Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

First snow of the 2026 season

Name: First snow of the 2026 season
End: 2026-12-04T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$22.62K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

First snow of the 2026 season

Vol

$22.62K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $22.62K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $22.62K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

31 markets tracked

Will it snow in Indianapolis, IN by November 30?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(31)

Market	Platform	Price
Will it snow in Indianapolis, IN by November 30?	Poly	96%
Will it snow in Denver, CO by November 30?	Poly	95%
Will it snow in Buffalo, NY by November 30?	Poly	88%
Will it snow in Pittsburgh, PA by November 15?	Poly	88%
Will it snow in Detroit, MI by November 30?	Poly	88%
Will it snow in Pittsburgh, PA by November 30?	Poly	87%
Will it snow in Minneapolis, MN by November 15?	Poly	86%
Will it snow in Minneapolis, MN by November 30?	Poly	86%
Will it snow in Chicago, IL by November 15?	Poly	85%
Will it snow in Kansas City, MO by November 30?	Poly	83%
Will it snow in Chicago, IL by November 30?	Poly	82%
Will it snow in Boston, MA by November 30?	Poly	82%
Will it snow in Salt Lake City, UT by November 30?	Poly	80%
Will it snow in Detroit, MI by November 15?	Poly	79%
Will it snow in Salt Lake City, UT by November 15?	Poly	77%
Will it snow in Denver, CO by November 15?	Poly	76%
Will it snow in Minneapolis, MN by October 31?	Poly	71%
Will it snow in Boston, MA by November 15?	Poly	71%
Will it snow in Indianapolis, IN by November 15?	Poly	68%
Will it snow in Philadelphia, PA by November 30?	Poly	62%
Will it snow in Denver, CO by October 31?	Poly	62%
Will it snow in Cincinnati, OH by November 30?	Poly	59%
Will it snow in Buffalo, NY by November 15?	Poly	54%
Will it snow in St. Louis, MO by November 30?	Poly	48%
Will it snow in Kansas City, MO by November 15?	Poly	45%
Will it snow in Washington, DC by November 30?	Poly	43%
Will it snow in Buffalo, NY by October 31?	Poly	41%
Will it snow in New York City, NY by November 30?	Poly	32%
Will it snow in Dallas, TX by November 30?	Poly	28%
Will it snow in Salt Lake City, UT by October 31?	Poly	28%
Will it snow in Nashville, TN by November 30?	Poly	20%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

96%

Top Probability

$22.62K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed city that records any snowfall, including trace, between market creation and the listed deadline, 11:59 PM local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The observation day is each station's National Weather Service climate day (midnight to midnight local time). Each market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as a report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as a report has been published for every day of its windo

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** First snow of the 2026 season
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 4, 2026 (54 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed city that records any snowfall, including trace, between market creation and the listed deadline, 11:59 PM local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The observation day is each station's National Weather Service climate day (midnight to midnight local time). Each market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as a report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as a report has been published for every day of its windo

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Buffalo, NY records any snowfall on any day between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Snowfall for Buffalo, NY is measured only at station KBUF, which the National Weather Service reports as "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $22.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $9.4K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.42)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will it snow in Buffalo, NY by October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 41.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will it snow in Denver, CO by October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $882
  DATA: [Yes: 61.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 38.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will it snow in Minneapolis, MN by October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $727
  DATA: [Yes: 70.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 29.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will it snow in Salt Lake City, UT by October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 27.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will it snow in Boston, MA by November 15?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 19, 2026): Vol $431
  DATA: [Yes: 70.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 29.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will it snow in Buffalo, NY by November 15?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 19, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 54.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 46.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will it snow in Chicago, IL by November 15?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 19, 2026): Vol $685
  DATA: [Yes: 85.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 15.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will it snow in Denver, CO by November 15?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 19, 2026): Vol $183
  DATA: [Yes: 75.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 24.3% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will it snow in Detroit, MI by November 15?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 19, 2026): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 78.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 21.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will it snow in Indianapolis, IN by November 15?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 19, 2026): Vol $2.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 68.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 32.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will it snow in Kansas City, MO by November 15?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 19, 2026): Vol $220
  DATA: [Yes: 44.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 55.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will it snow in Minneapolis, MN by November 15?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 19, 2026): Vol $216
  DATA: [Yes: 85.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 14.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will it snow in Pittsburgh, PA by November 15?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 19, 2026): Vol $910
  DATA: [Yes: 88.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 12.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will it snow in Salt Lake City, UT by November 15?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 19, 2026): Vol $686
  DATA: [Yes: 77.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 23.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will it snow in Boston, MA by November 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 4, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 81.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 18.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will it snow in Buffalo, NY by November 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 4, 2026): Vol $174
  DATA: [Yes: 88.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 11.8% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will it snow in Chicago, IL by November 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 4, 2026): Vol $217
  DATA: [Yes: 82.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 18.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will it snow in Cincinnati, OH by November 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 4, 2026): Vol $507
  DATA: [Yes: 59.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 41.0% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will it snow in Dallas, TX by November 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 4, 2026): Vol $377
  DATA: [Yes: 28.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.0% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will it snow in Denver, CO by November 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 4, 2026): Vol $183
  DATA: [Yes: 95.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.9% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will it snow in Detroit, MI by November 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 4, 2026): Vol $564
  DATA: [Yes: 87.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 12.5% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will it snow in Indianapolis, IN by November 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 4, 2026): Vol $866
  DATA: [Yes: 95.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.4% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will it snow in Kansas City, MO by November 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 4, 2026): Vol $478
  DATA: [Yes: 83.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 17.0% (0.0%)]

