Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by...?
PM $154.3K
1
2
Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by...?
PM $154.3K
1
2
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is December 31 at 29.5%.
Polymarket
- December 3129.5%
- October 314%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $154.3K
Reported volume · provider units
2
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.508104° N, 37.278884° E in Kucheriv Yar, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Intersection Location in Kucheriv Yar: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar1.png Kucheriv Yar Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar2.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/RE7mStop1xTdzpaDA The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This Polymarket contract asks whether Russia will capture a specific intersection in Kucheriv Yar, Donetsk Oblast. The rules state that it "will resolve to 'Yes' if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.508104° N, 37.278884° E" [1]. Only shading under "Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain" or "Assessed Russian Advances" qualifies. Shading under "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas" or "Claimed Russian Territory" does not [1]. The shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle [1].
A negotiated settlement that gives Russia control can resolve "Yes," but an announcement giving de jure control does not. Actual control must be established [1]. If the ISW map is unavailable, DeepStateMap may be used, and if both are permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used [1].
The listed end time is 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z, which the rules describe as 11:59 PM ET on the specified date [1]. The title says "by October 31," so readers should note that the listed UTC time falls on November 1.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-15T18:41:32.779Z [1]. These are the times for this record. They do not show the price at any later moment.
In this saved snapshot, the Yes outcome is priced at 0.0315 and the No outcome at 0.9685 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The record does not include volume or any count of traders, so it says nothing about liquidity or how many participants hold a view.
The sample covers one market on one platform. Coverage shows one total market, one included market, and no partial sample [1]. The sample warning states that all saved markets for this event are included, but this does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome [1]. This record contains no other contracts to compare against, so no cross-platform or cross-contract conclusion is supported.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the price is where it is, and it contains no reporting on the front line beyond the resolution rules. It also does not establish whether the contract will close with the status described, since the outcome depends on future ISW shading and the resolution rules. Readers should compare this contract's wording with any other contract only after checking the resolution source, qualifying layers, and listed close time for each.
References
- Polymarket: Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by...?. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by October 31? is a Polymarket contract about control of a specific location in Ukraine. Kucheriv Yar is a Ukrainian village in the Pokrovsk Raion in Donetsk Oblast [2]. The contract does not ask whether Russia will take the village as a whole. It asks whether a single point is captured, as defined by a named military mapping source [1]. The market resolves to "Yes" if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.508104° N, 37.278884° E in Kucheriv Yar, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET [1]. The intersection counts as captured if any part of it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map by the resolution date. Otherwise the market resolves to "No" [1]. The rules list the listed end time as 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z [1]. Only two layers qualify: "Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain" and "Assessed Russian Advances" [1]. The rules state that shading under "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas" or "Claimed Russian Territory" does not qualify [1]. The shading must also persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle, or until the next finalized ISW update if ISW skips a day [1]. Temporary glitches or errors in the map are not considered [1].
Historical Context
Wikipedia describes the 2025 Dobropillia offensive as a Russian military operation with the primary goal of capturing the city of Dobropillia in western Donetsk Oblast. It lasted from 11 August to 29 November 2025, and it ended in status quo ante bellum, with initial Russian gains reversed and all involved settlements returning to Ukrainian control [3]. The available source does not establish whether Kucheriv Yar was among the settlements involved in that operation, so this article does not connect the two directly [3]. The source on Kucheriv Yar itself gives only its basic location within Donetsk Oblast [2].
Why It Matters
The contract measures a narrow, rule-defined outcome: whether a specific intersection in Kucheriv Yar is shaded under qualifying ISW layers by the deadline [1]. Because the rules tie resolution to a map and not to news reports of fighting, the outcome depends on how the named source displays control. Shading under the infiltration or claimed-territory layers would not count [1]. A negotiated settlement can count if it gives Russia actual control, but an announcement that grants only de jure control would not qualify [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 16:13 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the contract ask whether Russia will capture all of Kucheriv Yar?
No. The rules focus on a specific intersection at stated coordinates within Kucheriv Yar, and they say the intersection is captured if any part of it is shaded under a qualifying ISW layer [1].
Which map layers count toward a Yes resolution?
The rules name "Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain" and "Assessed Russian Advances" as qualifying layers. They exclude "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas" and "Claimed Russian Territory" [1].
What happens if Russia gains control and later loses it?
Once a qualifying condition is met, the rules say that any later loss of control will not be considered toward resolution [1].
Could a negotiated settlement resolve the market?
Yes, if Russia comes into control of the territory through a negotiated settlement, the rules say it qualifies for a Yes resolution even without qualifying shading. An announcement that gives Russia only de jure control does not qualify, because actual control must be established [1].
What is the backup source if ISW is unavailable?
The rules allow DeepStateMap to be used if the ISW map is rendered unavailable. If both are permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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