Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

How many new countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2028?

Total Volume

$604.10

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How many new countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2028?

Vol

$604.10

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $604.10

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $604.10

100%

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5 markets tracked

Will the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement be at least 2 after Issuance and before 2028?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement be at least 2 after Issuance and before 2028?	Kalshi	42%
Will the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement be at least 3 after Issuance and before 2028?	Kalshi	35%
Will the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement be at least 4 after Issuance and before 2028?	Kalshi	22%
Will the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement be at least 5 after Issuance and before 2028?	Kalshi	16%
Will the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement be at least 6 after Issuance and before 2028?	Kalshi	10%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

42%

Top Probability

$604.10

Volume

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About This Event

after Issuance and before 2028 If the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement is at least X after Issuance and before 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Examples of qualifying agreements include the agreements signed in 2020 and 2021 between Israel and Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and Morocco. Each country may be counted only once. Countries that have normalized relations with Israel as of Issuance do not qualify. X c

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many new countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2028?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** after Issuance and before 2028

If the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement is at least X after Issuance and before 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Examples of qualifying agreements include the agreements signed in 2020 and 2021 between Israel and Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and Morocco. Each country may be counted only once. Countries that have normalized relations with Israel as of Issuance do not qualify. X c

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement is at least 6 after Issuance and before 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Examples of qualifying agreements include the agreements signed in 2020 and 2021 between "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $604
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement be at least 6 after Issuance and before 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 31, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement be at least 5 after Issuance and before 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 31, 2028): Vol $12
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement be at least 4 after Issuance and before 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 31, 2028): Vol $210
  DATA: [Yes: 22.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement be at least 3 after Issuance and before 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 31, 2028): Vol $225
  DATA: [Yes: 34.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement be at least 2 after Issuance and before 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 31, 2028): Vol $157
  DATA: [Yes: 42.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

How many new countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2028?

Volume$604.10

Markets5

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KALSHI

Will the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement be at least 2 after Issuance and before 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 42.0¢No 58.0¢

KALSHIWorld

Will the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement be at least 2 after Issuance and before 2028?

If the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement is at least 2 after Issuance and before 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Examples of qualifying agreements include the agreements signed in 2020 and 2021 between

KALSHI

Will the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement be at least 3 after Issuance and before 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 34.5¢No 65.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement be at least 3 after Issuance and before 2028?

If the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement is at least 3 after Issuance and before 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Examples of qualifying agreements include the agreements signed in 2020 and 2021 between

KALSHI

Will the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement be at least 4 after Issuance and before 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 22.0¢No 78.0¢

KALSHIWorld

Will the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement be at least 4 after Issuance and before 2028?

If the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement is at least 4 after Issuance and before 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Examples of qualifying agreements include the agreements signed in 2020 and 2021 between

KALSHI

Will the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement be at least 5 after Issuance and before 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 15.5¢No 84.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement be at least 5 after Issuance and before 2028?

If the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement is at least 5 after Issuance and before 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Examples of qualifying agreements include the agreements signed in 2020 and 2021 between

KALSHI

Will the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement be at least 6 after Issuance and before 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 9.5¢No 90.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement be at least 6 after Issuance and before 2028?

If the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement is at least 6 after Issuance and before 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Examples of qualifying agreements include the agreements signed in 2020 and 2021 between

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How many new countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2028?

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Will the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement be at least 2 after Issuance and before 2028?

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Events (1)

How many new countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2028?

Markets (5)

Will the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement be at least 2 after Issuance and before 2028?

Will the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement be at least 2 after Issuance and before 2028?

Will the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement be at least 3 after Issuance and before 2028?

Will the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement be at least 3 after Issuance and before 2028?

Will the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement be at least 4 after Issuance and before 2028?

Will the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement be at least 4 after Issuance and before 2028?

Will the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement be at least 5 after Issuance and before 2028?

Will the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement be at least 5 after Issuance and before 2028?

Will the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement be at least 6 after Issuance and before 2028?

Will the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement be at least 6 after Issuance and before 2028?

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Will the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement be at least 2 after Issuance and before 2028?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How many new countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2028?

Will the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement be at least 2 after Issuance and before 2028?

Will the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement be at least 2 after Issuance and before 2028?

Will the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement be at least 3 after Issuance and before 2028?

Will the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement be at least 3 after Issuance and before 2028?

Will the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement be at least 4 after Issuance and before 2028?

Will the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement be at least 4 after Issuance and before 2028?

Will the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement be at least 5 after Issuance and before 2028?

Will the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement be at least 5 after Issuance and before 2028?

Will the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement be at least 6 after Issuance and before 2028?

Will the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement be at least 6 after Issuance and before 2028?

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