### 24. Will it snow in Minneapolis, MN by November 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 4, 2026): Vol $624
  DATA: [Yes: 85.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 14.5% (0.0%)]

### 25. Will it snow in Nashville, TN by November 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 4, 2026): Vol $170
  DATA: [Yes: 20.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.0% (0.0%)]

### 26. Will it snow in New York City, NY by November 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 4, 2026): Vol $382
  DATA: [Yes: 32.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.0% (0.0%)]

### 27. Will it snow in Philadelphia, PA by November 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 4, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 62.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 38.0% (0.0%)]

### 28. Will it snow in Pittsburgh, PA by November 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 4, 2026): Vol $836
  DATA: [Yes: 87.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 13.0% (0.0%)]

### 29. Will it snow in Salt Lake City, UT by November 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 4, 2026): Vol $583
  DATA: [Yes: 80.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 20.0% (0.0%)]

### 30. Will it snow in St. Louis, MO by November 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 4, 2026): Vol $306
  DATA: [Yes: 47.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.5% (0.0%)]

### 31. Will it snow in Washington, DC by November 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 4, 2026): Vol $151
  DATA: [Yes: 42.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETClimate

First snow of the 2026 season

Volume$22.62K

Markets31

31 of 31

Sort:

POLYMARKET

Will it snow in Indianapolis, IN by November 30?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 95.6¢No 4.4¢

POLYMARKETClimate

Will it snow in Indianapolis, IN by November 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Indianapolis, IN records any snowfall on any day between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Snowfall for Indianapolis, IN is measured only at station KIND, which the National Weather Service r

POLYMARKET

Will it snow in Denver, CO by November 30?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 95.1¢No 4.9¢

POLYMARKETClimate

Will it snow in Denver, CO by November 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Denver, CO records any snowfall on any day between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Snowfall for Denver, CO is measured only at station KDEN, which the National Weather Service reports as "D

POLYMARKET

Will it snow in Buffalo, NY by November 30?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 88.3¢No 11.8¢

POLYMARKETClimate

Will it snow in Buffalo, NY by November 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Buffalo, NY records any snowfall on any day between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Snowfall for Buffalo, NY is measured only at station KBUF, which the National Weather Service reports as

POLYMARKET

Will it snow in Pittsburgh, PA by November 15?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 88.0¢No 12.0¢

POLYMARKETClimate

Will it snow in Pittsburgh, PA by November 15?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pittsburgh, PA records any snowfall on any day between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Snowfall for Pittsburgh, PA is measured only at station KPIT, which the National Weather Service repor

POLYMARKET

Will it snow in Detroit, MI by November 30?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 87.5¢No 12.5¢

POLYMARKETClimate

Will it snow in Detroit, MI by November 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Detroit, MI records any snowfall on any day between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Snowfall for Detroit, MI is measured only at station KDTW, which the National Weather Service reports as

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Next Market Closes

Calculating time remaining…

Dec 04, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

67¢

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First snow of the 2026 season