, making the question of direct regime targeting a subject of serious strategic discussion.

Historical Context

The prospect of the U.S. forcibly removing an Iranian leader has precedent. In 1953, the CIA orchestrated Operation Ajax, a coup that overthrew Iran's democratically elected Prime Minister, Mohammad Mossadegh, and reinstated the Shah. This event fundamentally shaped modern U.S.-Iran relations, creating deep-seated Iranian distrust of American intentions. The 1979 Iranian Revolution, which ousted the U.S.-backed Shah, led to the seizure of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran and a 444-day hostage crisis, severing diplomatic ties. Since then, the U.S. has employed various strategies short of direct regime removal, including support for Iraq during the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), comprehensive sanctions, and cyber warfare like the Stuxnet virus discovered in 2010. The U.S. has directly targeted Iranian military leaders, most notably with the drone strike that killed IRGC Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad on January 3, 2020. This act demonstrated a U.S. willingness to conduct lethal operations against the highest levels of the Iranian regime but stopped short of targeting the Supreme Leader himself, a red line that has never been crossed. The historical pattern shows escalation but within bounds, making the forced removal of Khamenei an unprecedented escalation.

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