This contract asks whether Russian forces will control all of Chasiv Yar, a city in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, by the end of December 31. The contract is resolved by map shading rather than by news reports or official announcements. It resolves Yes if the entire municipality is shaded under one of two qualifying layers on the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine map by the deadline, and No otherwise [1]. The contract's listed end time is 2027-01-01 at 04:59 UTC, which corresponds to 11:59 PM Eastern Time on December 31, 2026 [1]. The municipality boundaries are taken from the Ukrainian Settlements layer on the ISW map. A small unshaded strip along the border does not prevent a Yes resolution if the rest of the municipality is qualifying shading [1]. Qualifying shading must be continuous and must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, the shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update, regardless of the date [1]. Only two layers count: Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain and Assessed Russian Advances. Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas and Claimed Russian Territory do not qualify [1]. Once a qualifying condition is met, later loss of that control is not considered for resolution [1]. The contract also addresses a negotiated settlement. If Russia gains actual control of the territory through a settlement, the contract resolves Yes even if the map does not show qualifying shading. An announced settlement that only gives Russia legal (de jure) control does not qualify, because actual control must be established [1]. If the ISW map becomes unavailable, DeepStateMap may be used as the resolution source. If both sources are permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Temporary glitches or errors in the map are disregarded [1].

Historical Context

Chasiv Yar is a city in Bakhmut Raion, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine. It has been largely in ruins since the mid-2020s as a result of the Russo-Ukraine War. Its January 2022 pre-war population of 12,250 had fallen to approximately 600 by May 2024, according to RBC News, because of evacuations caused by Russian shelling and fighting within the city [2]. The Battle of Chasiv Yar began on 4 April 2024 with the first direct Russian assault on the city. By early August 2025, Russian forces had captured the district east of a canal running through the city, crossed the canal, and claimed capture of the city itself. As of December 2025, the ISW reported continued fighting in the city [3]. These are historical accounts from the cited Wikipedia articles, and the most recent point they describe is December 2025. They do not establish the control situation on the date of this snapshot.

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