College Football National Championship Winner
PM $1.11M · K 63.45M contracts
2
68
College Football National Championship Winner
PM $1.11M · K 63.45M contracts
2
68
Polymarket vs Kalshi
Snapshot from
As of Oct 22, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC, Georgia is priced at 16.8% on Polymarket and 16.5% on Kalshi.
| Outcome (Yes price) | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| GeorgiaSame question, fine print differs | 16.8% | 16.5% | 0.3 pts |
| Miami (FL)Same question, fine print differs | 14.7% | 14.5% | 0.2 pts |
| Notre DameSame question, fine print differs | 14.5% | 12.5% | 2.0 pts |
| Ohio St.Same question, fine print differs | 14.5% | 12.5% | 2.0 pts |
| IndianaSame question, fine print differs | 8.1% | 7.5% | 0.6 pts |
| Ole MissSame question, fine print differs | 5.5% | 4.5% | 1.0 pts |
| AlabamaSame question, fine print differs | 4.3% | 4.5% | 0.2 pts |
| LSUSame question, fine print differs | 4.3% | 4.5% | 0.2 pts |
Yes prices for outcomes an automated review found to ask the same question on both platforms. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $1.11M · K 63.45M contracts
Reported volume · provider units
68
Saved contracts
16
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 22, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
About This Event
2026-27 If X wins the College Football Playoff National Championship Game, then the market resolves to Yes. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the NCAA. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. This market will close and expire after a winner is declared.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-13T03:00:06.088Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This sample comes from a Kalshi event titled "College Football National Championship Winner," listed under the 2026-27 season [1]. Each market asks whether one named team will win the College Football Playoff National Championship Game. The event excerpt states: "If X wins the College Football Playoff National Championship Game, then the market resolves to Yes." [1] It also says the market "will close and expire after a winner is declared." [1] Kalshi states that it is not affiliated with the NCAA [1].
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-13T03:00:06.088Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-13T04:08:08.677Z [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Among the included markets, Georgia has the highest Yes price at 0.195, followed by Ohio St. at 0.165 and Notre Dame at 0.145 [1]. Utah, LSU, Texas Tech and UCLA each show a Yes price of 0.015 [1]. The sample includes 12 of 52 markets in this event [1]. Lower prices for the teams shown here do not establish that any omitted team is less likely to win, because the omitted markets were not included in this snapshot. The 12 included Yes prices sum to about 0.96, but that total describes only this partial sample, not the full field.
Each market is a separate Yes/No contract. The prices should not be compared with other platforms' events or averaged across them, and the evidence contains no cross-platform comparison. Volume is not included in the excerpt, and no trader counts are given, so this snapshot does not show how liquid any market is.
What remains uncertain
The saved market records list an end date of 2027-02-23T04:00:00.000Z, but the event excerpt says the listed end time is "not supplied." [1] That date should not be read as an announced finish or resolution date. The contract closes after a winner is declared, and the evidence does not state when that will happen.
The evidence also does not explain why prices are at these levels, and it does not show what has changed since the observation time. Because this is a single snapshot from a partial sample, the current status of each market should be checked against a fresh source.
References
- Kalshi: College Football National Championship Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-13T03:00:06.088Z.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-13T03:00:06.088Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The event, "College Football National Championship Winner," is listed in the Sports category on Kalshi. Each contract asks whether one named team will win the College Football Playoff National Championship. The rule states: "If X wins the College Football Playoff National Championship Game, then the market resolves to Yes." [1] The event also says it "will close and expire after a winner is declared." [1]
The event excerpt lists its end time as "not supplied." The individual contracts show an end date of 2027-02-23T04:00:00.000Z [1]. This is a listed close time in the provider data. It is not an announced date for the championship game, and it does not confirm when the game will be played.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-13T03:00:06.088Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-13T03:53:34.913Z [1]. The figures describe that observation window, not live conditions when you read this.
