Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?
PM $276.7K
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Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?
PM $276.7K
1
1
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 27, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, Yes is priced at 1.6% on Polymarket.
Polymarket
- Yes1.6%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $276.7K
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the market capitalization of HYPE (HYPE) surpasses that of Solana (SOL) according to CoinGecko at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's data for each coin, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/hyperliquid and https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/solana, respectively. If CoinGecko stops showing relevant data, data from CoinMarketCap will be used instead.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-26T09:00:06.399Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This contract asks whether HYPE's market capitalization will exceed Solana's at some point before the deadline. The rules state that it "will resolve to "Yes" if the market capitalization of HYPE (HYPE) surpasses that of Solana (SOL) according to CoinGecko at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET" [1]. The word "flip" in the title refers to this market capitalization comparison, not to a price comparison.
The rules also name a fallback. If CoinGecko stops showing relevant data, CoinMarketCap data will be used instead [1]. The rules describe a 11:59 PM ET deadline on December 31, 2026, and the listed end time in the source is 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z [1]. These are the same deadline expressed in different time zones, so readers should use the ET wording when checking the rules.
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-26T09:00:06.399Z and retrieved at 2026-10-26T09:11:23.954Z [1]. It is a record of that observation, not a live reading, and the market's status at the time of the snapshot was "active" [1].
The single saved market lists a Yes price of 0.016 and a No price of 0.984 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they should not be treated as verified probabilities. The saved data does not include volume or trader counts, so no conclusions about liquidity or participation can be drawn from it.
The sample covers one market from one platform, and it is complete for that event. The coverage record shows one total market, one included market, and no partial sample [1]. The sample warning states that all saved markets for these events are included, but this does not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome [1].
What remains uncertain
The snapshot does not show what HYPE or SOL market capitalizations were at the time of observation, so it cannot be used to judge how close the comparison is. It also does not explain any price movement, and the evidence contains no recent news about either asset.
Because the rules rely on CoinGecko data, with CoinMarketCap as a fallback, readers should not assume the two sources would give identical results. The saved evidence does not show whether any data gap has occurred.
References
- Polymarket: Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?. Provider data observed 2026-10-26T09:00:06.399Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 26, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Polymarket contract titled "Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?" The contract asks whether the market capitalization of HYPE, the token shown on CoinGecko as Hyperliquid, will surpass that of Solana (SOL). The rules state that it resolves "Yes" if HYPE's market capitalization surpasses Solana's according to CoinGecko at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and "No" otherwise [1]. The rules name CoinGecko's coin pages for each asset as the resolution data, and say that CoinMarketCap data will be used if CoinGecko stops showing relevant data [1]. The contract is a "touch" style question. It does not ask where the two market capitalizations will stand on a single date. It asks whether HYPE's market capitalization is above Solana's at any point in the window defined by the rules [1]. Because the window runs from market creation to the deadline, a brief crossing during that period would count under the stated wording, even if the ranking later reversed. The provider lists the contract as active, with a listed end time of 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z [1]. That listed time corresponds to the 11:59 PM ET deadline in the rules. The end time is the contract's closing and resolution reference, not an announced event. The price shown in this entry is a snapshot taken from the provider's observation at 2026-10-26T09:00:06Z, which is the provider's observation time and not a current quote. The Yes price in that snapshot was 0.016 and the No price was 0.984 [1]. These are displayed prices, not executable quotes, and they should not be treated as verified probabilities.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a relative ranking by market capitalization between two crypto assets, as defined by CoinGecko's data for each coin [1]. Market capitalization is the figure the rules name, so the question is about that specific measure rather than about token price alone. Readers should note that the resolution depends on the stated data source and the stated window. The rules say that a Yes outcome requires HYPE's market capitalization to surpass Solana's at some point in that window, and that otherwise the outcome is No [1]. A reader interpreting the snapshot should keep the timing distinct. The observation time, the source retrieval time, the contract closing time, and the actual resolution are separate events. The contract's listed end time is a rule-based deadline, not evidence of what will happen by then [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-26 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the contract ask?
It asks whether the market capitalization of HYPE will surpass that of Solana according to CoinGecko at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET [1].
Which data source decides the outcome?
The rules say resolution uses CoinGecko's data for each coin. If CoinGecko stops showing relevant data, CoinMarketCap data will be used instead [1].
Does a single date matter for resolution?
The rules describe a window rather than one date. The outcome is Yes if HYPE's market capitalization surpasses Solana's at any point in that window, so a crossing at any time during it would count under the stated wording [1].
Is the displayed price a current probability?
No. The price shown here is a snapshot from the provider's observation at 2026-10-26T09:00:06Z, with a Yes price of 0.016 and a No price of 0.984 [1]. It is not an executable quote or a verified probability.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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