Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The event asks whether ANSEM will flip PUMP by a date in the title. Under the stated rules, the market resolves "Yes" if the market capitalization of The Black Bull (ANSEM) surpasses that of Pump.fun (PUMP) according to CoinGecko at any point between market creation and the specified date, timezone ET. Otherwise it resolves "No" [1]. The rules also say that if CoinGecko stops showing relevant data, CoinMarketCap data will be used instead [1].

Three deadlines appear in the saved data. The "by December 31, 2026" market lists an end time of 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z, the "June 30, 2027" market lists 2027-07-01T03:59:00Z, and the "December 31, 2027" market lists 2028-01-01T04:59:00Z [1]. These UTC times correspond to late evening ET on the title dates, so the listed close times are a feature of each contract, not an announced event. A reader should not assume a resolution date beyond what these fields state.

Reading the snapshot

The saved prices were observed at 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z, and the data was retrieved at 2026-10-15T17:20:31.451Z [1]. These are snapshots at those times, not live quotes and not verified probabilities. The provider's status for the event is listed as active [1].

The three contracts show Yes prices of 0.0525 for December 31, 2026, 0.12 for June 30, 2027, and 0.15 for December 31, 2027, with the matching No prices at 0.9475, 0.88, and 0.85 [1]. Within this snapshot, the Yes price rises as the deadline moves later. Each pair sums to 1, and the saved data does not include volume or order book depth, so it says nothing about liquidity or how many traders hold each view.

These three contracts come from one provider event, and all three are included in the saved sample, with no partial sampling flagged [1]. Because they share the same rules, comparing them is straightforward. Their prices should not be combined with contracts from other platforms or other events that use different wording or close times.

What remains uncertain

The saved data does not explain why any price is where it is, and nothing here indicates recent developments affecting either token. The snapshot cannot tell a reader how prices have changed over time or how accurate similar markets have been. The sample warning also states that the provider's listing does not establish that every possible outcome is included [1]. Finally, because the contracts resolve against CoinGecko data at any point before the deadline, the outcome depends on market capitalization readings that are not part of this snapshot.

References

1. Polymarket: Will $ANSEM flip $PUMP by ___?. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.