Brazil presidential runoff: Flávio Bolsonaro margin of victory
PM $192.18M · K 6.85M contracts
6
24
Brazil presidential runoff: Flávio Bolsonaro margin of victory
PM $192.18M · K 6.85M contracts
6
24
Polymarket vs Kalshi
Snapshot from
As of Oct 20, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, Flávio Bolsonaro is priced at 76.8% on Polymarket and 78.5% on Kalshi.
| Outcome (Yes price) | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flávio BolsonaroSame question, fine print differs | 76.8% | 78.5% | 1.8 pts |
| LulaSame question, fine print differs | 67.5% | 67% | 0.5 pts |
| Flavio BolsonaroSame question, fine print differs | 33.5% | 34% | 0.5 pts |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaSame question, fine print differs | 22.5% | 21.5% | 1.0 pts |
Yes prices for outcomes an automated review found to ask the same question on both platforms. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $192.18M · K 6.85M contracts
Reported volume · provider units
24
Saved contracts
4
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 20, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
On Oct 25, 2026 If the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff is at or above X then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the share of valid votes, excluding blank and null votes, received by Flávio Bolsonaro minus the share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Flávio Bolsonaro if Flávio Bolsonaro wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Flávio Bolsonaro loses. If Flávio Bolsonaro wins, the margin will be positive; if Flávio Bolsonaro loses, the margin will be negative; if Flávio Bolsonaro ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Flávio Bolsonaro runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed. This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The saved event is a Kalshi event titled "Brazil presidential runoff: Flávio Bolsonaro margin of victory" [1]. Its rules define the margin as the share of valid votes, excluding blank and null votes, received by Flávio Bolsonaro minus the share received by the candidate who finishes immediately behind, and state that "no rounding shall be applied" [1]. Each threshold market asks whether the margin reaches a stated level. The rules also say the market "will close and expire early if certified election results are published" [1].
Timing needs care. The rules text reads "On Oct 25, 2026," but every market's listed endDate is 2027-10-25T14:00:00.000Z, and the source states "Listed end time: not supplied" [1]. This snapshot does not resolve that difference, so readers should check the live provider page before relying on any date.
Reading the snapshot
The event was observed at 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z and retrieved at 2026-10-16T02:17:16.731Z [1]. The Yes prices in this observation were 0.805 for at least 1%, 0.685 for at least 3%, 0.495 for at least 4%, 0.355 for at least 5%, 0.27 for at least 6%, 0.145 for at least 7%, 0.06 for at least 9%, and 0.035 for at least 11% [1]. These are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. Yes prices fall as the threshold rises, which fits the nested "at least" structure of the contracts.
The sample includes all 8 saved markets for this event, and it is not flagged as partial [1]. All markets come from one provider, so no cross-platform comparison is possible. The saved data does not report volume or liquidity, so these prices say nothing about depth.
What remains uncertain
The saved sample has no thresholds between the listed values, such as 2%, 8%, or 10%. The sample warning notes that the included markets do not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome [1]. Nothing in the evidence explains why prices sit where they do, so this summary offers no reasons. The source describes the status as active at retrieval, but that is a past observation, and the current status should be confirmed directly on the provider's page.
References
- Kalshi: Brazil presidential runoff: Flávio Bolsonaro margin of victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 16, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia contract is a Kalshi event about the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff [1]. The margin is not a simple win or loss question. The contract rules define it as Bolsonaro's share of valid votes, excluding blank and null votes, minus the share of the candidate who finishes immediately behind him if he wins. If he loses, the margin is measured against the candidate who finishes first. A positive margin means he wins, a negative margin means he loses, and a tie for first place is scored as 0 [1]. Each market in the event is a threshold question asking whether the margin will be at or above a given level. The saved event contains eight such markets, at 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9 and 11 percentage points [1]. The rules state that each margin range includes its lower bound and excludes its upper bound, and that no rounding is applied. The rules give an example: a margin of 5.99999% falls in the 5 to 6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% falls in the 6 to 7% range [1]. Votes cast for the same underlying candidate under multiple party listings are summed [1]. The rules refer to an election date of October 25, 2026 [1]. The saved market records list an end date of October 25, 2027 at 14:00 UTC, which differs from the rules' date. The contract also states that it will close and expire early if certified election results are published [1]. A date in the contract rules is not an announced event date, so readers should not treat either date as confirmation of when results will be certified or when the market will settle. The saved price snapshot was observed at 2026-10-16 00:00 UTC. In that snapshot, the Yes price falls as the threshold rises, from about 0.81 for the 1% market to about 0.04 for the 11% market. These figures are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and volume shown alongside them does not measure liquidity or the number of traders.
Historical Context
Wikipedia describes the 1994 Brazilian general election as held on October 3, 1994. It was the second election held under the 1988 constitution and the second direct presidential election since 1960 [2]. This is historical background on Brazilian elections only. The supplied sources do not describe the 2026 runoff's candidates, campaign, or results beyond the contract rules.
Why It Matters
The contract turns a runoff outcome into a graded question about the size of the winning or losing margin rather than only who wins. Its rules specify the exact calculation, including the treatment of blank and null votes, the comparison candidate, the sign of the margin, the inclusive and exclusive range boundaries, and the early closure condition tied to certified results [1]. Those definitions determine how a given threshold market would resolve, so the rules matter more than the headline price.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-16 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
How is the margin of victory calculated under this contract?
The margin is the share of valid votes Flávio Bolsonaro receives, excluding blank and null votes, minus the share received by the candidate finishing immediately behind him if he wins, or by the candidate finishing first if he loses [1].
What happens if the margin is exactly on a threshold?
Ranges include their lower bound and exclude their upper bound, and no rounding is applied. For example, a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6 to 7% range rather than the 5 to 6% range [1].
What does the contract say about a negative or zero margin?
A negative margin applies if Flávio Bolsonaro loses, and the margin is 0 if he ties for first place [1].
When could this market close early?
The contract states that it will close and expire early if certified election results are published [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
Brazil presidential runoff: margin of victory
K 108.1K contracts
Minas Gerais: Flávio Bolsonaro margin of victory (runoff)
K 10.6K contractsTocantins: Flávio Bolsonaro margin of victory (runoff)
K 27.4K contracts
Brazil presidential runoff: Lula margin of victory
K 43.8K contracts
Brazil presidential runoff: which states will Flávio Bolsonaro win?
K 85.7K contracts
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Specific Margin of Victory
PM $1.4KMarket Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
4
Largest saved gap: 1.8 percentage points.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
