Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Kevin Warsh out as Fed chair?

Total Volume

$8.18K

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Kevin Warsh out as Fed chair?

Vol

$8.18K

Events

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $8.18K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $8.18K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2031?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2031?	Kalshi	79%
Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2030?	Kalshi	11%
Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2029?	Kalshi	7%
Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2028?	Kalshi	6%
Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

79%

Top Probability

$8.18K

Volume

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About This Event

Before Jan 2030 If Kevin Warsh leaves as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, X then the market resolves to Yes. Kevin Warsh must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period. If the person leaves the role due to death, i.e., if the person dies while holding the role, all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, o

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Kevin Warsh out as Fed chair?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Jan 2030

If Kevin Warsh leaves as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, X then the market resolves to Yes. Kevin Warsh must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period. If the person leaves the role due to death, i.e., if the person dies while holding the role, all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, o

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Kevin Warsh leaves as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Kevin Warsh must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period.

If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $8.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2031?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2031): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 79.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 21.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2030?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2030): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2029): Vol $84
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $3.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $2.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

Kevin Warsh out as Fed chair?

Volume$8.18K

Markets5

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KALSHI

Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2031?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 79.0¢No 21.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2031?

If Kevin Warsh leaves as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Kevin Warsh must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e.

KALSHI

Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2030?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 10.5¢No 89.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2030?

If Kevin Warsh leaves as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Kevin Warsh must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e.

KALSHI

Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2029?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 6.5¢No 93.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2029?

If Kevin Warsh leaves as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Kevin Warsh must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e.

KALSHI

Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 5.5¢No 94.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2028?

If Kevin Warsh leaves as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Kevin Warsh must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e.

KALSHI

Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 1.5¢No 98.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027?

If Kevin Warsh leaves as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Kevin Warsh must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e.

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Kevin Warsh out as Fed chair?

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Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2031?

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Events (1)

Kevin Warsh out as Fed chair?

Markets (5)

Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2031?

Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2031?

Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2030?

Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2030?

Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2029?

Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2029?

Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027?

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Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2031?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Kevin Warsh out as Fed chair?

Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2031?

Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2031?

Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2030?

Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2030?

Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2029?

Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2029?

Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027?

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