Within the sample, Georgia has the highest listed Yes price at 0.195, followed by Ohio St. at 0.165 and Notre Dame at 0.145 [1]. Each contract also lists a No price. These are snapshots, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. Several contracts share a Yes price of 0.015, so the sample does not separate them further on price.
The sample includes 12 of 52 markets in this Kalshi event [1]. Markets were selected by Yes price, then volume. The evidence does not show prices for the 40 omitted markets, so no conclusion about them can be drawn from this sample. Volume is also not supplied as a figure in this record, and volume would not indicate liquidity or the number of traders in any case.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices sit at these levels, and it does not show how many participants are involved. It also does not supply an event-level end time or any information about the championship game beyond the contract rules.
Contracts on other platforms may use different wording or close times, so their prices should not be averaged with these. Price differences between contracts or providers are not, by themselves, evidence of an arbitrage opportunity. The sample also covers only one provider event, so it is not the full field of possible winners.
References
- Kalshi: College Football National Championship Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-13T03:00:06.088Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 13, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This market belongs to a Kalshi event titled "College Football National Championship Winner" for the 2026-27 season. Each contract asks whether one named school will win the College Football Playoff National Championship Game. The provider's rule is that if the named team wins that game, the market resolves to Yes [1]. The market closes and expires after a winner is declared [1]. The provider's status for the event was active when the record was saved [1]. Each named school has its own Yes and No contract. A Yes contract pays only if its named team wins the game, and a No contract reflects the other outcome for that team. The saved prices are snapshots of the order book at one moment. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities of any team winning. In the saved snapshot, the Yes price for the Georgia contract was 0.195 and the Yes price for the Ohio St. contract was 0.165 [1]. Differences between contract prices should not be treated as an arbitrage opportunity by themselves, because each contract has its own terms, liquidity, and settlement. The contract rules say the market does not depend on any single game date being announced in the market text. The provider excerpt states that the listed end time was not supplied [1]. The saved market records carry an end date of February 23, 2027 [1]. That date appears in the market data and should not be read as the date of the championship game or as an announced event date.
Historical Context
The College Football Playoff National Championship is a postseason college football bowl game. It is used to determine a national champion of the NCAA Division I Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS), and it began play in the 2014 college football season [2]. The game is held on a Monday in January and is the final game of the College Football Playoff, a bracket tournament made up of the top five ranked conference champions and the top seven ranked at-large teams selected by a playoff committee [2]. The playoff replaced the Bowl Championship Series and the BCS National Championship Game [2]. As an example of an earlier edition, the 2021 College Football Playoff National Championship was played on January 11, 2021, at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. It was the seventh such championship and determined the national champion for the 2020 season [3].
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single outcome: whether the named school wins the College Football Playoff National Championship Game. Because the rules tie resolution to the winner of that game, the market is about the final result of the postseason rather than regular-season standings or individual game results [1][2]. The game is the final game of a bracket tournament that includes conference champions and at-large selections chosen by a committee, so a team's path to the title depends on that structure [2]. For readers, the important points are that the contract settles only after a winner is declared, that its prices are snapshots, and that the saved sample covers only part of the event. The event record reports 52 total markets, and 12 are included in the saved sample [1]. The sample is ordered by Yes price, so it does not show the full field, and no conclusion should be drawn about teams that are not included.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-13 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a Yes contract in this event pay on?
A Yes contract resolves to Yes if the named school wins the College Football Playoff National Championship Game [1]. The market closes and expires after a winner is declared [1].
Does the price of a contract show the chance that a team wins?
No. The saved prices are snapshots and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities [1]. They reflect market prices at the time the record was saved, not a confirmed forecast.
When is the championship game played?
The game is held on a Monday in January and is the final game of the College Football Playoff [2]. The market record's end date of February 23, 2027 is not an announced game date, and the provider did not supply a listed end time [1].
Why does the sample not include every team?
The saved event has 52 markets and only 12 are included in the sample, which was selected by highest finite Yes price and then by volume [1]. Omitted teams are not shown in the sample, so their prices should not be inferred from the included data.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
16
Largest saved gap: 2.0 percentage points.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
