Georgia Senate Election Margin of Victory (First Round)
PM $27.2K
1
10
Georgia Senate Election Margin of Victory (First Round)
PM $27.2K
1
10
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 20, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Ossoff 9-12% at 26.5%.
Polymarket
- Ossoff 9-12%26.5%
- Ossoff 6-9%20%
- Ossoff 12-15%15.5%
- Ossoff 3-6%13.3%
- Ossoff 15-18%13%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $27.2K
Reported volume · provider units
10
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 20, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
The 2026 Georgia Senate election first round is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Georgia Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-17T09:00:05.996Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This Polymarket event asks how the margin of victory in the first round of the 2026 Georgia Senate election will fall. The source defines margin as "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. Each bracket is a separate Yes or No contract. Several rules affect how a reader should compare them. If a reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the market "will resolve to the higher margin bracket" [1]. Ties follow specific tiebreak rules, and the source says that if results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market "will resolve to 'Other'" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. That is a listed close time, not a statement that results will be known by then.
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-17T09:00:05.996Z and retrieved at 2026-10-17T10:22:58.779Z. These are record times, not live quotes. The sample contains ten Polymarket contracts with all markets included and no partial-sample flag [1]. Among the saved Yes prices, the Democratic 9% to 12% bracket is highest at 0.245, followed by Democratic 6% to 9% at 0.215 and Democratic 12% to 15% at 0.155. The Republican brackets are lower, with Republican 6% or more at 0.042 and Republican 0% to 3% at 0.0265 [1].
These numbers describe only the saved contracts at that observation time. A low price on one bracket does not show that an omitted outcome has a particular price. Prices are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and volume is not a measure of liquidity or trader count. Because the brackets belong to one provider event, they should not be combined with contracts from other platforms or events.
What remains uncertain
The snapshot does not explain why prices are where they are, and it does not show current conditions after the retrieval time. The source notes that "All saved markets for these events are included. This does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Readers should therefore treat the bracket list as the saved provider field, not a complete account of every possible result. Rules may also change if a party nominee is replaced before election day, since the source says the contract name "will be updated" in that case [1]. Actual resolution depends on official certified results, which are not part of this snapshot.
References
- Polymarket: Georgia Senate Election Margin of Victory (First Round). Provider data observed 2026-10-17T09:00:05.996Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 17, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract belongs to a Polymarket event titled "Georgia Senate Election Margin of Victory (First Round)" [1]. Rather than asking which candidate wins, it asks how large the winning margin will be in the first round of the 2026 Georgia Senate election, which the provider says is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026 [1]. The Wikipedia entry for the race describes the same election date and identifies it as the vote to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent Georgia [3]. The margin is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is calculated by dividing a candidate's valid votes by the total valid votes cast in the election [1]. Because the measure uses the absolute difference, it describes how far apart the top two finishers are, not which party is ahead. For this market, the Democratic and Republican nominees stand in as the options "Democrat" and "Republican." Independent candidates do not count as options for either party [1]. The provider states that the contract may name the candidates for convenience, and that if a named nominee is replaced before election day, the contract name will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee [1]. The individual contracts are price brackets. Each bracket asks whether the Democratic or Republican candidate will win by a stated margin range, such as 3% to 6%, or whether the margin will reach a stated threshold, such as 18% or more [1]. The price listed beside each outcome is a snapshot from the provider at the time it was observed. It is not an executable quote and it is not a verified probability. The contract does not resolve on a projection or early reporting. It resolves based on the official vote count once that count has been made official [1]. The provider's primary resolution source is the official results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the election, although an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures the size of the gap between the top two vote shares in the first round of the 2026 Georgia Senate election, not the identity of the winner [1]. Because the measure is an absolute difference, a race decided by a narrow margin and a race decided by a wide one can each be tracked through separate brackets [1]. The contract's rules also address edge cases that affect how a result maps to a bracket. A result that falls exactly between two brackets resolves to the higher margin bracket, and ties follow stated tiebreak rules based on ballot-listed last names [1]. Recounts also matter, since a market stays open until a recount is completed and the vote is made official [1]. The Wikipedia entry notes that a runoff is scheduled for December 1 if no candidate receives a majority [3]. The Polymarket rules state that a first-round margin is what this contract measures [1]. The two sources describe separate processes, so a runoff question would require its own contract rules rather than this one. Timing also needs care. The provider lists an end time of 2026-11-04T04:59:00Z, but that is the listed closing time for the contract, not a confirmed date on which results will be known [1]. The contract also says that if the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. That deadline is a rule in the contract, not an announced event date.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-20 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Does this contract ask who wins the Georgia Senate race?
No. The contract measures the absolute difference between the vote percentages of the top two candidates in the first round, and each bracket covers a margin range or threshold [1].
What happens if the result falls exactly on a bracket boundary?
The contract states that a reported value falling exactly between two brackets resolves to the higher margin bracket [1].
Are independent candidates counted as options in this market?
No. The provider states that independent candidates will not represent options for either party, so the options are limited to the Democratic and Republican nominees [1].
What if a recount is requested?
If a recount is initiated before the vote total is official, the market remains open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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