Market snapshot: Oct 14, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsFinancials

How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?

Name: How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$983.00K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?

Vol

$983.00K

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $972.07K

Kalshi

markets · $10.93K

Price Spread

17.4%avg

max 23.8%

Price gaps

of 2 cross-platform

Calculate

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Volume DistributionTotal: $983.00K

99%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Related contracts

The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.39% by Jan 1, 2027?"; listed deadline 2027-01-03T00:35:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?"; listed deadline 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

Reviewed: Tue, 13 Oct 2026 22:05:04 GMT

Review notes

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 2 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-03T00:35:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?

Price difference

No data available

Cross-Platform Comparison(2)

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?DIFF Related contracts	61%	50%	11%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?DIFF Related contracts	33%	57%	24%

Single-Platform Markets(5)

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

100%

Top Probability

$983.00K

Volume

Markets

30.9%

Price Gap

About This Event

By Jan 1, 2027 If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above X on any business day between Oct 6, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This market covers the period between Oct 6, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. The first published value for each business

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, October 14, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?
**Category:** Financials | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** By Jan 1, 2027

If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above X on any business day between Oct 6, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This market covers the period between Oct 6, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. The first published value for each business

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.49% on any business day between Oct 6, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market covers the period between Oct 6, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $432.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $32.7K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 13.21)
* **Platform Split:** Polymarket (4 mkts) vs Kalshi (5 mkts)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.49% by Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $437
  DATA: [Yes: 57.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 43.0% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $183.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 33.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.8% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 23.8% spread between platforms.

### 2. Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.39% by Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $341
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $50.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 61.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 39.0% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 11.0% spread between platforms.

### 3. Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.44% by Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $402
  DATA: [Yes: 48.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.34% by Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $2.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 42.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.29% by Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $6.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $97.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $90.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.3% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Rules & Resolution

Differs

Saved matching review

Related contracts: 2 pairs

A saved event match does not establish identical settlement. Pair reviews appear with each price comparison.

Review notes

Saved notes may describe earlier contract terms. Use the pair status above and current provider rules.

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

KALSHIFinancials

How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?

Volume$10.93K

Markets5

POLYMARKETEconomy

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this mar

Volume$972.07K

Markets4

7 of 7

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KALSHI

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.29% by Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.5¢No 0.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.29% by Jan 1, 2027?

If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.29% on any business day between Sep 28, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market covers the period between Sep 28, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury P

Price difference: 11.0 percentage points

Related contracts

Reviewed: Tue, 13 Oct 2026 22:05:04 GMT

Review notes

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.39% by Jan 1, 2027?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average55.5%

Polymarket+11.0 pp

61.0%

Kalshi

50.0%

Difference:11.0 pp price difference

Polymarket higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 61.0¢No 39.0¢

KKalshi

Yes 50.0¢No 50.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.39% by Jan 1, 2027?

If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.39% on any business day between Oct 6, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market covers the period between Oct 6, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date from market creation to December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed val

KALSHI

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.44% by Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 48.0¢No 52.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.44% by Jan 1, 2027?

If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.44% on any business day between Oct 6, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market covers the period between Oct 6, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par

Price difference: 23.8 percentage points

Related contracts

The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.49% by Jan 1, 2027?"; listed deadline 2027-01-03T00:35:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?"; listed deadline 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

Reviewed: Tue, 13 Oct 2026 22:05:04 GMT

Review notes

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.49% by Jan 1, 2027?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average45.1%

Polymarket

33.2%

Kalshi+23.8 pp

57.0%

Difference:23.8 pp price difference

Kalshi higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 33.2¢No 66.8¢

KKalshi

Yes 57.0¢No 43.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.49% by Jan 1, 2027?

If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.49% on any business day between Oct 6, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market covers the period between Oct 6, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?

KALSHI

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.34% by Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 42.0¢No 58.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.34% by Jan 1, 2027?

If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.34% on any business day between Sep 28, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market covers the period between Sep 28, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury P

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Discussion

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Next Market Deadline

Calculating time remaining…

Jan 01, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

Saved price pairs

Largest saved gap: 23.8 percentage points.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?

How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?

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Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?

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Rules & Resolution

Saved matching review

Events (2)

How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

Markets (2)

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.29% by Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.29% by Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.39% by Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.39% by Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.44% by Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.44% by Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.49% by Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.49% by Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.34% by Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.34% by Jan 1, 2027?

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Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?

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Rules & Resolution

Saved matching review

How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.29% by Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.29% by Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.39% by Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.39% by Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.44% by Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.44% by Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.49% by Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.49% by Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.34% by Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.34% by Jan 1, 2027?

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