Market snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform4 EventsPolitics

Will Trump eliminate capital gains taxes on crypto?

Reported volume

PM $121.6K · K 72.0K contracts

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

Will Trump eliminate capital gains taxes on crypto?

Vol

PM $121.6K · K 72.0K contracts

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Current odds

Snapshot from Oct 27, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC

As of Oct 27, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is December 31, 2026 at 3.1%, and on Kalshi it is Before 2027 at 3.1%.

Polymarket

December 31, 20263.1%

Kalshi

Before 20273.1%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

Price ChartContract price history

1 market tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will Trump eliminate capital gains taxes on crypto?

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Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff

Rules & Resolution

Differs

Saved matching review

Related contracts: 3 pairs

A saved event match does not establish identical settlement. Pair reviews appear with each price comparison.

Review notes

Saved notes may describe earlier contract terms. Use the pair status above and current provider rules.

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 1 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Will Trump eliminate capital gains taxes on crypto?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-01T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Federal capital gains taxes be cut by 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 1 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Will Trump eliminate capital gains taxes on crypto?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-01T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 1 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Will Trump eliminate capital gains taxes on crypto?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-01T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto by ___?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-01T05:00:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $121.6K · K 72.0K contracts

Reported volume · provider units

Saved contracts

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC

About This Event

Before 2027 If a bill that eliminates capital gains taxes for at least some digital assets becomes law before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The law must explicitly eliminate or permanently repeal the capital gains tax liability for at least one clearly defined class or category of digital assets. “Digital assets” are defined as assets existing solely in digital form and recorded on a digital ledger (including, but not limited to, cryptocurrencies, tokens, and non-fungible tokens). Temporary, partial, or conditional eliminations (e.g., tax relief with an expiration date or reductions rather than full elimination) shall not be considered as meeting this criterion. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Event: Will Trump eliminate capital gains taxes on crypto?
Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Reported event volume (provider units): PM $121.6K · K 72.0K contracts
Coverage: 4 of 4 saved contracts included.
Prices are saved observations, not executable quotes. Listed close dates do not promise settlement or payout time.

Contract: Will  becomes law before Jan 1, 2027?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCRYPTOCAPGAIN-26-27; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcryptocapgain-26
Observed: Oct 27, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Jan 1, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 72.0K contracts
Outcome Yes: 3.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 96.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If a bill that eliminates capital gains taxes for at least some digital assets becomes law before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The law must explicitly eliminate or permanently repeal the capital gains tax liability for at least one clearly defined class or category of digital assets. “Digital assets” are defined as assets existing solely in digital form and recorded on a digital ledger (including, but not limited to, cryptocurrencies, tokens, and non-fungible tokens). Temporary, partial, or conditional eliminations (e.g., tax relief with an expiration date or reductions rather than full elimination) shall not be considered as meeting this criterion. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Contract: Federal capital gains taxes be cut by 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-3539853; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/federal-capital-gains-taxes-be-cut-by-2026-20260812124430709
Observed: Oct 27, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $876.85
Outcome Yes: 5.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 94.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.

Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of

Contract: Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-665483; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-cut-long-term-capital-gains-tax-before-2027
Observed: Oct 27, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $2.6K
Outcome Yes: 7.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 93.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.

Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Contract: Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto before 2027?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-1068702; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/trump-eliminates-capital-gains-tax-on-crypto-before-2027
Observed: Oct 27, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Jan 1, 2027, 5:00 AM UTC
Reported volume: $33.9K
Outcome Yes: 3.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 96.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a bill into law or performs any executive action changing US tax law to eliminate capital gains tax on any cryptocurrency assets by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Such a bill must apply to US taxpaying persons in general; if a law applies only to specific companies or institutions, it will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market.

If capital gains is eliminated only for specific types or classes of crypto assets (e.g., only Bitcoin or Ethereum, only American issued cryptocurrencies, or only NFTs), it will still count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market.

If the bill is signed into law, or executive action is instituted before the resolution date, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of when it takes effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Saved cross-platform review:
polymarket-665483 / kalshi-KXCRYPTOCAPGAIN-26-27: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will  becomes law before Jan 1, 2027?"; listed deadline 2027-01-01T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027?"; listed deadline 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 22, 2026, 4:49 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 1 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Will Trump eliminate capital gains taxes on crypto?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-01T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-3539853 / kalshi-KXCRYPTOCAPGAIN-26-27: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will  becomes law before Jan 1, 2027?"; listed deadline 2027-01-01T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Federal capital gains taxes be cut by 2026?"; listed deadline 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 22, 2026, 4:49 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 1 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Will Trump eliminate capital gains taxes on crypto?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-01T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Federal capital gains taxes be cut by 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-1068702 / kalshi-KXCRYPTOCAPGAIN-26-27: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will  becomes law before Jan 1, 2027?"; listed deadline 2027-01-01T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto before 2027?"; listed deadline 2027-01-01T05:00:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 22, 2026, 4:49 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 1 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Will Trump eliminate capital gains taxes on crypto?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-01T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto by ___?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-01T05:00:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

Explain the named outcomes, material rule/deadline differences, and evidence limits. Keep Polymarket dollar volume separate from Kalshi contract counts. Do not average unrelated contracts, infer missing prices or changes, or describe unreviewed/related pairs as equivalent. Distinguish listed prices from executable bid/ask prices, fees and available size. Do not invent current news, confidence scores or settlement guarantees. Cite the provided source links and identify what further evidence would be needed.

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

Will Trump eliminate capital gains taxes on crypto?

Volume$72.01K

Markets1

POLYMARKETEconomy

Federal capital gains taxes be cut by 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe. Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Volume$876.85

Markets1

1 of 1

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Will becomes law before Jan 1, 2027?

kalshi

Will becomes law before Jan 1, 2027?

Yes: 3.1¢
No: 96.9¢

polymarket

Federal capital gains taxes be cut by 2026?

Yes: 5.5¢
No: 94.5¢

polymarket

Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027?

Yes: 7.0¢
No: 93.0¢

polymarket

Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto before 2027?

Yes: 3.1¢
No: 96.9¢

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

KalshiPolitics

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Next Market Deadline

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Jan 01, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

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Will Trump eliminate capital gains taxes on crypto?

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