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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Which parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand?

Name: Which parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand?
End: 2026-11-07T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$35.81

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Which parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand?

Vol

$35.81

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $35.81

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $35.81

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will New Zealand First Party be part of the next Government of New Zealand?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will New Zealand First Party be part of the next Government of New Zealand?	Poly	49%
Will National Party be part of the next Government of New Zealand?	Poly	48%
Will Labour Party be part of the next Government of New Zealand?	Poly	44%
Will Green Party be part of the next Government of New Zealand?	Poly	44%
Will Te Pāti Māori be part of the next Government of New Zealand?	Poly	43%
Will ACT New Zealand be part of the next Government of New Zealand?	Poly	32%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

49%

Top Probability

$35.81

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first New Zealand government formed after the 2026 New Zealand general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 7, 2026 (120 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first New Zealand government formed after the 2026 New Zealand general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first New Zealand government formed after the 2026 New Zealand general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This marke"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $36
* **Total Liquidity:** $652
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.05)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Labour Party be part of the next Government of New Zealand?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $8
  DATA: [Yes: 43.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will ACT New Zealand be part of the next Government of New Zealand?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $2
  DATA: [Yes: 32.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Te Pāti Māori be part of the next Government of New Zealand?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $5
  DATA: [Yes: 42.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will National Party be part of the next Government of New Zealand?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $6
  DATA: [Yes: 47.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Green Party be part of the next Government of New Zealand?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $5
  DATA: [Yes: 43.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will New Zealand First Party be part of the next Government of New Zealand?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $10
  DATA: [Yes: 48.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics